美欧中印“国家自主贡献”目标的力度和公平性评估

基于气候公平的不同原则,采用动态的衡量指标,建立了公平分配未来碳排放空间的综合性框架,计算了基数、平等、能力、责任和混合方案下2010~2100年全球累积碳排放配额的地区分布,并评估了美欧中印“国家自主贡献（Intended Nationally Determined Contribution,INDC）”目标的力度,提出了各国减排目标力度应当增加的程度.结果表明：美欧中印总体的INDC力度离实现2℃目标仍有差距,不同方案下的排放差距为8.0~9.6Gt CO₂,超出2030年2℃目标下全球排放的比例为20%~24%.在各自最为有利的方案下,中印能满足实现2℃目标的公平分配方案的低限要求.而在所有方案下美欧距离实现2℃目标的公平分配要求均有差距,需要进一步提高力度.公平指标的动态和静态衡量方法,以及历史责任计量起始年的选取,对公平分配的结果影响很大.     

1960~2012年长江三角洲地区雾日与霾日的气候特征及其影响因素

利用1960~2012年长江三角洲地区气象观测资料,对长江三角洲区域雾和霾的时空分布及其影响因素进行了分析.结果表明:长江三角洲地区雾、霾分布不均匀,雾日大值区主要分布在江苏省盐城中部沿海地区、安徽省黄山地区、浙江东部沿海地区,霾日大值区主要分布在以南京、杭州、合肥、衢州为中心的周边城市.时间变化上,城市化水平高的大城市年雾日数在20世纪80年代之前呈增加趋势,之后呈减少趋势;城市化水平低的小城市年雾日数也呈先升后降的趋势,但下降时间滞后于大城市.大城市雾日月平均分布冬季最多,春秋季次之,夏季最少,小城市雾日月平均分布呈双峰型特征,即春季和冬季较多.大城市和小城市年平均霾日数一直呈增加趋势且20世纪90年代之后差距变大.区域气候变化和城市化导致的温度上升,空气污染加剧导致的气溶胶增加,是造成长江三角洲雾日、霾日不同变化特征的原因,但它们之间的相互作用效应复杂,值得深入研究.     

Variation in vegetation cover and livestock mobility needs in Sahelian West Africa

A new approach was developed to evaluate the implications of the spatiotemporal variability of green vegetation for the dispersion of livestock that is required to access quality forage in semi-arid Africa. Maximum NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) at 1 km² resolution was determined for concentric rings (0–31 km radii) around 227 individual sample locations within the study area for 14 dates (between 1 April to 1 November) annually over the 2000–2010 period. A sigmoidal curve was fitted to points within the maximum NDVI × distance radii space to determine the asymptote distance (AD) – the radius at which further dispersion from the sample location does not lead to significant gains in access to green forage. AD was found to: increase with latitude (or increasing aridity); decline as the rainy season proceeds; and show no trend over the 2000–2010 period. These results introduce much-needed empirical data to current debates surrounding the scales of governance to support livestock mobility.     

An unforgettable event: a qualitative study of the 1997–98 El Niño in northern Peru

During the 1997–98 El Niño, Tumbes, Peru received 16 times the annual average rainfall. This study explores how Tumbes residents perceived the impact of the El Niño event on basic necessities, transport, health care, jobs and migration. Forty‐five individuals from five rural communities, some of which were isolated from the rest of Tumbes during the event, participated in five focus groups; six of these individuals constructed nutrition diaries. When asked about events in the past 20 years, participants identified the 1997–98 El Niño as a major negative event. The El Niño disaster situation induced a decrease in access to transport and health care and the rise in infectious diseases was swiftly contained. Residents needed more time to rebuild housing; recover agriculture, livestock and income stability; and return to eating sufficient animal protein. Although large‐scale assistance minimized effects of the disaster, residents needed more support. Residents' perspectives on their risk of flooding should be considered in generating effective assistance policies and programmes.     

Flattening the carbon extraction path in unilateral cost-effective action

Internalizing the global negative externality of carbon emissions requires the flattening of the extraction path of world fossil energy resources (=world carbon emissions). We consider governments with sign-unconstrained emission taxes at their disposal and seeking to prevent world emissions from exceeding some binding aggregate emission ceiling in the medium term. Such a ceiling policy can be carried out either in full cooperation or by a sub-global climate coalition. Unilateral action has to cope with carbon leakage and high costs, which makes a strong case for choosing a policy that implements the ceiling in a cost-effective way. In a two-country, two-period general equilibrium model with a non-renewable fossil-energy resource, we characterize the unilateral cost-effective ceiling policy and compare it with its fully cooperative counterpart. We show that with full cooperation there exists a cost-effective ceiling policy in which only first-period emissions are taxed at a rate that is uniform across countries. In contrast, the cost-effective ceiling policy of a sub-global climate coalition is characterized by emission regulation in both periods. The share of the total stock of energy resources owned by the sub-global climate coalition turns out to be a decisive determinant of the sign and magnitude of unilateral cost-effective taxes.     

