The gloomy greenhouse: Should the world phase out fossil fuels?

In 1988 the Toronto World Conference on the Changing Atmosphere called for a reduction of CO₂ emissions of the industrialized countries by approximately 20% by the year 2005 as compared with 1988. A stabilization of CO₂ concentrations would require an eventual emissions reduction of more than 50% of present levels. Model runs were performed with the Dutch Integrated Model for the Assessment of the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) to put these figures into perspective. It was found that the suggested emissions reduction levels could indeed be adequate to prevent global temperature change from moving beyond past climate experience. However, this would only be the case when these reduced levels of emissions were achieved at a global scale and maximum emission control for the other greenhouse gases was implemented. A delayed response analysis shows that the policies of the coming decades are crucial for the eventual control of the greenhouse effect.     

Assessing ecological risk on a regional scale

Society needs a quantitative and systematic way to estimate and compare the impacts of environmental problems that affect large geographic areas. This paper presents an approach for regional risk assessment that combines regional assessment methods and landscape ecology theory with an existing framework for ecological risk assessment. Risk assessment evaluates the effects of an environmental change on a valued natural resource and interprets the significance of those effects in light of the uncertainties identified in each component of the assessment process. Unique and important issues for regional risk assessment are emphasized; these include the definition of the disturbance scenario, the assessment boundary definition, and the spatial heterogeneity of the landscape. Although the research described in this article has been funded wholly or in part by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) through Interagency Agreement Number DW89932112-01-2 to the U.S. Department of Energy, it has not been subjected to EPA review and therefore does not necessarily reflect the views of EPA and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

Local authority technology policies

This paper is concerned with the failure of published research to provide a framework within which local technology policy could be analysed and evaluated. It firstly describes a simple model of the technological development process. Then, using this model as a base, develops a framework for analysing the main aspects of technological policies. The paper considers the main results of a recent survey of local authority technology development policies and initiatives before providing some overall conclusions relating to the nature, direction and likely effectiveness of such policies.     

HYDROLOGIC AND HYDRAULIC RESEARCH IN MOUNTAIN RWERS1

ABSTRACT: Although our current (1990) knowledge of hydrologic and hydraulic processes is based on many years of study, there are river environments where these processes are complex and poorly understood. One of these environments is in mountainous areas, which cover about 25 percent of the United States. Use of conventional hydrologic and hydraulic techniques in mountain-river environments may produce erroneous results and interpretations in a wide spectrum of water-resources investigations. An ongoing U.S. Geological Survey research project is being conducted to improve the understanding of hydrologic and hydraulic processes of mountainous areas and to improve the results of subsequent hydrologic investigations. Future hydrologic and hydraulic research needs in mountainous areas are identified.     

Fault-dynamic modelling of a phthalic anhydride reactor

A new methodology, fault-dynamic modelling, has been developed for analysis of potentially hazardous situations in the process industries. Traditional fault-tree analysis is used to determine the combinations of component failure that can lead to a particular process upset condition. Realistic dynamic modelling is then used to calculate the time available for corrective action once the upset has started. The method is applied to a phthalic anhydride reactor. The results of the analysis identify three process upsets that can lead to catastrophic failure in 2–5 min if left uncorrected. Other process upsets lead to safe conditions.     

Group utility indifference and resource management decision making

Natural resource managers often rely on the advice of specialists to aid decision making. However, disagreement among these specialists about the relative value of particular management objectives or the risks associated with implementing certain management strategies may complicate the decision effort. Multiattribute utility analysis can facilitate decision making by indicating how attributes of a problem are weighed by individual specialists. This information can then be used to outline bands of potential problem solutions that are acceptable to the advising group and may allow management to further its own objectives (possibly increased efficiency).An example is presented that relates to fire management planning efforts on national forests. Multiattribute utility functions developed from a survey of fire management professionals are used to identify utility-maximizing fire management strategies based on each strategy's level of economic efficiency and risk. Bands of utility-indifferent potential solutions are outlined based on measures of group consensus. It is pointed out that a subset of these would further management's goal (increased efficiency) without significantly altering the value assigned to the risk attribute by the specialists. Finally, the robustness of the technique is discussed with particular reference to environmental management problems and the role that proxy information often plays in decision making.     

Integrated assessment: Missing link in the acid rain debate?

The United States is finding it difficult to develop a coherent policy on acid rain. Despite more than a decade of scientific research and policy initiatives, no clear course of action has been identified. This article argues that what is missing is an integrated assessment of the scientific knowledge that will guide the political process. The role of the integrated assessment is described, and a conceptual framework presented that would accomplish the desired goal. Currently available acid rain assessment models are compared against this framework and found to be less than satisfactory. The article concludes by stressing the opportunity now available to the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program to perform such an assessment and break the logjam.     

Differences among model simulations of climate change on the scale of resource regions

The climate simulations from atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) are often used to analyze the potential effects of climate change on environmental resources. It has been demonstrated that there are differences among the simulations from various GCMs, on spatial scales ranging from global to regional. This paper quantifies the differences in temperature and precipitation simulated by three major GCMs for four specific regions: an agricultural region (the North American winter wheat belt), a hydrologic region (the Great Basin), a demographic region (the high-density population corridor of the northeast United States), and a political region (the state of Texas). Both the current (control) climate and the climatic response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) are consideredIn each region, even when the data are averaged on a seasonal basis, marked differences occurred in the areal average climate simulated by the different GCMs for both the control climate and the doubled-CO₂ climate. Thus, climate impact studies based on the simulations of more than one GCM could easily yield a range of possible results     

INSTANTANEOUS PEAK FLOW ESTIMATION PROCEDURES FOR NEWFOUNDLAND STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: A procedure of estimating instantaneous flood flows for various return periods on the Island of Newfoundland is presented. The procedure is based on annual maximum instantaneous flows rather than annual maximum daily-mean flows, as the latter requires the conversion of estimated daily-mean flows into instantaneous flows. Regression equations were developed for each of three homogeneous regions for the desired return periods. The flood flow estimation capability of the presented procedure is demonstrated to be better than any other currently available procedure on the Island.     

A NEW LOOK AT FLOOD RISK DETERMINATION1

ABSTRACT: The probability distributions of annual peak flows used in flood risk analysis quantify the risk that a design flood will be exceeded. But the parameters of these distributions are themselves to a degree uncertain and this uncertainty increases the risk that the flood protection provided will in fact prove to be inadequate. The increase in flood risk due to parameter uncertainty is small when a fairly long record of data is available and the annual flood peaks are serially independent, which is the standard assumption in flood frequency analysis. But standard tests for serial independence are insensitive to the type of grouping of high and low values in a time series, which is measured by the Hurst coefficient. This grouping increases the parameter uncertainty considerably. A study of 49 annual peak flow series for Canadian rivers shows that many have a high Hurst coefficient. The corresponding increase in flood risk due to parameter uncertainty is shown to be substantial even for rivers with a long record, and therefore should not be neglected. The paper presents a method of rationally combining parameter uncertainty due to serial correlation, and the stochastic variability of peak flows in a single risk assessment. In addition, a relatively simple time series model that is capable of reproducing the observed serial correlation of flood peaks is presented.