青藏高原隆升对我国西南地区气候的影响——从季风角度研究

青藏高原隆升作为新生代最重要的地质事件,对亚洲乃至全球气候演化产生了深刻的影响。我国西南地区因紧邻青藏高原、地形地貌复杂,该区青藏高原隆升的气候效应至今仍存在许多需要探讨的问题。本文通过整理总结青藏高原隆升与亚洲季风各子系统形成与发展的相关性,从季风的角度分析了高原隆升对西南地区气候的影响。主要结论如下：（1）对西南地区气候起控制性作用的东亚季风、南亚季风以及高原季风的形成与青藏高原的隆升密切相关。虽然东亚夏季偏南风在约22 Ma就因海陆差异形成,但冬季风却是在约7.2 Ma因青藏高原隆升才出现;南亚夏季风（西南季风）约在12 Ma因喜马拉雅山脉及临近山脉形成而出现,而其冬季风形成时间及原因与东亚冬季风相似,同样离不开青藏高原的隆升;高原季风形成的直接因素就是高原隆升,其约在36 Ma青藏高原主体隆升至约1500 m时才开始形成。（2）亚洲季风各子系统对西南地区的气候演变有重要影响。尽管东亚冬季风不能直接影响西南地区,但青藏高原隆升增强了海陆差异及其热源作用,在一定程度上扩大了东亚夏季风的影响范围,并给西南地区带来水汽;南亚冬季风使得西南地区变得相对寒冷干燥,而南亚夏季风因青藏高原的隆升得到进一步加强,其通过形成南北向的水汽通道成为西南地区温暖湿润气候的主导者;高原冬、夏季风随着青藏高原隆升使得西南地区季节性干冷与湿润气候的差异更加显著。     

秸秆与化肥减量配施对菜地土壤温室气体排放的影响

采用静态箱/气相色谱法,2016年11月至2017年9月通过田间原位试验,设置了无物料还田(CK)、常规化肥(F)、秸秆还田配施100%化肥(100FS)、秸秆还田配施70%化肥(70FS)、秸秆还田配施60%化肥(60FS)、秸秆还田配施50%化肥(50FS),对比分析了在化肥减量的基础上,配施秸秆处理的菜地(莴笋-卷心菜-辣椒轮作)土壤CO_2、CH_4、N_2O动态变化特征及温室效应,研究秸秆与化肥减量配施对菜地温室气体排放的影响.结果表明,土壤CO_2、CH_4、N_2O排放具有一定的季节变化规律,排放高峰主要集中在4~8月,且在施肥灌水后均会出现气体的排放峰.秸秆与化肥配施较常规施肥(F)处理提高了土壤N_2O排放量,累积排放量及其排放系数,其中100FS处理的效果最为明显,辣椒季的累积排放通量明显高于莴笋季和卷心菜季,高达60.76 kg·hm~(-2)(P0.05),N_2O的排放系数(以N_2O-N/N计)为0.138 kg·kg-1,而秸秆与化肥减量配施较100FS处理可以降低氮肥的N_2O排放系数.与对照CK和F处理相比,70FS处理降低了土壤CO_2排放量和累积排放量,分别为55.28~1 831.62 mg·(m2·h)-1和7 502.13~25 988.55 kg·hm~(-2),而其他秸秆与化肥配施处理均增加了CO_2累积排放通量,尤其是60FS和50FS处理.对土壤CH_4排放而言,辣椒季的排放波动较大,除CK外,各处理的土壤CH_4累积排放量多为负值,表现为大气中CH_4汇;秸秆与化肥减量30%~50%配施处理均降低了辣椒季的土壤CH_4排放量和累积排放通量,而100FS处理提高了CH_4排放量和累积排放通量.与CK和F处理相比,除70FS外,100FS、60FS和50FS均显著提高了GWP.总体上,从温室气体排放角度,在常规化肥施用的基础上减量30%再与秸秆配施可以降低土壤CO_2和CH_4排放,缓解温室气体的增温潜势,而对土壤N_2O减排效果不显著.     

基于结构方程模型的陕北退耕区农业产业-资源系统耦合机制分析——以吴起县为例

农业产业-资源耦合机制通过改变农业资源利用方向和强度调控农业产业-资源系统耦合路径,影响系统耦合效果。利用结构方程模型,通过对典型退耕区域——陕北吴起县2016年497户农户调研资料的分析,验证了政策、信息（技术、市场）、农业资源、农业产业是系统耦合机制的基本构成和重要驱动要素,该县域已形成了相对稳定的多维链型耦合机制。在这一机制作用下,农业产业有所发展,但仅停留在资源显性利用上,农业产业-资源系统局部相悖,系统对经济效益总的标准化路径系数为0.112,且产业对经济效益的路径系数仅为-0.047;从各驱动要素间相互作用来看,农业产业与农业资源单向作用,系统部分链网缺失,说明目前的耦合机制不能有效支撑农业产业-资源系统的良性运行,具体表现为：未充分挖掘林草生态系统的经济功能,资源未达到最优配置。因而,下一步需通过对政策、信息（技术、市场）、农业资源、农业产业等要素的优化组合,构建新的良性耦合机制,进而实现吴起县农业产业-资源系统的优化耦合,促进退耕区生态文明建设。     

The gap report of global climate change mitigation,finance, and governance after the United States declared its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement

On 1 June 2017, the US President Donald Trump officially announced the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, thus the study on the reasons of withdrawal, the potential impacts, and coping strategies has become a focus among policy circles and of the international community. Based on the self-developed US Policy Assessment Model, this paper systematically evaluates the three potential “major deficits” in terms of mitigation, climate finance, and global climate governance, as a result of the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and puts forward policy suggestions for coping with such transformations accordingly. The study shows that the United States ’withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will affect the existence and implementation of successive climate policies and result in an additional 8.8–13.4% increase in the global emissions reduction deficit. The United States’ withdrawal will also deteriorate the existing climate finance mechanism. The Green Climate Fund (GCF)’s funding gap will increase by US$2 billion, while the gap of long-term climate finance will increase by about US$5 billion a year. Either the China–EU or the “BASIC plus” mechanism could fill the governance deficit caused by the United States and the lack of political momentum may continue for a while in the future.     

