上海市松江镇饮用水水源区的保护与环境管理方案

保护集镇饮用水河流是当前水污染防治工作的重点。本文通过现状分析，针对城乡结合部河流以面源为主的特点，找出影响饮用水河流水质的主要污染源及污水排放特征．用系统分析方法，将集镇的经济、人口、环境统计资料作为环境管理模型的主要输入信息，经计算机仿真，得出保护水源水质应采取的对策与治理方案。     

榆林地区植被时空分异特征及其影响因素研究

植被作为反映陆地生态系统和气候的重要指标,对研究全球或区域生态环境变化具有重要作用。以地处黄土高原生态脆弱区的榆林市为研究区,基于地理探测器模型,选取坡向、坡度、气温、降水和土壤类型5类自然因子,土地利用类型、人口密度和GDP 3类人文因子,分析榆林地区植被空间分异特征及其驱动力,并揭示了促进植被生长影响因子的最适宜特征。结果表明,（1）研究区2000—2018年植被覆盖趋向改善,NDVI呈现增加趋势,增速为0.11/10a,2008年以后植被增长较为明显;NDVI在2018年中高等级（0.6—0.8）面积比2000年中高等级面积明显增加;中高等级集中于榆林市东部黄土丘陵区,中低等级（0.2—0.4）集中于榆林市西北部的风沙区,植被覆盖呈现东部高西北低的空间分布特征。（2）人口密度和气温因子较好地解释植被NDVI空间分异性,是影响NDVI空间分异性的主要因子,GDP、土地利用类型和坡度是次级影响因子,其他因子对NDVI空间分异存在间接影响;坡向、降水和土壤类型因子与其他自然、人文因素对植被空间分布影响存在显著性差异。（3）自然、人文因子对榆林市NDVI的影响存在交互作用,因子之间的交互...     

基于DNDC模型评估水位变化对滨海湿地净生态系统CO2交换的影响

水位是影响滨海湿地生态系统蓝碳功能的重要因素。气候变化引起的海平面上升以及极端气候事件的频发,可能加快水位的变化,从而改变生态系统碳交换的过程。然而,滨海湿地碳汇功能响应水位变化的机制尚不清楚。为了评估水位对滨海湿地净生态系统CO₂交换(NEE)特征的影响,以及验证DNDC(denitrification-decomposition)模型对模拟预测滨海湿地生态系统碳交换的适用性,该研究设计了野外水位控制试验(自然水位,地下20 cm水位、地表10 cm水位),并利用DNDC模型模拟和预测水位变化对滨海湿地NEE的影响。结果表明:(1)不同水位处理之间NEE差异显著,地表10 cm水位处理促进CO₂吸收,地下20 cm水位则抑制CO₂吸收;(2)经过校准和验证的DNDC模型可以准确模拟水位变化对黄河三角洲湿地NEE的影响,NEE模拟值的日动态与田间观测结果显著相关(R²>0.6);(3)通过改变气候、土壤和田间管理等输入参数对DNDC模型进行灵敏度检验,生态系统碳交换过程对日均温、降雨和水位改变的响应最为显著,其中,水位对NEE的影响主要作用于土壤呼吸(Rs)。未来气候情境下,不同水位变化下的生态系统碳交换过程随年份增长呈现不同的规律,因此未来的模拟研究应关注DNDC中水文模块和植被演替过程的完善。该研究可为预测水文变化情境下滨海湿地碳汇功能的未来发展以及政策制定提供参考。     

Uncertainty, learning, and the optimal management of wildlife

Wildlife management is limited by uncontrolled and often unrecognized environmental variation, by limited capabilities to observe and control animal populations, and by a lack of understanding about the biological processes driving population dynamics. In this paper I describe a comprehensive framework for management that includes multiple models and likelihood values to account for structural uncertainty, along with stochastic factors to account for environmental variation, random sampling, and partial controllability. Adaptive optimization is developed in terms of the optimal control of incompletely understood populations, with the expected value of perfect information measuring the potential for improving control through learning. The framework for optimal adaptive control is generalized by including partial observability and non-adaptive, sample-based updating of model likelihoods. Passive adaptive management is derived as a special case of constrained adaptive optimization, representing a potentially efficient suboptimal alternative that nonetheless accounts for structural uncertainty.     

湖泊富营养化模型的研究进展

湖泊的富营养化是全球普遍关注的环境问题之一.湖泊的富营养化模型是防治、修复和治理湖泊富营养化的重要决策工具.按研究的侧重点不同,将湖泊富营养化模型分为简单回归模型、水质模型、生态模型和生态-水动力水质模型,并分别回顾了四类模型的研究进展.最后指出湖泊富营养化模型的发展趋势,强调不确定理论、3S技术、耦合模型是今后湖泊富营养化模型研究的重点,应在此基础上建立通用的模拟、预测、评价和优化模型,为湖泊富营养化管理提供科学依据.     

