环境监管失职罪的正确认定

结合真实案例探讨了环境监管失职罪的两个难点问题,主张运用监督过失理论认定监督人的预见范围,运用偶然因果关系的理论分析监督人的失职行为与危害结果之间的因果关系。     

A test of stress theory: relief workers in refugee camps

The purpose of this paper is to apply a stress model drawn from the literature to the relief and social service workers who have been active in refugee camps for a prolonged period of time. Working in difficult environments, social service workers deliver essential services to refugee populations around the world. A model of four work-stress determinants--tasks, management, appreciation and collaboration--was tested on 274 social workers in five regions of the Middle East (Jordan, Lebanon and Syria, as well as the occupied Palestinian territories of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank). Statistical fit indices were adequate but two relationships were statistically insignificant. The collaboration variable was dropped to create a modified model with tasks indirectly and management and appreciation directly affecting work-related stress. The five direct relationships and two indirect relationships of this modified model are consistent with stress theory, and all relationships--direct and indirect--are statistically significant.     

BP网络马尔可夫模型的水质预测研究——基于灰色关联分析

根据汾河水质的实际情况,应用BP网络马尔可夫模型对水质进行预测。采用拉依达准则剔除样本集异常数据,结合水质污染的实际情况,以COD为参考序列,应用灰色关联度对常规指标进行分析,确定BP网络的输入节点。在BP网络预测结果的基础上采用马尔可夫链对残差序列进行修正。经过关联度分析,确定氨氮、挥发酚、水温、BOD5及COD自身作为BP网络的输入节点,解决了多变量复杂系统建模过程中BP网络输入节点无法自动寻优的问题,使得BP网络的预测结果更加符合实际。对预测误差较大的样本采用马尔可夫修正误差残值,使得相对误差从-15.43%改善到了-15%,修正值更接近于实测值。BP网络马尔可夫模型,结合了BP网络和马尔可夫的优点,提高了预测的精度。     

A simple population theory for mutualism by the use of lattice gas model

The population dynamics of species interactions provides valuable information for life sciences. Lotka-Volterra equations (LVEs) are known to be the most popular model, and they are mainly applied to the systems of predation and competition. However, LVEs often fail to catch the population dynamics of mutualism; the population sizes of species increase infinitely under certain condition (divergence problem). Furthermore, LVEs never predicts the Allee effect in the systems of obligate mutualism. Instead of LVEs, several models have been presented for mutualism; unfortunately, they are rather complicated. It is, therefore, necessary to introduce a simpler theory for mutualism. In the present paper, we apply the lattice gas model which corresponds to the mean-field theory of the usual lattice model. The derived equations are cubic and contain only essential features for mutualism. In the case of obligate mutualism, the dynamics exhibits the Allee effect, and it is almost the same as in the male-female systems. In our model, the population sizes never increase infinitely, because our model contains not only intra- but also interspecific competitions. If the density of one species increases disproportionately in respect of its mutual partners, then this might imply downward pressure on the population abundance of the mutual partner species and such feedback would eventually act as a controlling influence on the population abundance of either species. We discuss several assumptions in our model; in particular, if both species can occupy in each cell simultaneously, then the interspecific competition disappears.     

Intertype mark correlation function: A new tool for the analysis of species interactions

The spatial pattern of the different species in complex ecosystems reflects the underlying ecological processes. In this paper a second order moment function is proposed and tested to analyse the spatial distribution of a mark, which could be a tree characteristic such as diameter or height, between two different types of points, which could be two different tree species. The proposed function was a conditional density function based on the intertype K_rs(d) function, incorporating as test function the correlation of the marks between pairs composed of points of different types. The results obtained in simulated and real plots prove that the function is capable of revealing the scale at which spatial correlation of the mark between two types of points exists. The proposed function allows the spatial association between individuals of different species at different life stages to be identified. This analysis may reveal information on species ecology and interspecific interactions in forest ecosystems.     

