浙江省植被物候变化及其对气候变化的响应

基于改进的Savitzky-Golay滤波算法重构了2001-2010年MODIS NDVI时间序列数据,反演了浙江近10 a来的植被生长状况,利用分段多项式拟合和动态阈值法提取了自然植被重要物候期(生长季开始时间、结束时间和生长季长度等),分析了植被物候期的年际变化趋势和空间分异特征,并结合同期气象数据,探讨了植被物候变化与气候变化的关系.主要结论如下:①浙江植被覆盖有所减少,整体下降趋势不显著,平均植被生长季为222 d,长度略有延长,其中开始时间提前趋势不显著,而结束时间推迟显著.②植被生长季为3月下旬至11月中旬,植被生长季的开始时间从北往南逐渐推迟,生长季结束时间相对集中,其中生长季延长的区域面积和缩短的区域面积相当.③气象要素与关键物候期参数的相关性分析表明冬季的热量供给是影响浙江植被生长开始的重要因子,植被生长季前期温度积累的增加有利于植被生长;生长季结束时间与当年温度呈极显著正相关,与当年降水和湿润指数的减少呈负相关,但影响不显著,从与各相关月、季度相关分析来看,秋季干湿程度对植被生长季结束时间影响相对较大.     

人类活动对流域旱涝事件影响研究进展

人类活动对流域旱涝事件具有决定性影响,已经成为国内外热点研究问题之一。通过系统分析国内外人类活动对流域旱涝事件影响机理的研究,结果表明:人类活动导致大气温室气体和气溶胶含量上升,全球气候变化加剧,导致流域极端水文过程时空格局改变。另一方面,人类活动引起的土地退化将影响流域水资源时空分布和水循环过程,削弱流域防洪抗旱能力;水利工程的修建将增大流域储水状况,有效应对流域旱涝事件,但同时存在加剧流域旱涝事件的风险。此外,论文还概述了人类活动对流域旱涝事件影响的量化方法。     

Climate change,risk management and the end of Nomadic pastoralism

Mobility has been argued to be the single factor explaining why some pastoralists do relatively well during extreme climatic events, while others do not, because mobility works by taking advantage of the spatial and temporal structure of resource failure by moving away from scarcity towards abundance. In spite of this, a common governmental management strategy is to resettle pastoral populations and thereby significantly reduce mobility. By revealing the underlying logic of mobility for Tibetan pastoralists, this paper questions official policy that aims at privatizing communally owned rangelands since it reduces pastoral flexibility and access to key resources. This is especially pertinent in the face of climate change. While little is known as to the specifics of how climate change will affect nomadic pastoralists, environmental variability is likely to increase. Consequently, policies resulting in decreased mobility may exacerbate the negative effects of climate change because of a positive feedback between climate and negative density dependence.     

Towards a sustainable future: a holistic inquiry of waste management behaviors of Singapore households

ABSTRACT

In 2018, Singapore produced a 7.7 million tonnes of waste, which is a significant amount of waste for a small nation-state. In line with the Sustainable Development Goal (SDGs) targets 11.6 and 12.5 of the 2030 Agenda, which addresses cities’ waste generation and management impacts, we ask the question of why Singapore households are not more proactively engaged in waste minimization, despite the presence of local waste minimization public campaigns. This study is the first known study to comparatively apply and test three major theories – social psychological, social-structural, and sociocultural theories, to explain household waste management behavior in Singapore. A national survey followed by regression analysis of 303 households was conducted. In our findings, we firstly describe current trends in household waste management behaviors. Secondly, we compared each applied theory’s ability to predict households’: (1) reuse and (2) recycling of a variety of household items; and (3) recycling frequency. We obtained partial evidence supporting the role of future-orientedness and environmental identity on householders’ variety reuse and recycling. Social-structural (age cohort x income, education) and situational variables (the convenience thesis), also predicted various waste minimization behaviors. Finally, householders’ knowledge of what is recyclable affected all forms of waste minimization behaviors. In view of the study’s findings, we propose a need for targeted planning and policy interventions for different segments of the Singapore population, and different short- and longer-term measures to initiate and achieve sustained household waste minimization.     

Benefits and challenges of streamlined life-cycle assessment for SMEs – findings from case studies on climate change impacts

ABSTRACT

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have a substantial role in the economy and job creation, but they are a remarkable source of environmental impacts. SMEs often lack skills and resources to compile environmental impact assessments; Streamlined Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) can provide efficient tools for this. An application of streamlined LCA relying heavily on database data, LCA clinic, was developed and tested on 23 SMEs in Finland. The climate change impacts were mainly caused by the production of raw materials, electricity and heating, whereas packaging and transportation were not influential. A significant amount of emissions were indirect, i.e. caused by production of raw materials. Thus, decreasing emissions from raw material production or selecting raw materials with a smaller environmental load could be a more efficient way to decrease emissions than reducing direct emissions such as those from electricity use. Lack of data in the LCA-databases was considered a challenge. An access to regionally customised datasets is important for the implementation of LCA clinics. Company feedback indicated that LCA clinics were useful in climate-friendly product design and increased environmental awareness, but did not lead to immediate actions to reduce emissions because of inadequate investment capabilities. Company managers had limited possibilities to use the results in marketing as comparative assessments would require a full LCA. Many company managers were willing to pay a fee sufficient to cover the costs of an LCA clinic, but some considered that the costs should be covered by external funding sources.     