Man in the Light of Current Ecological Problems

The interaction of man and nature is considered in terms of classical ecology, which is becoming a synthetic systemic science based on a set of other sciences. The divisions of modern human ecology that deal with different organizational levels of ecological systems have been developed to different degrees. Attention is given to the necessity of discrediting the mechanistic concept of opposition between man and nature and taking into account the specific ecological functions of man related to group adaptation (culture), as well as the global role of all living organisms in the maintenance of environmental conditions on Earth.     

Using global sensitivity analysis of demographic models for ecological impact assessment

Population viability analysis (PVA) is widely used to assess population‐level impacts of environmental changes on species. When combined with sensitivity analysis, PVA yields insights into the effects of parameter and model structure uncertainty. This helps researchers prioritize efforts for further data collection so that model improvements are efficient and helps managers prioritize conservation and management actions. Usually, sensitivity is analyzed by varying one input parameter at a time and observing the influence that variation has over model outcomes. This approach does not account for interactions among parameters. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) overcomes this limitation by varying several model inputs simultaneously. Then, regression techniques allow measuring the importance of input‐parameter uncertainties. In many conservation applications, the goal of demographic modeling is to assess how different scenarios of impact or management cause changes in a population. This is challenging because the uncertainty of input‐parameter values can be confounded with the effect of impacts and management actions. We developed a GSA method that separates model outcome uncertainty resulting from parameter uncertainty from that resulting from projected ecological impacts or simulated management actions, effectively separating the 2 main questions that sensitivity analysis asks. We applied this method to assess the effects of predicted sea‐level rise on Snowy Plover (Charadrius nivosus). A relatively small number of replicate models (approximately 100) resulted in consistent measures of variable importance when not trying to separate the effects of ecological impacts from parameter uncertainty. However, many more replicate models (approximately 500) were required to separate these effects. These differences are important to consider when using demographic models to estimate ecological impacts of management actions.     

The Impending Peak and Decline of Petroleum Production: an Underestimated Challenge for Conservation of Ecological Integrity

Abstract: In the last few decades petroleum has been consumed at a much faster pace than new reserves have been discovered. The point at which global oil extraction will attain a peak (“peak oil”) and begin a period of unavoidable decline is approaching. This eventuality will drive fundamental changes in the quantity and nature of energy flows through the human economic system, which probably will be accompanied by economic turmoil, political conflicts, and a high level of social tension. Besides being a geological and economic issue, peak oil is also a fundamental concern as it pertains to ecological systems and conservation because economics is a subsystem of the global ecosystem and changes in human energy‐related behaviors can lead to a broad range of effects on natural ecosystems, ranging from overuse to abandonment. As it becomes more difficult to meet energy demands, environmental considerations may be easily superseded. Given the vital importance of ecosystems and ecosystem services in a postpetroleum era, it is crucially important to wisely manage our ecosystems during the transition period to an economy based on little or no use of fossil fuels. Good policies can be formulated through awareness and understanding gained from scenario‐based assessments. Presently, most widely used global scenarios of environmental change do not incorporate resource limitation, including those of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Considering the potential magnitude of the effects of peak oil on society and nature, the development of resource‐constrained scenarios should be addressed immediately. Ecologists and conservation biologists are in an important position to analyze the situation and provide guidance, yet the topic is noticeably absent from ecological discussions. We urge politicians, corporate chief executives, thought leaders, and citizens to consider this problem seriously because it is likely to develop into one of the key environmental issues of the 21st century.     

New Institutional Mechanism in China Facilitating the Global Sustainability—Environment to Be Counted in Officials' Performance Rating

Abstract

Having argued the importance of China's sustainable development in global sustainability, the authors review the achievements of China in sustainable development, especially its institutional construction. Environment to be counted in official's political performance rating system is thought of as a new institutional mechanism in China facilitating its sustainable development and then global sustainability. Then its significance is narrated and visions in future are envisioned. In the end, certain concrete suggestions for the rating system are given in a practical way.     

Sustainable development frontiers and divides: Transnational actors and US/China greenhouse gas emissions

Perpetuation of the South-North divide over climate change threatens to undermine the sustainability of the planet's vulnerable ecosystems. The current focus of international attention is on the USA and the PRC since both countries are in a position to negate or clinch the global warming mitigation efforts of the rest of the world community and because the two governments are primarily responsible for the entrenched global impasse over greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement. This contribution illustrates how transnational non-state actors, specifically Chinese American transmigrants, can make a difference in surmounting the US-China divide over GHG emissions, even in a time of state stalemate. Specific opportunities to shape sustainable development outcomes are explored by reference to energy efficiency, renewable energy, transportation, GHG capture, and public education projects. The discussion shows that, by teaming up with the NGOs, universities, foundations and firms engaged in or contemplating involvement in GHG emission mitigation projects in China, Chinese Americans from many walks of life who can manoeuvre skilfully along the climate change frontier occupy a potentially decisive position in terms of supporting sustainable development.