合同能源管理在火电企业应用策略分析

合同能源管理是一种基于市场运作的全新的节能机制,其能弥补能源用户节能技术改造资金的不足、转移节能项目实施的风险等,具备推广的条件。主要从火电企业经营压力日益增大引出话题,研究了火电企业常规的节能改造技术,并分析出节能改造特点,提出将合同能源管理模式应用到火电企业技术改造中去,并结合火电企业投产年限对合同能源管理模式的影响,构建出合同能源管理在火电企业应用中的投资模型,对火电企业节能投资有一定的指导作用。     

我国流域横向生态补偿机制的制度经济学分析

本文结合近期案例,分析我国的流域横向生态补偿试点在科斯范式基础上结合中国国情进行的制度创新。当上下游的博弈难以同时满足参与约束和激励相容约束时,合约中引入了纵向补偿来填平双方的"价格"鸿沟,形成了"纵横"交织的嵌套式合约;以奖罚并举的双向补偿来化解上下游的"产权"争议;借助中央政府的支持和地方政府的环保"锦标赛"机制克服了科斯定理对交易成本过度敏感的难题。最后,本文针对横向生态补偿试点中存在的问题提出了若干政策建议。     

The evolving local social contract for managing climate and disaster risk in Vietnam

How do disasters shape local government legitimacy in relation to managing climate‐ and disaster‐related risks? This paper looks at how local authorities in Central Vietnam perceive their social contract for risk reduction, including the partial merging of responsibilities for disaster risk management with new plans for and investments in climate change adaptation and broader socioeconomic development. The findings indicate that extreme floods and storms constitute critical junctures that stimulate genuine institutional change. Local officials are proud of their strengthened role in disaster response and they are eager to boost investment in infrastructure. They have struggled to reinforce their legitimacy among their constituents, but given the shifting roles of the state, private sector, and civil society, and the undiminished emphasis on high‐risk development models, their responsibilities for responding to emerging climate change scenarios are increasingly nebulous. The past basis for legitimacy is no longer valid, but tomorrow's social contract is not yet defined.     

代表性浓度路径情景下宁夏草地动态演变的预测与模拟

西部地区是我国乃至亚洲的重要生态屏障.因此,遏制由于长期过牧导致的草地退化,保障西部地区生态系统功能,促进西部地区畜牧业和经济社会可持续发展具有重要的研究意义.本研究以宁夏回族自治区作为典型区,收集了宁夏土地利用数据、自然环境数据和社会经济数据,创建了联立方程组模型,研究了自然环境条件和社会经济因素对草地过牧与退牧过程的驱动机制.驱动分析结果显示对于草地过牧过程,气候因素是草地面积退化的重要影响因素,人口压力也在这一过程中起着决定性作用,交通条件较发达的地区,人类活动较频繁,对于草地生态系统破坏也相对较严重;而宁夏退牧过程的主要驱动因素之一是区域原有生态环境,经济要素也是决定退牧意愿的重要影响因素,国家政策是退牧过程的外在推动因素.基于宁夏土地利用规划和1PCC公布的RCPs情景数据,设计估算了规划情景和气候情景下的土地利用需求,然后基于草地动态演变的驱动机理,本文应用土地系统动态(DLS)模拟系统预测了2010-2030年在RCPs情景和规划情景下研究区域草地面积和草地质量的空间分布特征和变化趋势.研究结果表明,规划情景下,研究区域草地面积随时间呈逐渐减少的态势,AIM气候模式下草地面积的变化态势与规划情景相似,但是减少的幅度比规划情景小,而MESSAGE气候模式情景下草地面积变化呈先减少后有小幅增加的态势.三种情景下,草地面积减少的区域主要集中在低密度草区,部分是在中密度草区.总的来看,无论是哪种情景,未来2010-2030年过牧与退牧这种相逆的现象不断减弱,但是并没有消失.这些研究结论将为西部干旱区生态环境保护、草地资源开发利用与保护、畜牧业发展规划提供重要的决策参考信息.     

Optimizing conservation in species-specific agricultural landscapes

Recovery of grassland birds in agricultural landscapes is a global imperative. Agricultural landscapes are complex, and the value of resource patches may vary substantially among species. The spatial extent at which landscape features affect populations (i.e., scale of effect) may also differ among species. There is a need for regional-scale conservation planning that considers landscape-scale and species-specific responses of grassland birds to environmental change. We developed a spatially explicit approach to optimizing grassland conservation in the context of species-specific landscapes and prioritization of species recovery and applied it to a conservation program in Kentucky (USA). We used a hierarchical distance-sampling model with an embedded scale of effect predictor to estimate the relationship between landscape structure and abundance of eastern meadowlarks (Sturnella magna), field sparrows (Spizella pusilla), and northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus). We used a novel spatially explicit optimization procedure rooted in multi-attribute utility theory to design alternative conservation strategies (e.g., prioritize only northern bobwhite recovery or assign equal weight to each species’ recovery). Eastern meadowlarks and field sparrows were more likely to respond to landscape-scale resource patch adjacencies than landscape-scale patch densities. Northern bobwhite responded to both landscape-scale resource patch adjacencies and densities and responded strongly to increased grassland density. Effects of landscape features on local abundance decreased as distance increased and had negligible influence at 0.8 km for eastern meadowlarks (0.7–1.2 km 95% Bayesian credibility intervals [BCI]), 2.5 km for field sparrows (1.5–5.8 km 95% BCI), and 8.4 km for bobwhite (6.4–26 km 95% BCI). Northern bobwhites were predicted to benefit greatly from future grassland conservation regardless of conservation priorities, but eastern meadowlark and field sparrow were not. Our results suggest similar species can respond differently to broad-scale conservation practices because of species-specific, distance-dependent relationships with landscape structure. Our framework is quantitative, conceptually simple, customizable, and predictive and can be used to optimize conservation in heterogeneous ecosystems while considering landscape-scale processes and explicit prioritization of species recovery.     