A vaccination game based on public health actions and personal decisions

Susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) models are commonly used for representing the spread of contagious diseases. A SIR model can be described in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. Here, this framework is employed for investigating the consequences of applying vaccine against the propagation of a contagious infection, by considering vaccination as a game, in the sense of game theory. In this game, the players are the government and the susceptible newborns. In order to maximize their own payoffs, the government attempts to reduce the costs for combating the epidemic, and the newborns may be vaccinated only when infective individuals are found in their neighborhoods and/or the government promotes an immunization program. As a consequence of these strategies supported by cost-benefit analysis and perceived risk, numerical simulations show that the disease is not fully eliminated and the government implements quasi-periodic vaccination campaigns.     

基因型及播种密度对冬小麦分蘖期生长、生物量分配及产量的影响

采用双因素随机区组设计,研究了分别来自干旱与湿润区的4个小麦品种6个播种密度对冬小麦生长、生物量分配及产量的影响.结果表明,在本试验条件下,生长指标、生物量积累各指标及籽粒产量均主要受基因型和播种密度互作(g×d)影响,而成穗数、穗粒数主要受播种密度(d)的影响,基因型(g)则是引起小麦籽粒产量、千粒重及穗长变化的主要因素.白粒三号和川麦39最佳播种密度为315×104 hm-2,籽粒产量达到5 863.8 kg hm-2和5 882.1 kg hm-2;西农2000与陕麦139产量最佳播种密度为195×104 hm-2,籽粒产量分别为6 422.4 kg hm-2和7 062.4 kg hm-2.陕西小麦品种籽粒产量高出四川小麦约12.90%~18.62%.相关分析表明,籽粒产量与成穗数、千粒重呈极显著正相关(r=0.859 7**,r=0.499 3**),而与穗长、地上部干重及根系长度呈极显著负相关,与穗粒数及其它生长、生物量指标无显著相关.研究表明,干旱区小麦在湿润地区种植表现出较大的增产潜力,此外,在生产中应重视基因型和播种密度二者互作所表现出来的优势.表5参31     

大鹏湾中叶绿素-a的多年调查结果及其与环境因子的灰关联分析

依据1998-2009年145个航次的调查资料,简要描述和分析大鹏湾海水中叶绿素-a含量的空间分布和时间变化,并对其与各环境因子之间的灰关联进行分析。结果表明大鹏湾海水中的叶绿素-a含量夏、秋季较高,而冬、春季较低,且表层高于底层,平均为4．6μg-L^-1;由于受到香港和深圳陆源排放的影响,终年吐露港和沙头附近海域的叶绿素-a含量明显高于其他区域。lla（1999-2009）调查期间,香港海区叶绿素-a含量各航次均值的年际变化略呈下降趋势,表明大鹏湾海水的生态环境质量有所改善。灰关联分析结果表明各因子对叶绿素-a含量影响大小的排序为：亚硝酸盐≥硝酸盐≥5d生化需氧量≥磷酸盐≥酸碱度≥氨≥可溶性总氮≥盐度兰可溶性总磷≥溶解氧≥可溶性硅兰温度。     

京津冀大气污染变化规律及其与植被指数相关性分析

基于2017年逐时空气质量监测数据、归一化植被指数（NDVI）16 d合成数据以及社会经济数据,对京津冀大气污染特征进行了系统分析,并利用线性回归、地理加权回归模型等探讨了其变化规律与NDVI的关系,及其受社会经济因素的影响.结果表明：①京津冀地区大气污染整体表现为南高北低、平原高山区低的分布特征,由北向南递次升高,大气污染呈现出显著的空间异质性;②从季节变化看,呈现冬季 > 秋季 > 春季 > 夏季的总体规律,京津冀地区大气污染呈现出显著的时间异质性;③SO₂、NO₂、CO、PM_2.5、PM₁₀等污染物浓度均与NDVI值呈负相关关系;在气候、地形等自然条件较为一致的前提下,NDVI值越低人类活动干扰越明显、产业经济布局越集中,进而污染排放量越大,对空气质量产生显著负面影响;④NDVI指数一定程度上反映了土地利用、人口分布以及产业布局状况,而这些因素直接或间接决定着大气污染排放水平,进而能够指示区域的污染分布特征;⑤地理加权回归模型（GWR）计算结果表明,经济发展水平越高的地区NDVI与社会经济因子、PM_2.5等污染物浓度相关性越好.NDVI的分布可以大体反映社会经济发展水平.对PM_2.5的分布也有一定的指示作用.