Breeding Distributions of North American Bird Species Moving North as a Result of Climate Change

Abstract:  Geographic changes in species distributions toward traditionally cooler climes is one hypothesized indicator of recent global climate change. We examined distribution data on 56 bird species. If global warming is affecting species distributions across the temperate northern hemisphere, these data should show the same northward range expansions of birds that have been reported for Great Britain. Because a northward shift of distributions might be due to multidirectional range expansions for multiple species, we also examined the possibility that birds with northern distributions may be expanding their ranges southward. There was no southward expansion of birds with a northern distribution, indicating that there is no evidence of overall range expansion of insectivorous and granivorous birds in North America. As predicted, the northern limit of birds with a southern distribution showed a significant shift northward (2.35 km/year). This northward shift is similar to that observed in previous work conducted in Great Britain: the widespread nature of this shift in species distributions over two distinct geographical regions and its coincidence with a period of global warming suggests a connection with global climate change.     

Are Modern Biological Invasions an Unprecedented Form of Global Change?

Abstract:  The uniqueness of the current, global mass invasion by nonindigenous species has been challenged recently by researchers who argue that modern rates and consequences of nonindigenous species establishment are comparable to episodes in the geological past. Although there is a fossil record of species invasions occurring in waves after geographic barriers had been lifted, such episodic events differ markedly from human-assisted invasions in spatial and temporal scales and in the number and diversity of organisms involved in long-distance dispersal. Today, every region of the planet is simultaneously affected and modern rates of invasion are several orders of magnitude higher than prehistoric rates. In terms of its rate and geographical extent, its potential for synergistic disruption and the scope of its evolutionary consequences, the current mass invasion event is without precedent and should be regarded as a unique form of global change. Prehistoric examples of biotic interchanges are nonetheless instructive and can increase our understanding of species-area effects, evolutionary effects, biotic resistance to invasion, and the impacts of novel functional groups introduced to naïve biotas. Nevertheless, they provide only limited insight into the synergistic effects of invasions and other environmental stressors, the effect of frequent introductions of large numbers of propagules, and global homogenization, all of which characterize the current mass invasion event .     

Carbon Monitoring Costs and their Effect on Incentives to Sequester Carbon through Forestry

Technically, forestry projects have thepotential to contribute significantly tothe mitigation of global warming, but manysuch projects may not be economicallyattractive at current estimates of carbon(C) prices. Forest C is, in a sense, a newcommodity that must be measured toacceptable standards for the commodity toexist. This will require that credible Cmeasuring and monitoring procedures be inplace. The amount of sequestered C that canbe claimed by a project is normallyestimated based on sampling a number ofsmall plots, and the precision of thisestimate depends on the number of plotssampled and on the spatial variability ofthe site. Measuring C can be expensive andhence it is important to select anefficient C-monitoring strategy to makeprojects competitive in the C market. Thispaper presents a method to determinewhether a forestry project will benefitfrom C trading, and to find the optimalmanagement strategy in terms of forestcycle length and C-monitoring strategyA model of an Acacia mangiumplantation in southern Sumatra, Indonesiais used to show that forestry projects canbe economically attractive under a range ofconditions, provided that the project islarge enough to absorb fixed costs.Modeling results indicate that between 15and 38 Mg of Certified Emission Reductions(CERs) per hectare can be captured by thesimulated plantation under optimalmanagement, with optimality defined asmaximizing the present value of profitsobtained from timber and C. The optimalcycle length ranged from 12 to 16 years andthe optimal number of sample plots rangedfrom 0 to 30. Costs of C monitoring (inpresent-value terms) were estimated to bebetween 0.45 (Mg C)^-1 to 2.11 (MgC)^-1 depending on the spatialvariability of biomass, the variable costsof C monitoring and the discount rate.     

Why a 100-Year Time Horizon should be used for GlobalWarming Mitigation Calculations

Global warming mitigation calculationsrequire consistent procedures for handlingtime in order to compare `permanent' gainsfrom energy-sector mitigation options with`impermanent' gains from many forest-sectoroptions. A critical part of carbonaccounting methodologies such as thosebased on `ton-years' (the product of thenumber of tons of carbon times the numberof years that each ton is held out of theatmosphere) is definition of a timehorizon, or the time period over whichcarbon impacts and benefits are considered. Here a case is made for using a timehorizon of 100 years. This choice avoidsdistortions created by much longer timehorizons that would lead to decisionsinconsistent with societal behavior inother spheres; it also avoids a rapidincrease in the implied value of time ifhorizons shorter than 100 years are used.Selection of a time horizon affectsdecisions on financial mechanisms andcarbon credit. Simple adaptations canallow a time horizon to be specified andused to calculate mitigation benefits andat the same time reserve a given percentageof weight in decision making forgenerations beyond the end of the timehorizon. The choice of a time horizon willheavily influence whether mitigationoptions such as avoided deforestation areconsidered viable.     

