Understanding traffic crash under-reporting: Linking police and medical records to individual and crash characteristics

Objective: This study aligns to the body of research dedicated to estimating the underreporting of road crash injuries and adds the perspective of understanding individual and crash factors contributing to the decision to report a crash to the police, the hospital, or both.

Method: This study focuses on road crash injuries that occurred in the province of Funen, Denmark, between 2003 and 2007 and were registered in the police, the hospital, or both authorities. Underreporting rates are computed with the capture–recapture method, and the probability for road crash injuries in police records to appear in hospital records (and vice versa) is estimated with joint binary logit models.

Results: The capture–recapture analysis shows high underreporting rates of road crash injuries in Denmark and the growth of underreporting not only with the decrease in injury severity but also with the involvement of cyclists (reporting rates of about 14% for serious injuries and 7% for slight injuries) and motorcyclists (reporting rates of about 35% for serious injuries and 10% for slight injuries). Model estimates show that the likelihood of appearing in both data sets is positively related to helmet and seat belt use, number of motor vehicles involved, alcohol involvement, higher speed limit, and females being injured.

Conclusions: This study adds significantly to the literature about underreporting by recognizing that understanding the heterogeneity in the reporting rate of road crashes may lead to devising policy measures aimed at increasing the reporting rate by targeting specific road user groups (e.g., males, young road users) or specific situational factors (e.g., slight injuries, arm injuries, leg injuries, weekend).     

两起钢丝绳芯输送带断裂事故的分析及对策

通过两起钢绳芯胶带断裂事故的分析,提出了具体和有效的对策措施。     

大伙房水库入库河流物理生境评价及其对水质状况的影响

2012年8—9月对大伙房水库入库河流39个河段的物理生境特征和水质状况进行调查,并运用相关分析和冗余分析的方法识别物理生境特征与水质状况的响应关系.研究结果表明,大伙房水库入库河流物理生境质量等级为较好以上的河段占43.6%,一般河段占48.7%,较差河段占5.1%,物理生境质量好的河段主要位于浑河上游地区,质量较差的河段主要位于大伙房水库周边地区.大伙房水库入库河流总磷(TP)、氨氮(NH+4-N)、总氮(TN)多符合国家Ⅱ类地表水环境标准,五日生化需氧量(BOD5)和化学耗氧量(CODCr)较高,部分点位超过了国家Ⅲ类地表水环境标准.大伙房水库入库河流物理生境特征与水质状况显著相关,物理生境综合评价指数与水体中TP、NH+4-N、溶解性固体总量(TDS)、电导率和硅酸盐呈显著负相关.物理生境指标中人类活动、土地利用方式、植被多样性和栖境复杂性对水质影响较大,在流域水生态管理中应以减少人为活动干扰、合理配置土地类型、控制农业面源污染和恢复自然植被为主要对策.     

北京市污水处理厂出水中雌二醇的概率生态风险评价

随着北京市再生水补给河湖规模扩大,污水处理厂出水中雌激素活性物质引起的受纳水体生态风险日益受到关注。以雌二醇为例,利用物种敏感度分布(species sensitivity distribution,SSD)模型和联合概率曲线(joint probability curve,JPC)方法开展北京市污水处理厂出水的概率生态风险评价研究。通过文献调研整理了北京市约430个物种,利用美国环境保护署ECOTOX数据库获取了其中7个物种的雌二醇毒性数据,构建了正态分布、对数正态分布、Logistic分布、对数Logistic分布、Weibull分布、Burr III型分布和Gumbel分布等7个SSD模型,评价了北京市污水处理厂二沉池出水以及"混凝-沉淀-过滤-臭氧"、"超滤-臭氧"和"超滤-活性炭-臭氧"3种深度处理工艺组合出水的生态风险。结果表明,利用北京市7个物种雌二醇毒性数据构建的SSD模型具有合理性,SSD模型选择对生态风险评价结果的影响较大,对数正态分布、对数Logistic分布、Weibull分布和Burr III型均是可接受的SSD模型,其中拟合效果最佳的Burr III型分布模型给出了最保守的风险估计。Burr III型分布模型的模拟结果显示,北京市污水处理厂二沉池出水以及3种深度处理工艺组合出水的总体风险期望值分别为0.070、0.040、0.036和0.026,该结果可以为北京市未来水生态保护目标的设定以及污水处理工艺的升级改造提供决策参考。     

