Understanding the Lessons and Limitations of Conservation and Development

Abstract: The lack of concrete instances in which conservation and development have been successfully merged has strengthened arguments for strict exclusionist conservation policies. Research has focused more on social cooperation and conflict of different management regimes and less on how these factors actually affect the natural environments they seek to conserve. Consequently, it is still unknown which strategies yield better conservation outcomes? We conducted a meta‐analysis of 116 published case studies on common resource management regimes from Africa, south and central America, and southern and Southeast Asia. Using ranked sociodemographic, political, and ecological data, we analyzed the effect of land tenure, population size, social heterogeneity, as well as internally devised resource‐management rules and regulations (institutions) on conservation outcome. Although land tenure, population size, and social heterogeneity did not significantly affect conservation outcome, institutions were positively associated with better conservation outcomes. There was also a significant interaction effect between population size and institutions, which implies complex relationships between population size and conservation outcome. Our results suggest that communities managing a common resource can play a significant role in conservation and that institutions lead to management regimes with lower environmental impacts.     

Geographic distribution and environmental characterization of livestock production systems in Eastern Africa

The central role played by livestock in the livelihoods of rural households in the developing world is seldom fully appreciated by policy makers, development agencies and donors. Knowledge gaps in the geographic distribution and environmental determinants of farming systems, especially if viewed through the livestock lens, compound this problem. We have produced a map of pastoral, agro-pastoral and mixed farming systems across Eastern Africa, by analysing datasets collected in the framework of livelihood analysis. Input data were gathered between 2000 and 2007 by various emergency and development agencies for Djibouti, Eritrea, Kenya, Somalia, Uganda and parts of Ethiopia and Sudan. A quantitative definition of the production systems is adopted, based on the ratio of livestock- to crop-derived income. The resulting livelihood-based map of livestock production systems was compared through correspondence analysis to an alternative livestock production systems map, produced independently from environmental data. Convergence between the two mapping approaches was evident. The geographic distribution of the livestock production systems was also modelled using multivariate analysis of remotely sensed and other geospatial datasets. Models show high statistical accuracy, and were thus used to fill the gaps in the observed distribution of livestock production systems. Finally, selected environmental factors underpinning the systems (agro-climatology, human and livestock populations and land cover) were analysed in detail, enabling the livestock production systems to be characterized in terms of them. The regional scope of the map, as well as its direct link with a vast amount of livelihood information, render it a valuable tool for a range of development and research applications, including those related to global change.     

贫困地区非物质文化遗产产业化博弈分析

非物质文化遗产是贫困地区重要的文化资源,将文化资源转化为文化生产力,实现文化扶贫是贫困地区在现代社会背景下的重要抉择.作为参与非物质文化遗产产业化的三个主要利益相关者(当地政府、企业和非物质文化遗产保有者),他们之间的利益博弈结果表明,非物质文化遗产产业化对三个参与方都是有利的战略选择.只有合理分配三者的角色,贫困地区非物质文化遗产的产业化才能促进当地经济发展的需要,实现文化脱贫,而且还有利于非物质文化遗产的保护与传承.     

核电厂核事故应急疏散研究

根据我国法规、标准与美国核管委对核电厂核事故应急疏散的要求,考虑我国核电厂特殊的厂址条件与社会环境,分析核事故应急疏散的可行性。通过应急疏散行为研究、厂区的交通需求估计和路网分析,对不同情境,考虑核事故应急疏散的特殊问题,分别采用人工容量分析与宏观仿真模拟得到应急疏散时间。针对某核电厂,给出核事故应急疏散分析的一般步骤、方法与计算结果。对宏观仿真模型的主要参数进行灵敏度分析,找出影响应急疏散时间的主要因素,提出缩短应急疏散时间的针对性措施。     

Paradigms for parasite conservation

Parasitic species, which depend directly on host species for their survival, represent a major regulatory force in ecosystems and a significant component of Earth's biodiversity. Yet the negative impacts of parasites observed at the host level have motivated a conservation paradigm of eradication, moving us farther from attainment of taxonomically unbiased conservation goals. Despite a growing body of literature highlighting the importance of parasite‐inclusive conservation, most parasite species remain understudied, underfunded, and underappreciated. We argue the protection of parasitic biodiversity requires a paradigm shift in the perception and valuation of their role as consumer species, similar to that of apex predators in the mid‐20th century. Beyond recognizing parasites as vital trophic regulators, existing tools available to conservation practitioners should explicitly account for the unique threats facing dependent species. We built upon concepts from epidemiology and economics (e.g., host‐density threshold and cost‐benefit analysis) to devise novel metrics of margin of error and minimum investment for parasite conservation. We define margin of error as the risk of accidental host extinction from misestimating equilibrium population sizes and predicted oscillations, while minimum investment represents the cost associated with conserving the additional hosts required to maintain viable parasite populations. This framework will aid in the identification of readily conserved parasites that present minimal health risks. To establish parasite conservation, we propose an extension of population viability analysis for host–parasite assemblages to assess extinction risk. In the direst cases, ex situ breeding programs for parasites should be evaluated to maximize success without undermining host protection. Though parasitic species pose a considerable conservation challenge, adaptations to conservation tools will help protect parasite biodiversity in the face of an uncertain environmental future.     

GIS网络服务区分析在重庆市主城区夜间施工噪声投诉处置中应用

通过对重庆市主城区夜间施工噪声投诉处置现状分析,以主城区道路交通网络、环境监察机构分布等数据专题建模,采用G IS的网络服务区功能的分析结果,提出车辆调度合理化建议方案,为环境监察部门的夜间施工噪声投诉处置车辆部署调度提供辅助技术支持。     

旅游手册的营销效果研究

运用符号学和内容分析法,以旅游手册为媒介,针对昆明部分高校大学生进行了问卷调查,探讨了影响旅游手册营销效果的关键要素,并初步构建了旅游手册营销效果评价指标体系.     

太阳活动与四川盆地气候资源波动

本文应用四川省气象局提供的气候资料,借助于电子计算机,统计分析了太阳黑子位相与四川盆地热量资源、降水资源波动的关系;采用文献[2]的公式,计算了太阳黑子相对数年均值与热量、降水资源的同期及延后相关系数,并进行了周期分析,进而分析其演变趋势及其对农业生产的影响和应采取的对策。     

The gloomy greenhouse: Should the world phase out fossil fuels?

In 1988 the Toronto World Conference on the Changing Atmosphere called for a reduction of CO₂ emissions of the industrialized countries by approximately 20% by the year 2005 as compared with 1988. A stabilization of CO₂ concentrations would require an eventual emissions reduction of more than 50% of present levels. Model runs were performed with the Dutch Integrated Model for the Assessment of the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) to put these figures into perspective. It was found that the suggested emissions reduction levels could indeed be adequate to prevent global temperature change from moving beyond past climate experience. However, this would only be the case when these reduced levels of emissions were achieved at a global scale and maximum emission control for the other greenhouse gases was implemented. A delayed response analysis shows that the policies of the coming decades are crucial for the eventual control of the greenhouse effect.