云南脆弱生态区相对资源承载力研究

以云南省及部分脆弱生态区为例,用相对资源承载力的研究思路和计算方法,分析了1990年和2000年相对土地资源承载力、相对经济资源承载力和综合承载力。提出可持续发展中的一些问题。     

Carbon Management in Agricultural Soils

World soils have been a major source of enrichment of atmospheric concentration of CO₂ ever since the dawn of settled agriculture, about 10,000 years ago. Historic emission of soil C is estimated at 78 ± 12 Pg out of the total terrestrial emission of 136 ± 55 Pg, and post-industrial fossil fuel emission of 270 ± 30 Pg. Most soils in agricultural ecosystems have lost 50 to 75% of their antecedent soil C pool, with the magnitude of loss ranging from 30 to 60 Mg C/ha. The depletion of soil organic carbon (SOC) pool is exacerbated by soil drainage, plowing, removal of crop residue, biomass burning, subsistence or low-input agriculture, and soil degradation by erosion and other processes. The magnitude of soil C depletion is high in coarse-textured soils (e.g., sandy texture, excessive internal drainage, low activity clays and poor aggregation), prone to soil erosion and other degradative processes. Thus, most agricultural soils contain soil C pool below their ecological potential. Adoption of recommend management practices (e.g., no-till farming with crop residue mulch, incorporation of forages in the rotation cycle, maintaining a positive nutrient balance, use of manure and other biosolids), conversion of agriculturally marginal soils to a perennial land use, and restoration of degraded soils and wetlands can enhance the SOC pool. Cultivation of peatlands and harvesting of peatland moss must be strongly discouraged, and restoration of degraded soils and ecosystems encouraged especially in developing countries. The rate of SOC sequestration is 300 to 500 Kg C/ha/yr under intensive agricultural practices, and 0.8 to 1.0 Mg/ha/yr through restoration of wetlands. In soils with severe depletion of SOC pool, the rate of SOC sequestration with adoption of restorative measures which add a considerable amount of biomass to the soil, and irrigated farming may be 1.0 to 1.5 Mg/ha/yr. Principal mechanisms of soil C sequestration include aggregation, high humification rate of biosolids applied to soil, deep transfer into the sub-soil horizons, formation of secondary carbonates and leaching of bicarbonates into the ground water. The rate of formation of secondary carbonates may be 10 to 15 Kg/ha/yr, and the rate of leaching of bicarbonates with good quality irrigation water may be 0.25 to 1.0 Mg C/ha/yr. The global potential of soil C sequestration is 0.6 to 1.2 Pg C/yr which can off-set about 15% of the fossil fuel emissions.     

Company engagement with supply chains to protect biodiversity and rare,threatened, and endangered species

Future global megatrends project a population increase of 2 billion people between 2019 and 2050 and at least 1–2 billion people added to the global middle class between 2016 and 2030. In addition, 68% of the world's population is projected to be living in urban areas by 2050. With these projected large population increases and shifts, demand for food, water, and energy is projected to grow by approximately 35, 40, and 50%, respectively, between 2010 and 2030. In addition, between 1970 and 2014 there was an estimated 60% reduction in the number of wildlife in the world and an estimated net loss of 2.9 billion birds, or 29%, in North America between 1970 and 2018. Loss of species populations and number of species is interconnected with reduced health of biodiversity and ecosystems. Human activity has been the main catalyst for these substantial declines primarily through impacts on habitats. These losses are accelerating. Since a company's supply chain environmental impacts are often as great or greater than its own direct environmental impacts, it may be prudent for companies to engage with their supply chains to protect and enhance habitats and biodiversity and protect rare, threatened, and endangered species. As one example, companies may have opportunities and strategic reasons to include requirements in their supplier codes of conduct and supplier standards for suppliers to protect biodiversity and rare, threatened, and endangered species, as well as additional requirements to expand or enhance habitats and ecosystems to increase biodiversity. This article follows one pathway that companies could pursue further and with greater speed—to engage with their supply chains to strengthen supplier codes of conduct to protect biodiversity and rare, threatened, and endangered species. The importance of forests, private land, and landscape partnerships is discussed as means to protect much more of the planet's biodiversity and rare, threatened, and endangered species. Lastly, the article identifies examples of opportunities for companies to more formally incorporate biodiversity into their business, supply chain, and sustainability strategies.     