陕西2012年极端天气气候事件与气象灾害

利用极端天气气候事件监测系统监测结果,分析了陕西1981-2012年极端天气气候事件出现次数和强度,发现2012年陕西极端天气气候事件次数少于多年平均值,但华阴7月2-4日、佳县7月24-28日极端降水事件强度之大,为历史罕见,佳县27日降水量、26-28日3d降水量均超过百年一遇的水平,造成严重人员伤亡和经济损失.说明即便是在极端天气气候事件出现次数少,气候年景较好的年份,局地也会出现历史罕见的极端事件和灾害.此外,还分析了极端天气气候事件次数与灾情年景评估指数之间的相关性.     

Environmental knowledge and human experience: using a historical analysis of flooding in Ireland to challenge contemporary risk narratives and develop creative policy alternatives

Focusing on three of the largest coastal cities in the Republic of Ireland, this paper highlights the importance of a historical analysis of flood hazards in contextualising current events and potential future risks. Over the last decade, the cities of Dublin, Cork and Galway have experienced several major coastal, river and pluvial floods. In the aftermath of these floods, two distinct but related narratives have dominated public discourse and official responses. The first narrative presents recent floods as unprecedented and as possible evidence of climate change. The second constructs floods primarily as natural events and assumes that the optimal means of reducing flood losses is to prevent flood events. In this paper, I suggest that these narratives are not supported by a historical analysis of exposure and vulnerability to flood hazards in Irish cities. This paper draws primarily on newspaper archives to construct a record of past flooding that challenges these narratives in several ways and in doing so offers lessons for similar cities in other countries. I contend that these narratives are perpetuated by a narrow form of knowledge production (quantitative risk assessment) and a narrow range of data (numeric instrumental records). Incorporating a broader range of sources and data types into risk and vulnerability assessments may illuminate more creative strategies for reducing both contemporary and future flood losses.     

Applying a problem-solving scenario in risk communication of low probability events

ABSTRACT

This study proposes a problem-solving scenario approach to enhance risk communication of low probability events, and aims to understand the effects of such an approach. An experiment was conducted in order to understand the comparative effects of presenting a casualty case with photos and demonstrating a problem scenario via an animation of participants’ anticipated responses to a simulated life-or-death choice. Forty-eight and 55 valid samples were collected respectively for two groups of participants. The results reveal a higher proportion of appropriate responses in the group presented with a problem scenario. Gender difference is found in the group exposed to a problem scenario - a larger percentage of males appear to respond more appropriately when presented with a life-threatening scenario without having being told what has happened. Having the ability to drive an automobile, which is presumably relevant to participants’ responses in a scenario associated with driving, does not, however, appear to differ significantly between the groups. The finding suggests that using a problem-solving scenario approach, compared with merely offering potential consequences of risks is more effective in stimulating appropriate responses to prevent casualty for information users.     

The humanitarian response costs of climate change

This research attempts to improve understanding of how climate change may affect international humanitarian spending, using existing international databases that track disaster occurrence and humanitarian costs. A range of potential impact scenarios is developed employing four distinct methodological approaches. The findings indicate that climate change will have a significant impact on humanitarian costs and the increase could range from a 32 per cent increase (taking into account only changes in frequency of disasters) to upwards of a 1,600 per cent increase when other criteria, such as intensity, are also taken into account. The paper further highlights that extreme weather events do not occur in isolation and the increasing interconnectedness of world economic and political systems has made disasters more complex and destructive. It makes a number of recommendations, including the need for more rigorous and systematic collection of disaster-related data and more constructive interaction between the humanitarian and climate change communities on future research, planning and action.     

Climate change and poverty in Africa

Africa is most vulnerable to climate change, although it makes the least contribution to factors that result in global and regional climatic changes. High levels of vulnerability and low adaptive capacity across the continent have been linked to, among other things, poverty. This paper discusses and analyses the relationship between climate change and poverty in Africa. It investigates the relationship between climate change and poverty patterns in Africa, analyses the resultant impact, and discusses potential adaptation policies for moderating the consequences of climatic changes on poverty in the region. The record shows that climate change is happening. What is not discussed or is little researched is the potential devastating impact of climate change on socio-economic development in Africa and the policy measures available to the continent for adaptation.