风险规避、非牧用途使用与牧户草原流转行为

基于新疆12个牧业县232户微观数据,运用风险收益理论、期望效应理论构建了草原流转风险规避理论模型与基于博弈论构建了草原流转非牧用途使用理论模型,分析了风险规避和非牧用途使用对牧户草原流转的内在机理。使用二元Logit模型、中介效应与调节效应分别探析风险规避和非牧用途使用对牧户流转行为的影响。研究表明：违约风险、生态风险、经营风险对牧户草原流转行为存在显著影响,草原流转存在的各类风险可能导致牧户的风险规避行为;非牧用途使用、转移就业能力担忧与家庭收入结构对于牧户草原流转行为存在显著影响;家庭收入结构在牧户面临非牧用途使用时存在调节效应,而其转移就业能力担忧在牧户面临非牧用途使用时存在遮蔽效应。同时,违约风险、生态风险在牧户面临非牧用途使用时存在中介效应。在此基础上,进一步讨论了造成流转风险、非牧用途使用问题的成因与对策。     

青藏高原农牧业生态风险时空变化特征与分区防控

青藏高原地区是我国重要的生态安全屏障、战略资源储备基地,农牧业是青藏高原涵盖范围最广的产业,明晰其生态风险对实现青藏高原农牧业可持续发展具有重要意义。构建了青藏高原农牧业生态风险评价体系,并以216个县域为评价单元,分析1990—2015年农牧业开发综合生态风险的时空分布及其重心转移规律,并结合区域农牧业开发强度实现农牧业生态风险权衡分区。结果表明：（1）青藏高原综合生态风险总体有上升趋势,呈“东部多核聚集、西部零星散列”的分布格局。（2）风险重心向西北方向移动,风险主趋势方向转为西北—东南走向。（3）青藏高原限制开发区面积占比最大为50.84%,其次为发展预警区与自然恢复区,青藏高原整体农牧业开发强度较高,应在保障高原生态安全屏障功能的情况下减缓农牧业开发。针对区域特征提出农牧业发展方案,以期为青藏高原地区农牧业开发生态风险防范及发展规划提供科学指引。     

涝洼农区畜牧业生产现状与发展对策—以监利县为例

分析了监测县涝洼农区发展节粮型畜牧业的有利条件和存在的问题，提出了充分利用本地自然资源，发展节粮型畜牧业的对策。     

Tenax萃取技术用于养殖底泥中有机氯农药的生物有效性研究

本研究以经济底栖生物菲律宾蛤仔和河蚬为受试生物,分别对不同浓度梯度的海洋和淡水底泥中9种代表性有机氯农药(OCPs)进行累积实验;同时采用Tenax连续萃取法研究2类底泥中OCPs的脱附动力学,提供简单、快速评价养殖底泥中OCPs生物有效性的方法,并将Tenax萃取结果与2种底栖生物的累积结果进行比较。结果表明,菲律宾蛤仔和河蚬对OCPs的生物-底泥富集因子(BSAF)分别为0.31~1.89和0.12~2.12,且底泥中有机碳标化的OCPs浓度与生物体内脂肪标化的OCPs浓度之间的相关性较差。Tenax脱附动力学的结果表明,2类底泥中OCPs的快速脱附比例(F_(rap))均在50%左右,其快速、慢速和极慢速脱附速率常数数量级分别为10~(~(-1))、10~(-2)和10~(-4)。Tenax快速脱附组分与2种底栖生物累积结果之间具有良好的相关性(r~2=0.75,P0.0001),表明Tenax萃取技术可以预测OCPs在底栖生物体内的累积量,并且该方法克服了大型底栖生物累积实验结果重复性较差等缺点。另外通过与基于热力学平衡的方法对比发现,Tenax萃取技术更适用于滤食性或可消化底泥的底栖生物对底泥污染物的富集;同时Tenax 6 h和24 h单点萃取技术可以作为简单快速评价底泥疏水性有机污染物(HOCs)生物有效性的替代方法,进一步为养殖领域的底泥污染状况以及相关水产品的质量安全和食用风险提供生物有效性评价依据。     

Molecular modeling in environmental science∗

Quantum mechanic computer models are often used in chemistry to predict properties of molecules and to simulate reaction pathways. Such models calculate bond lengths, bond angles, dihedral angles, the energy of the molecular‐orbitals (MO's), the dipole moment, the ionisation potential, and the heat of formation. These results lead to detailed information on electronic structures like bond orders, electronic charges and levels of frontier orbitals (HOMO, LUMO).

It is possible to calculate properties of ground state molecules as well as ionic and radicalic structures, or reaction intermediates and other compounds with very short lifetimes.

From the exact knowledge of electronic structure, frontier orbitals, and reaction intermediates it is possible to predict stability of chemicals in the environment but also of fictive chemicals, which are not yet synthesized. Some authors have shown that there are correlations between electronic structure and toxicity.

The most interesting models for environmental chemistry are semiempirical models, such as MINDO, MNDO or MOPAC. Theses programs are able to handle molecules with 30 and more heavy atoms (all elements without hydrogen), and it is possible to install them on main frame computers (CPU‐time several minutes to hours) and on personal computers, with coprocessors (CPU‐time several hours to a few days).