Fe3O4-TiO2Al吸附剂去除水中氟离子

以实验室制备的Fe3O4-TiO2·nH2O·Al吸附剂处理模拟和实际含氟废水,探讨了吸附剂用量、体系pH、吸附温度和吸附时间等因素对F-吸附效果的影响。结果表明:在初始F-浓度16.1 mg/L,起始pH 8.0,吸附剂投加量5 g/L,室温(约25 ℃)下吸附15 min时,模拟和实际废水的出水F-均可达到3O4-TiO2·nH2O·Al具有一定的实际应用价值。含氟水溶液初始pH对Fe3O4-TiO2·nH2O·Al吸附F-性能影响较大。在pH 介于3.0~5.0 时,吸附容量较大,过高或过低都会导致吸附容量降低。Fe3O4-TiO2·nH2O·Al吸附F-的过程为放热反应,升温不利于F-的吸附。该吸附剂吸附F- 的过程为化学吸附,符合准二级动力学模型,等温线拟合接近Freundlich吸附等温线。     

Uncovering the evolution of tin use in the United States and its implications

• US tin use decreases as the GDP value added by manufacturing sector increases. • Global and China’s tin use increases as the GDP added by manufacturing increases. • A sigmoid curve can fit the US tin use data well. • US tin use patterns is not due to the finite tin reserves or resources. • Policies, substitutions, etc. play key roles in the changing tin use patterns. Tin is of key importance to daily life and national security; it is considered an essential industrial metal. The United States (US) is the world’s largest economy and consumer of natural resources. Therefore, the analysis of historical tin use in the US is helpful for understanding future tin use trends in the world as a whole and in developing countries. Time series analysis, regression analysis with GDP or GDP/capita, and historical data fitted with logistic and Gompertz models are employed in this study. Historical tin use in the US shows three stages—increase-constant-decrease, as GDP per capita has increased. Tin use in the US is negatively correlated with the GDP value added by the manufacturing sector, while the use of tin worldwide and in China continues to increase along with the GDP value added by the manufacturing sector. Although a sigmoid curve can fit the US tin use data well, that use is not directly related to the limited tin reserves or resources. Rather, policies, economic restructuring, substitutions, new end-use markets, etc. have played key roles in the changing tin use patterns. This work contributes to understanding future tin use at both the global and national levels: tin use will continue to increase with GDP at the global level, but use patterns of tin at the national level can be changed through human intervention.     

退化草原碱蓬土壤微生物生物量的季节动态模型

研究了东北退化草原土壤微生物生物量的季节变化,生态因子的季节变化以及生态因子对土壤微生物生物量的综合作用规律,微生物生物量W和呼吸速率W1的季节动态呈单峰上凸式曲线变化,8月份的有明显的高峰值出现,其值为：w/mg g^-1=4.9,w1/mg g^-1d^-1=28.1,同时利用IRM模型研究了生态因子对土壤微生物生物量变化的综合作用规律;Mt △Mto[1 （0.21rn-w1)△t],生态因子对土壤微生物生长的综合作用指数rn在整个生长季节的变化范围为：0.0273-0.7264,其中7-8月份rn较大,对微生物生长的限制作用较小,微生物生长较快,5月、6月、9月和10月rn较小,对微生物生长的限制作用较大,微生物生长较慢。     

Emissions of biogenic VOC from forest ecosystems in central Europe: Estimation and comparison with anthropogenic emission inventory

This paper describes a method of estimating emission fluxes of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) based on the approach proposed by Guenther et al. (1995) and the high-resolution Corine land-cover 2000 database (1 × 1 km resolution). The computed emission fluxes for the Czech Republic (selected for analysis as being representative of a heavily cultivated, central European country) are compared with anthropogenic emissions, both for the entire country and for individual administrative regions. In some regions, BVOC emissions are as high as anthropogenic emissions; however, in most regions the BVOC emissions are approximately 50% of the anthropogenic emissions. The yearly course of BVOC emissions (represented by monoterpenes and isoprene) is presented, along with the spatial distribution of annual mean values. Differences in emission distributions during winter (January) and summer (June) are also considered.     

Mutagenicity of polyaromatic hydrocarbons by chemical models for cytochrome P450 in Ames assay

DNA damage is an important step in carcinogenesis. The Ames assay is a short-term screening of carcinogens that induce DNA damage. Most carcinogens require enzymatic activation through oxidation by cytochrome P450 (CYP450) in the presence of S9 mix. A combination of iron (Fe)(III) porphyrin and an oxidant is also able to oxidize compounds as an alternative metabolic pathway to CYP450. Previously it was reported that a chemical model containing a water-soluble 5,10,15,20-tetrakis(1-methylpyridinium4-yl)porphyrinatoiron(III) chloride (4-MPy) and tert-butyl hydroperoxide (t-BuOOH) activated aromatic amines and amides. In this study, a chemical model composed of an Fe porphyrin, water-insoluble 5,10,15,20-tetrakis(pentafluorophenyl)porphyrinatoiron(III) chloride (F₅P) or water-soluble 4-MPy was optimized with an oxidant – t-BuOOH, magnesium monoperoxyphthalate (MPPT), or iodosylbenzene (PhIO). Subsequently the mutagenicity of benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) and chrysene in Salmonella typhimurium TA strains was compared. B[a]P was activated by a combination of F₅P or 4-MPy plus MPPT or PhIO in S. typhimurium TA1538. The B[a]P-induced mutagenicity with F₅P plus oxidant was higher than 4-MPy plus oxidant. Mutagenicity of chrysene, a tetracyclic aromatic hydrocarbon, was not detected in the presence of F₅P/PhIO in S. typhimurium TA98, but was activated in the presence of F₅P/MPPT. The F₅P/MPPT activated other polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) in the S. typhimurium TA98 assay including dibenz[a,c]anthracene, dibenz[a,h]anthracene, 3-methylcholanthrene, and benzo[a]anthracene. The results indicated that the F₅P/MPPT was the most efficient model for detecting PAH-induced mutagenicity in the Ames assay.