Neural network modelling for the analysis of forcings/temperatures relationships at different scales in the climate system

A fully non-linear analysis of forcing influences on temperatures is performed in the climate system by means of neural network modelling. Two case studies are investigated, in order to establish the main factors that drove the temperature behaviour at both global and regional scales in the last 140 years. In particular, our neural network model shows the ability to catch non-linear relationships among these variables and to reconstruct temperature records with a high degree of accuracy. In this framework, we clearly show the need of including anthropogenic inputs for explaining the temperature behaviour at global scale and recognise the role of El Niño southern oscillation for catching the inter-annual variability of temperature data. Furthermore, we analyse the relative influence of global forcing and a regional circulation pattern in determining the winter temperatures in Central England, showing that the North Atlantic oscillation represents the driven element in this case study. Our modelling activity and results can be very useful for simple assessments of relationships in the complex climate system and for identifying the fundamental elements leading to a successful downscaling of atmosphere–ocean general circulation models.     

Governing the termination problem in solar radiation management

ABSTRACT

Technologies for Solar Radiation Management (SRM) could limit global warming by manipulating the Earth’s radiation balance. A major objection to SRM is the termination problem: the catastrophic consequences that are likely to result from its sudden discontinuation. The termination problem limits the reversibility of policy choices and poses the risk of inadvertent or enforced program collapse. It is often considered a major impediment to the governability of SRM. In a first attempt to systematically engage with the question of institutional design for resolving the termination problem, the scenarios in which the termination problem arises as well as their respective drivers are identified. Scenarios and drivers are then used to derive institutional solutions in the form of excludable benefits, scientific oversight and phase-out mechanisms. While other objections to SRM may remain valid, it is concluded that the termination problem raises fewer challenges for international governance than is usually assumed.     

The importance of compatible beliefs for effective climate policy integration

ABSTRACT

European climate policy faced increasing constraints during the economic and Eurozone crises (2008–2014). The European Commission subsequently refocused policymaking toward integrating climate objectives into other policy areas such as energy and the 2014–2020 European Union (EU) budget. The conditions for successful climate policy integration (CPI) are analyzed, focusing on the compatibility of key actors’ beliefs. In renewable energy policy, CPI was successful as long as the co-benefits and related policy-core beliefs of energy security, rural economic development and climate action coexisted harmoniously. Once conflict among these policy-core beliefs emerged during the biofuels controversy, CPI was weakened as actors with competing economy-focused beliefs controlled the decision-making process. The case of EU budget climate mainstreaming illustrates how actors can add climate objectives into legislation despite meaningful discussion being ‘crowded out’ by other priorities. The findings highlight the importance of low conflict between departments, compatible beliefs and policy priorities for successful CPI.     

Climate laws in small European states: symbolic legislation and limits of diffusion in Ireland and Finland

ABSTRACT

The past decade has seen the introduction of framework climate change laws in several countries. The development of climate laws in two small European states, Ireland and Finland, both of which introduced national climate laws in 2015, are examined. Two questions are addressed. First, to what extent do later adopters of climate policy instruments draw on the examples of pioneering legislation? Second, how and why are pioneering climate policy instruments modified by later adopters? In both cases, the 2008 UK Climate Change Act was a source of inspiration in the early stages, particularly for civil society campaigns. Thereafter, domestic interests mobilised to remove from legislative proposals the most pioneering and ambitious parts of the UK model. The result, in both cases, was enactment of climate laws that resembled only very loosely the UK Climate Change Act.     

我国环境生态系统演变趋势

本文在对气候变化与环境生态系统现状进行了广泛调查的基础上，结合国内学者的研究，对近五年我国环境生态系统的演变趋势作了系统的回顾，并提出了保护我国生态系统的对策。     

乐清湾水质变化及其成因探讨

收集了乐清湾多年的水质监测资料，分析了乐清湾各水质指标在时间和空间上的变化规律。在此基础上，分别从乐清湾外部污染源变化，海岸工程引起的水动力变化和水产养殖业产生的内部污染源的变化等几方面，对乐清湾水质变化的原因进行了探讨。     

无锡市水环境变化及其引发的地质灾害问题与对策

随着经济的快速发展，无锡市水环境质量发生了很大的变化。由于在太湖、五里湖等湖泊周围大规模围湖造田，水域生态环境和原有水系格局被破坏，五里湖、梅梁湖水质恶化，每10年下降一个等级，太湖水质总体上呈现富营养化状态。水环境变化在一定程度上导致了地面沉降的发生，有的地区地下水位呈加速下降的趋势，有的地区已出现多个地下水位降落漏斗，后者面积达220km^2。应该加快区域供水建设步伐，调整工业结构，加强对水资源的管理和调控。     

试论酸雨问题及控制对策

本文论述了酸雨的形成、分布特点、变化规律、危害及控制措施等问题．     

Modelling the response of tree growth to temperature and CO2 elevation as related to the fertility and current temperature sum of a site

A methodology for simulating climate change impacts on tree growth was introduced into a statistical growth and yield model in relation to variations in site fertility and location implemented with current temperature sum. This was based on a procedure in which the relative enhancement in stem volume growth was calculated from short-term runs of a physiological simulation model for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and silver birch (Betula pendula Roth.) stands. These simulations were made for a set of stands with species-specific variations in stand characteristics, location and fertility type first in current climatic conditions and then in different combinations of CO₂ and temperature elevations. Based on these simulations, the relative enhancement of volume growth induced by the climate change (relative scenario effect, RSEv) was calculated and modelled in relation to: (i) CO₂ and temperature elevation, stand density and the competition status of the tree in its stand, and (ii) variations in site fertility type and current temperature sum of a stand. Finally, these transfer functions for RSEv were applied to adapt the stem volume growth in the statistical growth and yield model to reflect the response to climate change.     

基于GIS和RS的晋江市土地利用变化与可持续利用研究

采用GIS和遥感技术，在拟订土地分类系统的基础上，对1996和2001年晋汀市土地资源进行遥感解译，得到这两期1：10万土地利用现状图及数据库，分析了晋江市土地利用类型的构成与比例，以及土地利用面积动态变化状况。结果表明，晋汀市自1996年以来，城镇居民点与工矿用地扩展较大，面积增幅达5312．55hm^2，交通面积增加1507．02hm^2，林地而积增加了293．05hm^2，园地面积也增加了4．17hm^2；但耕地面积锐减，减少面积为6419．43hm^2，减幅为14．6％，其去向主要是建设用地、生态退耕、园地和池塘用地。在此基础上，认为土地利用变化存在的主要问题是：耕地面积锐减；土地利用结构小平衡；生态环境恶化等。应采取针对性的土地可持续发展措施，重视土地管理制度创新和土地利用的优化配置。