1976-2005年唐山地区降水变化规律及干旱预测

利用唐山市1976-2005年各县年降水序列,分析了该市降水的空间分布规律和时间变化特点。采用灰色系统的灾变预测方法,对各县分别建立了GM（1,1）模型,进行未来25年唐山市各站的干旱年预测。利用残差检验、后验差检验和关联度检验对各模型分别进行了精度检验。结果表明,预测模型精度较高,可以对唐山市各县未来的干旱年进行预测,从而为科学决策提供依据。     

Optimal Selection of Priority Development Areas Considering Tradeoffs Between Hydrology and Development Configuration

Mixed-integer linear programs are proposed for siting development and conservation areas in watersheds, addressing economic objectives (development perimeter and proximity) and ecological objectives. Links between watershed hydrology and ecology need not be well defined. Parameters for the linear programs are obtained from linearization of the SWAT hydrologic model.     

Modeling Acidification Recovery on Threatened Ecosystems: Application to the Evaluation of the Gothenburg Protocol in France

To evaluate the acid deposition reduction negotiated for 2010 within the UNECE LRTAP Gothenburg Protocol, sulphur and nitrogen deposition time-series (1880–2100) were compared to critical loads of acidity on five French ecosystems: Massif Central basalt (site 1) and granite (2); Paris Bassin tertiary sands (3); Vosges mountains sandstone (4) and Landes eolian sands (5). The SAFE model was used to estimate the response of soil solution pH and ratio to the deposition scenario. Among the five sites, critical loads were exceeded in the past at sites 3, 4 and 5. Sites 3 and 4 were still expected to exceed in 2010, the Protocol year. Further reduction of atmospheric deposition, mainly nitrogen, would be needed to achieve recovery on these ecosystems. At sites 3, 4 and 5, the delay between the critical load exceedance and the violation of the critical chemical criterion was estimated to be 10 to 30 years in the top soil and 50 to 90 years in the deeper soil. At site 5, a recovery was expected in the top soil in 2010 with a time lag of 10 years. Unexpectedly, soil pH continued to decrease after 1980 in the deeper soil at sites 2 and 5. This time lag indicated that acidification moved down the soil profile as a consequence of slow base cation depletion by ion exchange. This delayed response of the soil solution was the result of the combination of weathering rates and vegetation uptake but also of the relative ratio between base cation deposition and acid compounds.     

Modified Fenton reaction for trichlorophenol dechlorination by enzymatically generated H2O2 and gluconic acid chelate

Glucose oxidase is a well-known enzyme that catalyzes the oxidation of β-d-glucose to produce gluconic acid and hydrogen peroxide. Fenton reaction is a powerful oxidation technology used for the oxidation of groundwater pollutants. For the application of Fenton reaction in groundwater remediation, successful operation of Fenton reaction near neutral pH, and on-site generation of both H₂O₂ and chelate will be beneficial. The focus of this experimental study was to couple the glucose oxidation reaction with chelate-based Fenton reaction. The idea was to use the hydrogen peroxide and chelate gluconic acid generated during glucose oxidation for the dechlorination of 2,4,6-trichlorophenol (TCP) by Fenton reaction. The oxidation of glucose was achieved using the enzyme in free and immobilized forms. The rate of production of hydrogen peroxide was determined for each system, and was used to estimate the time required for complete consumption of glucose during the process, thus avoiding any traces of glucose in the Fenton reaction. In the case of free enzyme reaction, separation of the enzyme was achieved using an ultrafiltration membrane before initiating the Fenton reaction. The oxidation of TCP by Fenton reaction was performed at varying ratios of gluconic acid/Fe, and its effect on the decomposition of TCP and H₂O₂ was studied. TCP degradation was studied both in terms of parent compound degradation and free chloride generation.     