不同区域气候条件影响下的纳帕海湿地植物叶绿素荧光特性

采用原位移地技术,研究了不同区域气候条件影响下,纳帕海4种常见湿地植物的株高、茎粗、生物量等生长特性,以及叶绿素a、叶绿素b、总叶绿素含量、叶绿素a/b值、光化学量子效率（Fv/Fm）、电子传递速率（ETR）、实际光化学量子效率（Phips2）、光化学猝灭系数（qP）、非光化学猝灭系数（NPQ）等生理生化指标,分析探讨了湿地植物对不同区域气候条件的响应差异和适应策略。研究发现气候条件的改变对湿地植物的生长、叶绿素含量及荧光参数产生重要影响。随着温度的上升,水葱Scirpus tabernaemontani和茭草两种广布种Zizania caduciflora均表现出良好的适应性,生物量、叶绿素含量、Fv/Fm、ETR、Phips2、qP值不同程度升高,生长状况良好。刘氏荸荠Heleocharis liouana也表现出较好的适应性,当气温上升到一定程度后,虽然Fv/Fm、ETR、Phips2、qP值降低,但其通过调节叶绿素含量、热耗散来减轻伤害,气候变化对其生长的影响较小。而北温带分布型的黑三棱Rhizoma scirpi yagarae对气候变化的适应性较差,当温度上升到一定程度后, Fv/Fm、ETR、Phips2、qP、NPQ都出现大幅下降,生长停滞,生物量下降,对温度上升极为敏感。可以推测,随着全球变暖,像黑三棱这样的物种,其生存将面临极大的威胁,而高原湿地生态功也将能受到损害。     

突发事件下城市群应急医疗床位共享建模

为给突发事件下城市群应急医疗床位共享提供理论依据,针对突发事件下城市群应急医疗床位共享问题,阐述突发事件下城市群应急医疗床位共享的必要性和可行性,并运用Multi-Hub理论,建立应急医疗床位在城市群集中的优化网络模型,并分析其内涵。在此基础上,采用基于层次分析法的线性回归方法,对多出救点、单个资源、多受灾点的应急医疗床位共享进行优化与讨论,并采用排队分配原则进行应急医疗床位具体去向的落实。研究结果表明:基于Multi-Hub理论的应急医疗床位区域集中优化模型与基于层次分析法的线性规划应急医疗床位调配优化模型,对突发事件下城市群应急医疗床位的共享具有优化和指导作用,能够提高突发事件下城市群应急医疗床位共享的效率,排队分配法能够在不超过医院容纳限度的前提下,保障应急救援的有序性和及时性。     

中国实现碳达峰的政策建议——基于碳定价机制模型的多情景模拟分析

碳定价机制是利用市场机制推动碳减排、减缓气候变化方案的核心内容,包括碳排放权交易和碳税等措施。尽管新冠肺炎疫情打乱了经济发展节奏,但是中国主动提高国家自主贡献力度,积极推进战略提升与政策强化。本研究构建并运用"碳定价机制模型"模拟涵盖不同主体范围及政策组合下的碳排放权交易市场运行情况,分析评估碳减排效果及经济影响,为丰富完善我国实现碳达峰的政策工具提供技术支持。     

碳中和——中国发展转型的机遇与挑战

碳中和是《巴黎协定》提出的到21世纪末在全球范围内实现人为活动排放的温室气体排放总量与大自然吸收总量相平衡,这是《联合国气候变化框架公约》应对气候变化问题的终极目标。本文从碳中和的目的、本质和进展分析入手,提出了在实现碳中和问题上中国的机遇与挑战。     

基于SPI的西北地区气候干湿变化

干旱是西北地区乃至全国主要的自然灾害之一。论文应用标准化降水指数(SPI)对西北地区近50 a来不同时段的特旱和重旱发生频次及其空间分布进行了计算分析,结果表明:标准化降水指数(SPI)作为一种干旱重建指标,适用于西北地区,也可以作为气候变化的监测指标;降水量的西增东减趋势与干旱频次的西部和东北减少、东南增加相对应,亦即气候变化在某种程度上缓解了新疆北部和青海西部的干旱,但加重了甘肃东南部和陕西中南部的干旱;与气候变化相对应,全西北地区干旱频次有总体下降的趋势,尽管干旱发生的地域持续在改变。