What Matters Most: Are Future Stream Temperatures More Sensitive to Changing Air Temperatures,Discharge, or Riparian Vegetation?

Simulations of stream temperatures showed a wide range of future thermal regimes under a warming climate — from 2.9°C warmer to 7.6°C cooler than current conditions — depending primarily on shade from riparian vegetation. We used the stream temperature model, Heat Source, to analyze a 37‐km study segment of the upper Middle Fork John Day River, located in northeast Oregon, USA. We developed alternative future scenarios based on downscaled projections from climate change models and the composition and structure of native riparian forests. We examined 36 scenarios combining future changes in air temperature (ΔT_air = 0°C, +2°C, and +4°C), stream discharge (ΔQ = ?30%, 0%, and +30%), and riparian vegetation (post‐wildfire with 7% shade, current vegetation with 19% shade, a young‐open forest with 34% shade, and a mature riparian forest with 79% effective shade). Shade from riparian vegetation had the largest influence on stream temperatures, changing the seven‐day average daily maximum temperature (7DADM) from +1°C to ?7°C. In comparison, the 7DADM increased by 1.4°C with a 4°C increase in air temperature and by 0.7°C with a 30% change in discharge. Many streams throughout the interior western United States have been altered in ways that have substantially reduced shade. The effect of restoring shade could result in future stream temperatures that are colder than today, even under a warmer climate with substantially lower late‐summer streamflow.     

美国对外农业投资格局演变及其影响因素——兼论“一带一路”农业合作

对外农业投资是“一带一路”倡议的重要内容,研究美国对外农业投资特征,既可总结先行之国的发展经验,也可响应并适应主要竞争对手的投资行为,为充分利用两个市场、两种资源提供科学依据。本文立足对外直接投资理论,采用Logistic模型与面板数据分析方法,研究了2000-2018年美国对外农业投资的时空格局、影响因素及其对“一带一路”农业合作的启示。结果表明:（1）美国对外农业投资以食品加工等产前产后环节为主,主要分布于西欧等发达国家以及墨西哥、巴西等地理临近的发展中国家。（2）美国对外农业投资呈现显著的市场导向特征,同时也受到地理与文化距离、国家治理等东道国因素的影响。（3）对比中美对外农业投资特征,结合当前国际经贸形势与中国农业国际合作目标,建议中国进一步优化农业产业链布局,在促进实现联合国可持续发展目标的同时,提高中国在全球粮安领域的定价权与渠道把控力;进一步深耕既有对外农业投资市场,在降低地缘竞争压力的同时,充分挖掘潜在市场机会;关注“一带一路”沿线国家的农业技术需求,保证投资目标与东道国的投资需求相协调;尤需解决中国对外农业投资面临的文化与体制差异较大等现实问题,提高“一带一路”农业合作项目的可持续性。     

寒旱区湖泊冰封期有机碳氮同位素研究

为了探究寒旱区湖泊悬浮物和沉积物中颗粒有机碳氮稳定同位素来源与环境相关性,于2019年1月对南海湖冰封期悬浮物和表层沉积物有机δ¹³C、δ¹⁵N及C/N值进行了测定.结果表明：南海湖冰封期悬浮有机质δ¹³C的变化范围为-31.94‰~-27.87‰,δ¹⁵N变化范围为15.16‰~18.66‰,C/N变化范围为3.90~5.13.沉积物δ¹³C值变化范围为-25.39‰~-18.83‰,δ¹⁵N值变化范围为7.04‰~13.66‰,C/N值变化范围为7.66~12.23.悬浮有机质δ¹³C和δ¹⁵N最高值分别出现在进水口区和湖心岛区,沉积物则都为湖心岛区表层沉积物.端元混合模型分析表明,冰封期悬浮有机质主要由内源水生藻类主导,水质保护区藻类贡献率达到82.33%,与该区域浮游植物丰度最高相符.表层沉积物有机质的主要来源为内源水生植物,在水质保护区贡献率高达89.7%.相关性分析表明,在冰封期内悬浮有机质与表层沉积物δ¹³C、δ¹⁵N并没有明显的相关性,在低温情况下悬浮物δ¹⁵N与温度（P<0.025）、硝态氮（P<0.019）呈显著负相关,与亚硝态氮呈显著正相关（P<0.034）.原因主要与外源贡献率和生物作用的同位素效应有关.悬浮物δ¹³C和COD呈极显著正相关（P<0.008）,与盐度呈显著正相关（P<0.046）,COD和悬浮物δ¹³C很可能具有同源性,在湖泊冰封期具有一定的环境指示意义.