THE INFLUENCE OF (x,y) UNCERTAINTY ON PREDICTION ERROR AND CONTOUR LINES FROM A THREE-DIMENSIONAL SURFACE1

ABSTRACT: In geohydrology, three-dimensional surfaces are typically represented as a series of contours. Water levels, saturated thickness, precipitation, and geological formation boundaries are a few examples of this practice. These surfaces start as point measurements that are then analyzed to interpolate between the known point measurements. This first step typically creates a raster or a set of grid points. In modeling, subsequent processing uses these to represent the shape of a surface. For display, they are usually converted to contour lines. Unfortunately, in many field applications, the (x, y) location on the earth's surface is much less confidently known than the data in the z dimension. To test the influence of (x, y) locational accuracy on z dimension point predictions and their resulting contours, a Monte Carlo study was performed on water level data from northwestern Kansas. Four levels of (x, y) uncertainty were tested ranging in accuracy from one arc degree-minute (± 2384 feet in the x dimension and ± 3036 feet in the y dimension) to Global Positioning Systems (GPS) accuracy (± 20 feet for relatively low cost systems). These span the range of common levels of locational uncertainty in data available to hydrologists in the United States. This work examines the influence that locational uncertainty can have on both point predictions and contour lines. Results indicate that overall mean error exhibits a small sensitivity to locational uncertainty. However, measures of spread and maximum errors in the z domain are greatly affected. In practical application, this implies that estimates over large regions should be asymptotically consistent. However, local errors in z can be quite large and increase with (x, y) uncertainty.     

Leveraging the power of learning to overcome negotiation deadlocks in global climate governance and low carbon transitions

ABSTRACT

Learning among actors within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations helped transferring climate policies across countries and changed negotiation positions. Together with group pressure and leadership by key governments and non-national actors, experience, knowledge and belief-based learning types altered the UNFCCC negotiation dynamics and facilitated the Paris Agreement. Governments, the UNFCCC secretariat and NGOs created opportunities for government representatives to explore policy options and learn from each other’ successes of designing and implementing low carbon policies. These experience exchanges during and beyond the UNFCCC meetings were established to help countries share their experiences with low carbon economic development plans to address climate change while decoupling economic growth. Based on elite interviews, participant observation and document analysis, this contribution examines how learning facilitated breakthroughs in international climate negotiations. It finds that structured experience exchange of and reflection on other countries’ and non-national actors’ successful policy experiences can modify national interests as policymakers increasingly understand that climate action can support economic growth. This resulted in a higher willingness to take on more ambitious climate action commitments. Sharing experiences with climate policies can facilitate other actor’s learning how they can adapt successful policies to their specific framework conditions.     

The Impact of BSE and FMD on Ethics and Democratic Process

The recent crises of BSE and FMD in the United Kingdom have revealed widespread concerns on the part of farmers and consumers about government regulations and handling of animal movements, animal welfare, and food safety. Both crises raised issues of government accountability and the lack of openness in public debate. The issues of democratic process and decision-making were especially strong in relation to the mass slaughter policy of the government to control FMD. This article explores public disquiet about these matters, as expressed through the reports of two public inquiries, and the perceived links between government decision-making and the needs of global agribusiness, to the detriment of family farms and animal welfare. In light of the growing evidence about the environmental and economic costs of agribusiness, the argument is made that strong programs of citizen action, such as the Devon Foot and Mouth Inquiry, that are grounded in an ethical stance on animal welfare can challenge the perspectives of central governments about concepts of cost, efficiency, and safety in agriculture.     

Coastal flooding, global warming and environmental management

A review of the difficulties associated with the definition of coastal flood frequencies and magnitudes leads to a recognition that there is considerable doubt in many parts of the world as to the precise nature of this particular hazard. Similarly, a review of the sea-level measurements that have been used to indicate a response to global warming shows that there is uncertainty about the amount of other controlling influences. What is clear, however, are that past management decisions about human endeavours in the coastal zone (including flood defences, occupance of flood-prone lands, extraction of ground water and natural gas) have had an impact on relative land and sea levels and have done more to increase the risk of coastal flooding than can be assigned so far to global warming. In addition, these changes induced by human activity may render inappropriate calculations of coastal-flood frequencies based on historical records since the latter relate to a period of time when the controls on flooding may have been very different.     

GLOBAL WATER ISSUES AND THE WORLD WATER COUNCIL1

ABSTRACT: The key events and the process that led to the creation of the World Water Council on World Water Day 1996 are reviewed and its characteristics summarized. The development of this new organization is discussed in the context of the major global trends in water and water-related issues, viz. growing water scarcity with its links to limits on food production and demographic patterns. In response to the need to find solutions to these pressing water issues, the development of a Technical Program based on the deliberations of the founding member organizations and a number of short-term activities have been outlined to demonstrate the evolution of the Council in this first year of its existence. Given the importance of complementarity between the Council and the Global Water Partnership, an attempt has been made to articulate the mutually-reinforcing roles of the two organizations.     