钦杭结合带加里东期榴闪岩超高压变质作用研究

对钦杭结合带首次发现的加里东期榴闪岩进行了详细的年代学、矿物学和变质作用研究。结果表明,榴闪岩的变质时代为454±4Ma,经历了早期角闪岩相进变质、中期榴辉岩相峰期变质和晚期角闪岩相退变质三个阶段,具顺时针P-T-t轨迹。早期角闪岩相进变质作用阶段的矿物共生组合为角闪石+斜长石+石英,温压条件分别为719℃~795℃和7.56Kpa~8.30Kpa;中期榴辉岩相峰期变质作用阶段的矿物共生组合为石榴子石+绿辉石(后期退变为透辉石+钠长石)±石英,温压条件分别为668℃~821℃和26.42Kpa~33.46Kpa;晚期角闪岩相退变质作用阶段的矿物共生组合为石榴子石+角闪岩+斜长石±石英(即榴闪岩),相应的温压条件分别为611℃~854℃和4.76Kpa~9.30Kpa。结合前人资料推断,区域内加里东期可能经历了榴辉岩相超高压变质→高温麻粒岩相退变质→角闪岩相退变质的演化过程。钦杭结合带首次厘定出加里东期超高压变质作用,表明华夏和扬子两大陆块碰撞拼合发生在加里东期。     

Analysis of a laser process for permanently degrading a photo-activated adhesive joint

A pulsed, laser process has been developed to reduce the permanent strength of photo-activated adhesive joints prior to work-piece de-bonding. The objective of this investigation was to gain insight into the relationships between carbon black content of the adhesive, laser delivery mode, heat transfer, and adhesive degradation. To do so, a variety of experiments were performed to characterize process sensitivity, radiation absorption within the adhesive joint, and thermal decomposition of the adhesive. In addition, heat transfer analysis was conducted to predict adhesive temperatures during the process.The results of this investigation indicate that the strength diminishment of an adhesive joint occurs after it has absorbed a train of high power pulses in rapid succession. The vast majority of strength diminishment occurs over a very narrow time window and is highly correlated to the rapid emission of gray smoke/vapor from the adhesive joint. For this to occur, the adhesive must contain carbon black. It is also highly correlated to a rapid increase in temperatures throughout the adhesive matrix. Laser pulse parameters that do not lead to this rapid increase, will not initiate adhesive degradation.The inclusion of carbon black into the adhesive promotes heat absorption and increased temperatures in the adhesive joint. These temperatures are large enough to enable adhesive decomposition. But the time span over which this happens is too small for significant damage to occur. It is currently hypothesized that high temperatures local to the carbon black particles may be the source of adhesive degradation.     

可靠性鉴定试验受试样品的软硬件联合测试技术

为了研究一种可靠性鉴定试验中受试样品的软硬件联合测试方法,首先总结了软硬件联合测试的目的、对象、实施时机及传统测试需要的改进之处和可借鉴之处,进一步研究了软硬件联合测试与传统可靠性试验的关系。然后在考查软件与硬件测试结合的基础上,提出了两层结构立体测试运行剖面的方法,即利用子剖面与环境剖面的对应关系建立软件测试与硬件测试的联系,将两种测试统一在同一时间轴上,得出了软硬件联合测试的一般流程。     

Copula-Based Bivariate Return Period Analysis and Its Implication to Hydrological Design Event

In univariate frequency analysis, the return period of an event has a one-to-one correspondence with its characteristic value, and the response of the hydraulic structure to hydrological load expressed by the hydrological event is monotonic. Thus, the design criteria of the hydraulic structure can be equivalently represented by the return period of the hydrological event, and consequently, design event-based design parameters evaluated have been widely used in practical engineering. However, the monotonic correspondence between the return period of the hydrological event and the response of the hydraulic structure does not exist in the multivariate context, and hydrological load with a larger joint return period does not always produce a more unsafe response. Misunderstandings of concepts of return periods of hydrological event, and estimation of hydrological design events usually take place in multivariate frequency analysis. This study theoretically derives the relations between different types of joint return periods, joint return period and its marginal return periods, the occurrence of bivariate extreme events and their return periods, and then the theoretical framework is tested. Results from the case contribute to the understanding of bivariate return periods of hydrological event, and the results demonstrate that design criteria cannot be equivalently represented by joint return periods of hydrological load, and design parameters of the hydraulic structure should not be determined by multivariate hydrological design events.     

ECONOMICS AND FEDERAL WATER PROJECTS1

While the science of economics is widely used in Federal water resource development projects, the usual procedure of applying an analytical discipline to arrive at a conclusion is reversed. The “answer” is usually provided ahead of time and economics is assigned the task of justifying the preconceived conclusion. This leads to a series of mitigatory effects in which economics as a science is not allowed to freely function. This article attempts to illustrate some of these “unusual” uses of economics in Federal water projects and note the “answers” we would logically expect from the economic discipline. Even though the theory of economics is often subverted, there are positive aspects to the role of economics in evaluating Federal water projects.     

液化石油气管线波纹补偿器爆裂事故分析

波纹补偿器爆裂事故，经济损失严重。用事故树方法进行定性分析，找出发生事故的主要原因，从安全设施、生产管理、安全管理方面采取防范措施，防止事故的重复发生。