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Michael L. Shrader Richard H. McCuen Walter J. Rawls 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1980,16(1):49-55
ABSTRACT: With the increased use of models in hydrologic design, there is an immediate need for a comprehensive comparison of hydrologic models, especially those intended for use at ungaged locations (i.e., where measured data are either not available or inadequate for model calibration). But some past comparisons of hydrologic models have used the same data base for both calibration and testing of the different models or implied that the results of model calibration are indicative of the accuracy at ungaged locations. This practice was examined using both the regression equation approach to peak discharge estimation and a unit hydrograph model that was intended for use in urban areas. The results suggested that the lack of data independence in the calibration and testing of regression equations may lead to both biased results and misleading statements about prediction accuracy. Additionally, although split-sample testing is recognized as desirable, the split-samples should be selected using a systematic-random sampling scheme, rather than random sampling, because random sampling with small samples may lead to a testing sample that is not representative of the population. A systematic-random sampling technique should lead to more valid conclusions about model reliability. For models like a unit hydrograph model, which are more complex and for which calibration is a more involved process, data independence is not as critical because the data fitting error variation is not as dominant as the error variation due to the calibration process and the inability of the model structure to conform with data variability. 相似文献
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ABSTRACT: Several methods for synthetic unit hydrographs are available in the literature. Most of these methods involve the hand fitting of a curve over a set of a few hydrograph points, which can sometimes be a subjective task. Besides, the user often finds it difficult or simply neglects to adjust the generated unit graph to a runoff volume of one unit (inch, cm, or mm). It is the purpose of this paper to present to the design hydrologist a simple method to fit a smooth gamma distribution over a single point specified by the unit hydrograph peak and the time to peak with a guaranteed unit depth of runoff. 相似文献
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广东省的地质灾害与防治对策 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
广东省地质灾害类型多,分布广,频率高,危害大.地震、滑坡、崩塌、地裂缝、地面塌陷、地面沉降和软土地基变形等地质灾害是影响当地经济发展和城乡建设的消极因素.地质灾害的时间分布具有波动性,过去35年来存在两个明显的高发期,分别是1985-1992年和1997年至今;其空间分布具有区域耦合性,地质构造复杂、自然环境恶劣的粤西、粤北低山丘陵区和人类活动剧烈、经济发达的沿海平原地区都是重灾区.地质灾害与自然条件、人类活动关系密切.它们的防治应以防为主,防治结合,将生态与工程措施相结合,并调整人类的经济行为,保持生态环境的平衡. 相似文献
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Zia Qureshi 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1977,13(1):117-123
ABSTRACT: The Fort Walton Beach area is presently faced with an excessive drawdown of the potentiometric level in the upper Floridan aquifer. Based on available data, the potentiometric level in the Floridan aquifer has dropped 162 feet since 1936. This declining potentiometric level can lead to problems and possible loss of the natural resource on a long-term basis. However, if corrective measures or programs for proper management of groundwater resources are undertaken at this time, the potential problems may be averted. 相似文献
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Integrating soil carbon cycling with that of nitrogen and phosphorus in the watershed model SWAT: Theory and model testing 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Armen R. Kemanian Stefan Julich Valipuram S. ManoranjanJeffrey R. Arnold 《Ecological modelling》2011,222(12):1913-1921
In this paper we describe and test a sub-model that integrates the cycling of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed model. The core of the sub-model is a multi-layer, one-pool soil organic carbon (SC) algorithm, in which the decomposition rate of SC and input rate to SC (through decomposition and humification of residues) depend on the current size of SC. The organic N and P fluxes are coupled to that of C and depend on the available mineral N and P, and the C:N and N:P ratios of the decomposing pools. Tillage explicitly affects the soil organic matter turnover rate through tool-specific coefficients. Unlike most models, the turnover of soil organic matter does not follow first order kinetics. Each soil layer has a specific maximum capacity to accumulate C or C saturation (Sx) that depends on texture and controls the turnover rate. It is shown in an analytical solution that Sx is a parameter with major influence in the model C dynamics. Testing with a 65-yr data set from the dryland wheat growing region in Oregon shows that the model adequately simulates the SC dynamics in the topsoil (top 0.3 m) for three different treatments. Three key model parameters, the optimal decomposition and humification rates and a factor controlling the effect of soil moisture and temperature on the decomposition rate, showed low uncertainty as determined by generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation. Nonetheless, the parameter set that provided accurate simulations in the topsoil tended to overestimate SC in the subsoil, suggesting that a mechanism that expresses at depth might not be represented in the current sub-model structure. The explicit integration of C, N, and P fluxes allows for a more cohesive simulation of nutrient cycling in the SWAT model. The sub-model has to be tested in forestland and rangeland in addition to agricultural land, and in diverse soils with extreme properties such high or low pH, an organic horizon, or volcanic soils. 相似文献
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石窟文物病害成因分析及其对策研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
本文在概述石窟寺主要病害的基础上,结合典型灾例,从气象气候因素、地震活动、水文特征、环境工程地质条件、石窟寺结构和龛内文物自身的特殊性以及人类社会行为因素等6个方面详细分析了石窟文物病害形成的内部作用因素和外部环境条件,强调了综合减灾的重要性,并提出了相应的减灾对策。本文旨在为石窟寺的科学保护和文物修复工作提供理论基础和实践依据 相似文献
30.
随着大量制冷装置的建成和使用,氨制冷企业安全问题日益突出,定期检验作为保证在役氨制冷压力容器安全使用的一个重要环节,目前仍存检验依据不清、检验项目不明、检验针对性不足等问题.文中对氨制冷压力容器定期检验现状进行了介绍,对氨制冷压力容器损伤机理进行了分析和讨论,从损伤模式判别的角度提出了相应的检验策略,给相关人员提供一些... 相似文献