黑碳气溶胶研究现状

简单介绍了黑碳气溶胶的来源、生成机理、一般性质及危害,概括介绍了国内外相关领域的研究现状,指出黑碳气溶胶在气候变化以及大气环境等领域中具有重大的研究价值和意义.     

辽宁省大雾演变规律及对气候变暖的响应研究

利用辽宁省25个代表站1951—2005年的大雾资料,分析了辽宁省大雾雾日异常的空间分布特征、时间演变规律、雾与全球变暖及污染的关系.结果表明:受气候变暖的影响,辽宁省沿海地区大雾日数逐年递增,内陆地区大雾日数逐年递减;空气污染的减轻也是造成沈阳市雾日减少的原因之一;大雾的地域分布呈现“两高三低”的形势,沿海地区的大雾主要出现在4—7月,内陆地区的大雾主要出现在9月—次年1月;全省大雾雾日呈线性增加趋势,增加的趋势比较平稳,呈现以10年左右周期交替变化;在20世纪80年代前,沈阳大雾存在2种变化周期,分别为6～8和15年,80年代后仅存在15年的周期变化.      

Climate Change, Elevational Range Shifts, and Bird Extinctions

Abstract:  Limitations imposed on species ranges by the climatic, ecological, and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk. We modeled the effects of elevational limits on the extinction risk of landbirds, 87% of all bird species. Elevational limitation of range size explained 97% of the variation in the probability of being in a World Conservation Union category of extinction risk. Our model that combined elevational ranges, four Millennium Assessment habitat-loss scenarios, and an intermediate estimate of surface warming of 2.8° C, projected a best guess of 400–550 landbird extinctions, and that approximately 2150 additional species would be at risk of extinction by 2100. For Western Hemisphere landbirds, intermediate extinction estimates based on climate-induced changes in actual distributions ranged from 1.3% (1.1° C warming) to 30.0% (6.4° C warming) of these species. Worldwide, every degree of warming projected a nonlinear increase in bird extinctions of about 100–500 species. Only 21% of the species predicted to become extinct in our scenarios are currently considered threatened with extinction. Different habitat-loss and surface-warming scenarios predicted substantially different futures for landbird species. To improve the precision of climate-induced extinction estimates, there is an urgent need for high-resolution measurements of shifts in the elevational ranges of species. Given the accelerating influence of climate change on species distributions and conservation, using elevational limits in a tested, standardized, and robust manner can improve conservation assessments of terrestrial species and will help identify species that are most vulnerable to global climate change. Our climate-induced extinction estimates are broadly similar to those of bird species at risk from other factors, but these estimates largely involve different sets of species.     

陆地碳平衡对大气CO_2升高的响应及其机制

研究陆地碳平衡对大气CO2浓度升高的响应,能为揭示碳失汇之迷提供有力证据,为制定缓解全球变化的合理政策措施提供理论依据.综述了陆地碳平衡对全球大气CO2升高的响应及其町能的机制,由于陆地生态系统的复杂性,以及不同的研究在具体的对象、时间、地点、方法和角度的差异,目前有关陆地碳平衡对全球大气CO2升高的响应还存在很大的分歧.陆地碳库主要可分为植被碳库和土壤碳库,大气CO2浓度升高主要是通过影响光合作用、土壤养分、水分供应、光照条件、群落组成、光合产物分配等方式影响植被碳库;而土壤碳库的响应机理主要包括光合产物向土壤的输入量、脱落物质量、养分循环、光合产物分配、根系周转期、微生物活性等的响应.关于陆地碳平衡对全球大气CO2升高的响应今后应该主要集中在:(1)不同生态系统影响全球植被碳库变化的主导因子;(2)大气CO2浓度升高与其他环境因子的互作效应;(3)大气CO2浓度升高对植物光合作用的促进效应与光合作用适应性间的关系;(4)地上碳库与地下碳库间的相关性,及其对大气CO2浓度升高的分别响应;(5)克服目前实验方法存在的局限性.     

气候变暖对中国夏热冬冷地区居住建筑采暖降温年耗电量的影响

20世纪80年代中期以来的气候变暖,尤其是90年代中期以来的气候显著变暖带给社会经济发展的利与弊,一直以来受到广泛关注。气候变暖对于建筑耗能,尤其是对采暖和降温总耗能的影响很值得研究。论文以主要使用电能进行空间调节的中国夏热冬冷地区为对象,以《夏热冬冷地区居住建筑节能设计标准JCJ134-2001》中所规定的采暖、降温耗电量限值为依据,研究了气候变暖对该区居住建筑单位面积采暖年耗电量、降温年耗电量及采暖降温年耗电总量的影响。结果表明,1986年以来的气候变暖,尤其是1996年以来的气候显著变暖,理论上使夏热冬冷地区居住建筑单位面积采暖年耗电量降低;同时增加了相当一部分地区居住建筑单位面积降温年耗电量;除个别地区外,气候变暖理论上使中国夏热冬冷地区居住建筑单位面积采暖降温耗电总量普遍下降。     