基于集对分析的尾矿库安全评价研究

为更好地对尾矿库的安全状况进行综合评价,针对尾矿库的特点建立了指标体系,并采用层次分析法确定各指标权重.将集对分析理论用于尾矿库的安全评价,并通过实例证明该理论适合于尾矿库的安全评价.集对分析中差异度I取1和-1.研究表明,当I=1时,指标体系中所有处于"一般安全"状态的指标项经过整改后能处于"安全"状态,此时联系度μ=0.736,尾矿库处于"安全"状态; 当I=-1时,指标体系中所有处于"一般安全"状态的指标项,在安全管理水平下降的情况下全部转为"不安全"状态,此时μ=0.114,尾矿库处于"不安全"状态.I的不同取值可反映尾矿库的具体安全状态,同时也反映尾矿库的安全管理水平,并充分体现了安全管理的重要性.研究为尾矿库的安全评价提供了一条新途径.     

建筑物消防系统可靠性分析

为评估建筑物消防系统的可靠性,首先将系统分为探测报警系统和灭火系统等部分,再用事件树法分析事故发生时消防系统不同部分的反应情况.通过贝叶斯理论及历史统计数据得到系统失效率的不确定性概率分布,建立消防系统可靠性随时间变化的数学模型; 用蒙特卡罗方法模拟求得系统可靠性的时间函数并对模型的不确定性参数进行敏感性分析.该方法将统计数据与经验公式、理论方法相结合,并利用蒙特卡罗方法处理模型中的不确定性,不仅能够有效估计消防系统的可靠性,还可对其他类似系统的可靠性进行分析,并通过敏感性分析为进一步减少估计的不确定性提出合理建议.     

飞行安全的针对性评估

根据飞行员执行新的或特殊任务的需要,在研制飞行安全评估系统时,设置了针对性评估模块.运用层析分析法(AHP)确定了针对性评估模块与一般性评估模块的权重关系.根据飞行安全理论确定了一般性评估简捷方法的因素、要素及量化数据;根据层析分析法、基元事件分析法确定了针对性评估模块的结构和因素的权重,采用基元事件分析法、飞行法规分析和调查研究相结合的方法,对针对性评估的要素进行了量化.最后针对具体事例做了评估计算.研究表明,当针对性评估的安全度小于90%时,应引起足够的警觉,采取必要的措施.     

多米诺效应的风险分析方法

介绍与分析多米诺效应的相关研究,并针对多米诺效应的定量风险分析,建立了从多米诺场景辨识到后果分析的多米诺效应定量分析方法.通过分析初始事故带来的物理效应对邻近设备的影响,计算了二次设备的损坏概率;分析了多米诺场景,计算了多米诺事故频率,并根据多米诺事故的后果得到个人风险和社会风险曲线.多米诺效应的风险是工业区一个潜在的严重风险,加强多米诺效应的研究对工厂和工业区的安全管理与规划都有重要意义.     

航班起飞过程的风险识别与控制

飞机起飞阶段是事故多发阶段,为了进行风险识别与控制,设计了定性判别方法和定量计算仿真算法,并以具体飞机坠毁事故为例分析了安全裕度.分别计算了飞机冲出跑道的速度、距离和逃生时间.中断起飞的速度与时间,是火灾发生后的判断关键,也构成了飞机起飞事故的裕度.结果表明,中断起飞的安全裕度比坠毁的大,且关于中断起飞的规定有矛盾之处;用于逃生的90 s规则高于中断起飞的决断速度的限制规定.该分析方法为处理危急时刻的两难决策问题提供了理论指导.     

边坡变形时序非线性判定及混沌预测研究

以探讨边坡变形性质及混沌预测可行性为目的,基于混沌理论利用相空间重构技术对其变形时间序列进行混沌特征判定,试验显示变形系统具有混沌特性,可用混沌相关理论进行研究;基于混沌相空间重构技术,笔者构建了多种混沌预测模型进行混沌预计研究,分析各类模型的工程实际应用效果;针对单次监测时序预测精度较低的问题,提出累加时序预测方案,训练结果显示,短期预测精度变形累计值基本控制在5%以内,高程值预测相对误差均低于1%,预测精度较高,可以用于工程实际。