SENSITIVITY OF A PRAIRIE WETLAND TO INCREASED TEMPERATURE AND SEASONAL PRECIPITATION CHANGES1

ABSTRACT: We assessed the potential effects of increased temperature and changes in amount and seasonal timing of precipitation on the hydrology and vegetation of a semi-permanent prairie wetland in North Dakota using a spatially-defined, rule-based simulation model. Simulations were run with increased temperatures of 2°C combined with a 10 percent increase or decrease in total growing season precipitation. Changes in precipitation were applied either evenly across all months or to individual seasons (spring, summer, or fall). The response of semi-permanent wetland P1 was relatively similar under most of the seasonal scenarios. A 10 percent increase in total growing season precipitation applied to summer months only, to fall months only, and over all months produced lower water levels compared to those resulting from the current climate due to increased evapotranspiration. Wetland hydrology was most affected by changes in spring precipitation and runoff. Vegetation response was relatively consistent across scenarios. Seven of the eight seasonal scenarios produced drier conditions with no open water and greater vegetation cover compared to those resulting from the current climate. Only when spring precipitation increased did the wetland maintain an extensive open water area (49 percent). Potential changes in climate that affect spring runoff, such as changes to spring precipitation and snow melt, may have the greatest impact on prairie wetland hydrology and vegetation. In addition, relatively small changes in water level during dry years may affect the period of time the wetland contains open water. Emergent vegetation, once it is established, can survive under drier conditions due to its ability to persist in shallow water with fluctuating levels. The model's sensitivity to changes in temperature and seasonal precipitation patterns accentuates the need for accurate regional climate change projections from general circulation models.     

ASSESSING ENVIRONMENTAL ATTITUDES AND CONCERNS ABOUT A CONTAMINATED SITE IN A DENSELY POPULATED SUBURBAN ENVIRONMENT

Considerable attention has been devoted to the concerns and perceptions of people residing around contaminated facilities, both brownfields in urban areas and others located in remote and lightly populated areas. This paper examines the concerns of recreationists and sportsmen residing near the Department of Energys (DOE) Brookhaven National Laboratory, in central Long Island, one of the most densely populated regions in the United States, where tourism is of prime importance. On an open-ended question, the greatest concern was pollution, followed by environmental health as a global concern, and human health as a concern for Brookhaven. Accidents/spills, loss of public health, and loss of ecological health were rated highest among a list of concerns, and change in property values was rated lowest. When asked to rank seven concerns, protecting human health was ranked the highest, and economic interests were ranked the lowest. For future land use at Brookhaven, recreational uses were rated the highest, while building houses and factories, and storage of nuclear material were rated the lowest. These data can be used by managers, decision and policy makers, and the general public to assess and manage local and regional environmental concerns and to consider future land uses for decommissioned lands, such as those at Brookhaven.     

A MERGE Model with Endogenous Technological Progress

We have developed a new version of the MERGE model, called MERGE-ETL, to analyse the dynamics of endogenous technological learning (ETL) in the energy system. This paper describes the basic formulation of MERGE-ETL, the solving techniques used for this model and some first numerical results in the context of policies designed to mitigate global climate changes.     

global climate change: processes and products – an overview

Our knowledge of global climate change has many uncertainties.Whether global air temperature will increase, by how much, and when,are subject to debate, but there is little doubt that troposphericconcentrations of several trace gases are increasing. While possibleincreases in the average air temperature is a product of these changes,the increases in the trace gases alone will have an effect on agriculture.Increases in the ambient concentrations of carbon dioxide are expectedto have a positive net effect on crop production. In contrast, anyincreases in the penetration of surface-level ultraviolet-B (280–320 nm)radiation, and known increases in surface ozone concentrations, areconsidered to have adverse effects on certain crops. Our presentknowledge of the joint effects on crops of elevated levels of carbondioxide, ultraviolet-B radiation and ozone, and possible alterations in airtemperature and precipitation patterns, is virtually zero. Therefore, anypredictions of the effects of global climate change on agriculture aresubject to significant uncertainties. In contrast, coupling of climatechange (only temperature and precipitation) models to crop productionhas led to a number of future scenarios. In spite of theirpresent limitations, results from these efforts can be useful in planningfor future agriculture.     

2003年重大自然灾害回顾

2003年是全球自然灾害重灾年.根据收集到的全球自然灾害记录的数据,客观地对全球主要自然灾害的特征和分布特点进行了分析,并对其成因和发展趋势进行了初步探讨.