Normally the molecule is read in from a Z‐matrix (a matrix of polar coordinates of atoms connected in the molecule) and with symmetry data. Furthermore, programs are available which create a Z‐matrix from the molecular structure plotted on the screen with a mouse.     

藏北草地地上生物量及遥感监测模型研究

草地退化已成为藏北地区面临的主要生态环境问题。为了定量监测草地生物量和退化草地的生物量动态变化,利用2004 年8—9 月藏北地区草地地上生物量最大时期的地面实测数据,分析了其地上生物量大小和空间分布特征,在此基础上,结合同期的Terra MODIS植被指数数据,建立了草地地上生物量的遥感监测和估算模型。主要结论如下:①由于受高寒气候、土壤、水分等环境因素的限制,8—9 月藏北地区平均草地地上生物量较小,为96.88g/m²,其中绿色鲜草的比重在80%以上;不同区域不同草地类型地上生物量差异很大,范围在37.10~589.12 g/m²,平均而言,高寒沼泽化草甸的地上生物量最大,达356.84 g/m²,其次是温性草原(64.48 g/m²)和高寒草甸(61.61 g/m²),高寒草原草地最低,为48.87 g/m²;②基于MODIS NDVI的合成、生长型、指数函数、逻辑斯谛等4 个模型是估算藏北草地地上生物量的最优模型;③生物量的空间分布呈东南向西北减少态势,东南部部分地段在100 g/m²以上,西北部则在20 g/m²以下。     

国际标准产业分类体系的农、林、牧、渔业分类演化及启示

国际标准产业分类体系是目前国际上最有影响和权威的产业分类体系。深入了解国际标准产业分类体系中农、林、牧、渔业分类演化,对正确收集、处理和测算我国农、林、牧、渔业的指标以及国际间数据比较至关重要。论文首先详细地剖析国际标准产业分类体系的农、林、牧、渔业的分类演化,然后依据国际标准产业分类体系的最新变化,结合我国农、林、牧、渔业现状,为我国国民经济行业分类中农、林、牧、渔业的修改和调整提供建议。     

Pulmonary inflammation induced by office dust and the relation to 1 → 3-β-glucan using different extraction techniques

It is observed that 1?→?3-β-glucan, a major cell wall component of fungi, induces pulmonary inflammation. There is inconsistency in determining the correlation between the levels of glucan measured by current extraction methods and the respiratory inflammation observed in individuals or lab animals exposed to environmental dust samples. The glucan-specific limulus amebocyte lysate (G-LAL) method was used after extraction with dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) or sodium hydroxide (NaOH) to analyze the glucan content of office dust samples collected from a water-damaged building. C3HeB/FeJ mice, an endotoxin-sensitive strain, were treated with different dust samples (2.5?mg?kg^?1 body weight) or saline (vehicle control) by pharyngeal aspiration. At 1?day after aspiration, bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) was performed, and lung inflammation and injury were assessed by measuring: (1) neutrophil (PMN) infiltration, (2) inflammatory cytokine (IL-6, IL-10, MCP-1, IFN-γ, TNF-α, and IL12-p70) levels, and (3) albumin and lactate dehydrogenase in recovered BAL fluid. Both DMSO and NaOH extraction increased the detection of glucan by approximately 20-fold compared to water extraction. However, only the DMSO extraction method showed a statistically significant positive correlation between 1?→?3-β-glucan and albumin levels, total numbers of BAL, polymorphonuclear leukocytes (PMNs) cells recovered, levels of TNF-α, MCP-1, and IL-6. In conclusion, 1?→?3-β-glucan is a potent inflammatory agent in dust samples and DMSO extraction for glucan analysis may prove useful in understanding the impact of environmental contamination by glucans on lung disease.     

Hazardous metals in animal manure and their changes from 1990 to 2010 in China

Contents and changes of some hazardous elements in 388 animal feed and manure samples collected in 2009–2010 from 194 animal farms in 10 provinces of China were determined. The concentrations of Cu, Zn, Cr, and Pb in animal manures were in the ranges of 10–1800, 50–6300, 0.1–340, and 1.0–310 mg kg^?1, with median concentrations of 200, 500, 15, and 11 mg kg^?1, respectively. As, Cd, and Hg were in ranges from undetectable to 280, undetectable to 10, and 0.01–2.5 mg kg^?1, respectively. The concentrations of Cu, Zn, and As were highest in the manure from pig, followed by the manure from poultry and dairy cows. From 1990 to 2010, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, and Cr contents in manure increased strongly, especially in pig and poultry manure. Most of the increases occurred before 2003 and then stabilized or decreased which reflects the extensive use of feed additives before 2003 and the gradual stabilization since then.     

Radioactive Isotopes of Strontium,Caesium and Plutonium in Sediments of the Northern Adriatic Sea

Changes in nitrification rates of an acid grassland soil with and without air drying have been monitored over 9 days, after first flushing native nitrate from the soils with deionised water. The results confirmed that full re-establishment of nitrification after air drying takes several days, supporting the hypothesis that any immediate first flush of nitrate from air-dried soils originates from cell lysis or flushing of ‘stored’ nitrate. Ammonium spiking confirmed that nitrification was not ammonium substrate limited. It was also found that ammonium accumulates in the soil during the drying process, providing a substrate pool once the population of nitrifiers has re-established. Over the first week of incubation, nitrate immobilisation was less conspicuous in the soil that had been rewetted after air drying compared with the incubated field moist soil.