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND PUBLIC PERCEPTION: THE CHALLENGE OF TRANSLATION1

ABSTRACT: Global climate change is examined from the perspective of its relevancy and urgency as a public policy issue. Interpreting from literature specific to investigations into public awareness and concern, climate change is seen as a legitimate though less than urgent issue. The literature reveals that the general public holds surprising misconceptions about the processes contributing to climate change, including failure to grasp the fundamental connection to CO₂. General ambivalence is also suggested from the results of two surveys conducted by The Groundwater Foundation. They first asked participants in a recent Groundwater Guardian Conference to rate levels of discussion and concern for water resources implications in the participants' communities. A second survey polled national water resource organizations about the extent climate change has been a focus of their educational, investigative, or advocacy efforts. The paper concludes by describing basic barriers to stimulating public response to climate change, which education about the issue should address, and by offering a model to educate and involve citizens based on the Groundwater Guardian program developed by the The Groundwater Foundation.     

Are SDGs suitable for China’s sustainable development assessment? An application and amendment of the SDGs Indicators in China

In order to further ensure that the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is to be implemented and the action measures of all countries are consistent, the United Nations has put forward a set of indicators to monitor and evaluate the progress of global sustainable development. This set of evaluation indicators is aimed for global and regional progress. An important feature of the evaluation indicators is that they are internationally comparable, but due to the large differences in the levels of sustainable development among countries, this framework of evaluation indicators has a disadvantage that it does not apply to tracking the progress of sustainable development at the national level. This paper focuses on the analysis of specific issues in the application of the global sustainable development indicators framework to meet the goals and targets of the UN and builds a system of evaluation indicators to assess the progress of sustainable development at the national level in China, and offers a perspective to assess China’s progress as well.     

2030年可持续发展议程对全球及中国环境治理的影响

《2030年可持续发展议程》已经形成了社会、经济与环境三大支柱的格局.根据进程追踪的方法,本文通过回顾环境进入《2030年可持续发展议程》目标的过程,着重分析环境目标未来15年将对全球与中国环境治理产生的重要影响.在全球环境治理层面的基本结论是:①全球环境治理体系的重要性将显著上升.②新型伙伴关系将强化环境非政府组织与市民社会的作用.③未来全球环境治理将形成以数据和指标为驱动的特点.④联合国系统内环境机构的作用将进一步强化,联合国环境署的发展受到关注.⑤环境与气候变化中的资金融资与技术转让渠道将进一步多元化.⑥气候变化问题与其他环境问题将在全球和国家层面深度融合.对中国环境治理的积极影响,体现在:①《2030年可持续发展议程》将为中国经济的转型升级和可持续发展提供新的强大动力,并形成倒逼机制;②将显著提升中国公众的环保意识;③为中国在全球治理中发挥关键性作用提供了难得的着力点;④将使中国的区域合作更加“绿色化”.当然,在新常态的经济形势下,全球可持续发展的环境目标也使得中国环境治理的压力与责任不断增加.同时,《2030年可持续发展议程》也存在一系列问题与不足之处:①目标过多且模糊不清,实现难度大.②当前所罗列的一些目标间可能包含潜在的冲突,需要进一步的研究与论证.③环境目标缺乏量化的标准.尽管如此,就环境目标而言,《2030年可持续发展议程》比千年发展目标更加综合、全面和系统,是当今国际社会应对环境问题集体努力的成果,必须高度重视与研究.     

德清县水环境压力与胁迫类型区划分

在第一次地理国情普查统计数据与调研数据的支持下,采取小流域划分与圩区划分相结合的方法,对德清县进行水环境空间评价单元划分。选用畜禽养殖污水排放量、重点企业污水排放量、农药化肥入河量、城镇与乡村生活污水排放量等5个指标,运用GIS空间分析与统计分析方法进行水污染负荷综合分析,并进行压力类型划分。尝试利用水环境功能区划及生态环境功能区划的既有成果对各空间评价单元进行水环境目标类型区划分,并将水环境目标类型与其水环境压力类型进行空间匹配分析,共划分为7种水环境胁迫类型区。此外,对各胁迫类型区的主要村域分布进行了识别。     

Prediction of global solar radiation using support vector machines

This article utilizes Support Vector Machines (SVM) for predicting global solar radiation (GSR) for Sharurha, a city in the southwest of Saudi Arabia. The SVM model was trained using measured air temperature and relative humidity. Measured data of 1812 values for the period from 1998–2002 were obtained. The measurement data of 1600 were used for training the SVM, and the remaining 212 were used for comparison between the measured and predicted values of GSR. The GSR values were predicted using the following four combinations of data sets: (i) Daily mean air temperature and day of the year as inputs, and global solar radiation as output; (ii) daily maximum air temperature and day of the year as inputs, and GSR as output; (iii) daily mean air temperature and relative humidity and day of the year as inputs, and GSR as output; and (iv) daily mean air temperature, day of the year, relative humidity, and previous day’s GSR as inputs, and GSR as output. The mean square error was found to be 0.0027, 0.0023, 0.0021, and 7.65 × 10^?4 for case (i), (ii,), (iii), and (iv) respectively, while the corresponding absolute mean percentage errors were 5.64, 5.08, 4.48, and 2.8%. Obtained results show that the SVM method is capable of predicting GSR from measured values of temperature and relative humidity.