我国草地资源生产潜力分析及其可持续利用对策

本文分析了我国草地资源生产力的现状及区域分布特征 ,初步建立了草地资源生产潜力预测分析的方法 ,估算了各农业生态区草地资源的生产潜力 ,在此基础上提出了我国草地综合生产能力可持续发展的基本对策     

对承包工程队安全管理探讨

介绍了林业木材生产中用工形式的变化及推行具有法人资质单位承包经营的新路子，阐述了这种承包方式中存在的问题，探讨了这种承包方式中安全管理的途径。     

Rodent Communities in an Exurbanizing Southwestern Landscape (U.S.A.)

Abstract:  Ranches are being converted to exurban housing developments in the southwestern United States, with potentially significant but little-studied impacts on biological diversity. We captured rodents on 48 traplines in grasslands, mesquite savannas, and oak savannas in southeastern Arizona that were grazed by livestock, embedded in exurban housing developments, grazed and embedded in development, or neither grazed nor embedded in development. Independent of habitat or development, rodent species richness, mean rank abundance, and capture rates of all rodents combined were negatively related to presence of livestock grazing or to its effects on vegetative ground cover. Exurban development had no obvious effects on rodent variety or abundance. Results suggest southwestern exurban developments can sustain a rich assemblage of grassland and savanna rodents if housing densities are low and houses are embedded in a matrix of natural vegetation with little grazing.     

1982—2009年青藏高原草地覆盖度时空变化特征

利用GIMMS和SPOTVGT两种归一化植被指数(NDVI)数据对青藏高原地区1982—2009年期间草地覆盖的时空变化进行研究,结果如下:①青藏高原草地植被覆盖的年际变化存在着显著的空间差异。趋于升高的区域主要分布在西藏的北部和新疆的南部;趋于下降的地区主要分布在青海的柴达木盆地、祁连山、共和盆地、江河源地区及川西地区。②青藏高原草地覆盖度年际变化趋势分析表明,在90%的显著性检验水平上,降低和增加面积的比率为0.31,草地植被覆盖水平总体趋于升高态势。③以10 a为步长的分析表明:草地盖度呈现持续增加的区域主要分布在西藏北部;阿里地区草地盖度表现为先减少后增加;雅鲁藏布江流域草地盖度呈现先增加而后减少;而持续减少的区域主要分布在青海省以及川西地区,其中青海省分布最广;统计结果显示,高原大部分地区草地盖度具有升高的态势。     

Phosphorus and nitrogen in soil, plants, and overland flow from sheep-grazed pastures fertilized with different rates of superphosphate

Eutrophication of waterways through delivery of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) from farmland is a problem in many countries. Loss of nutrients from grazed grassland via overland flow is well demonstrated, but the sources of these nutrients and the processes controlling their mobilization into water are not well understood. Much of the nutrient loss in overland flow from grazed pastures may be due to generally increased fertility of the soil–plant system (i.e. background or ‘systematic’ nutrient loss) rather than to immediate loss after fertilizer application [Nash, D., Clemow, L., Hannah, M., Barlow, K., Gangaiya, P., 2005. Modelling phosphorus exports from rain-fed and irrigated pastures in southern Australia. Aust. J. Soil Res. 43, 745–755]. The main aim of this study was to measure the effects of long-term (25 years) superphosphate (Ca(H₂PO₄)₂ + 2CaSO₄) fertilizer application (0–23 kg/(ha year)) on P and N in soil, plants, and potential background P and N movement in overland flow (generated using a rainfall simulator) from sheep-grazed pastures in southern Australia. Measurements were taken in autumn, under dry soil conditions, and in winter, under wet soil conditions, 12 and 15 months after the last fertilizer applications, respectively. Superphosphate application caused a strong increase in plant P, soil total P, Olsen P, and Colwell P; and a weaker increase in plant N, soil total N, and inorganic N (ammonium and nitrate). Soil P and N were concentrated in the surface 25 mm of soil. Soil water-extractable P, calcium chloride-extractable P, and calcium chloride organic P were in general only poorly associated with fertilizer application. The concentration of P and, to a lesser extent, the concentration of N in overland flow increased with increasing fertilizer application and showed strong seasonal differences (0.06–0.77 mg P/L and 0.6–5.5 mg N/L in autumn; 0.04–0.20 mg P/L and 0.4–1.7 mg N/L in winter). The P in overland flow was predominantly dissolved reactive P in autumn and particulate P in winter. The N in overland flow contained significant proportions of dissolved organic N, dissolved inorganic N (ammonium and nitrate), and particulate N. The concentrations of P and N in overland flow usually exceeded State water quality targets (<0.04 mg P/L and <0.90 mg N/L), suggesting that background losses of nutrients from these pasture systems could contribute to the eutrophication of waterways.