居住区地下车库噪声在建筑群间的传播和影响模拟计算

针对城市居住区2种典型的建筑布局,结合随机点声源模型,对居住区内地下车库噪声影响进行了分析计算.通过实测值和预测值的比较,该预测模型精度较好.运用该模型预测规划与新建的居住区地下车库的噪声的影响,可为城市小区建设规划中有效控制噪声污染提供科学依据.     

灰色协调度模型在产业用水系统分析中的应用

揭示产业用水系统的时空动态发展规律,探讨其内部的协调关系,是开展节水型社会建设规划,实现水资源可持续利用的关键。然而,目前对产业用水系统的协调性分析还缺乏较为有效的理论和方法。以往在利用协调度模型进行用水系统有序度研究时,通常采用两段叙述的线性分段函数表示,较不适用于描述产业用水系统内部要素的非线性结构。因此,针对产业用水系统的特性,利用灰关联原理建立有序度函数,以建立更适于用水系统分析的灰色协调度模型。利用该模型对上海市1997~2005年产业用水系统进行实证研究,结果显示：上海市产业用水系统基本有序,发展比较协调,其用水综合效益较大,但距离最优状态尚有潜力可挖;其中,农业用水子系统的发展较为欠缺,在未来用水规划中应予以重视。     

气温和湿度在泸州市城区对臭氧浓度预测的运用研究

气温和湿度均为影响臭氧生成的要素,通过分析泸州市国控点数据,找出气温和湿度与臭氧浓度的关系,从而建立气温和湿度为变量的臭氧浓度预测模型.选取2019年泸州市主城区的气温和湿度数据,将气温按日最高温(Tmax)、日最低温(Tmin)和日平均气温(Tmean)划分,将湿度按四季划分,分别统计其与臭氧浓度的相关性.发现臭氧浓...     

基于链路预测的安全隐患管理研究*

为探寻安全隐患的发生规律，揭示安全隐患的演化特点，为管理人员提供建议和参考。以潞安集团司马煤业有限公司2009—2015年安全隐患记录为数据源，建立无向加权安全隐患共词网络，利用链路预测技术，寻找安全隐患的内在联系及发展趋势。结果表明:相比于共同邻居、资源分配等基于局部信息的相似性指标，资源分配指标能够更好地预测安全隐患各个关键词之间的变化联系；通过分析关键词共现关系，证实预测的准确性，预测出部分未来存在但当前未产生的节点关系。安全管理人员可基于此方法采取有针对性的预防措施，减少相关隐患的发生。     

一种新的时间序列预报方法及其应用

本文叙述了作者提出的时间序列预报方法的基本原理,介绍了这一方法在应用过程中的发展及在实际部门应用的情况,其中包括异常旱涝灾害预报及方法的改进等最新成果。     

STATISTICAL CONSIDERATIONS ON THE RANDOMNESS OF ANNUAL MAXIMUM DAILY RAINFALL1

ABSTRACT: Annual maximum daily rainfall data from nine stations throughout the southern slopes of the Eastern Italian Alps with record length of 67–68 years have been analyzed with the aim of verifying if their internal structure justifies the assumption of independence and identical distribution, or the “White noise hypothesis.” The approach is to consider the hypothesis H₀ of white noise as the intersection of several sub-hypotheses, each concerning one of the characteristics of a white noise process. To this end the nine series were subjected to various statistical tests regarding randomness, independence, change-points, and predictability. The results are examined first individually and then globally. They indicate that in eight of the nine considered time series the “white noise hypothesis” was rejected.     

1991年世界地震灾情及地震活动特征

为适应“国际减灾十年活动”的需要,系统整理了1991年世界地震灾情及重要地震。统计结果表明:全世界1991年全年因地震死亡人数为2084人,中国只有一人;受伤人数约6500人,中国将近700人;倒塌房屋约62万间。全年直接经济损失粗略估算,国外2.7～3.2亿美元,国内约3.3亿人民币。对1991年度地震活动特点进行了简要分析。     

浙江省嘉兴市土地资源生产能力及人口承载量的初步研究

本文在分析嘉兴市农业自然资源特点和合理用地结构的基础上,预测不同时期一定生产条件下,单位面积土地上粮食、油料、肉类的生产潜力和在不同生活水平下所能承载的人口数量。     

塔里木及其周边地区的控矿构造、成矿系列和找矿预测──大型、超大型矿床找矿预测之剖析

塔里木是与华北、杨子齐名的中国三大块体之一，是连接中亚与太平洋西岸（中国东部）的桥■，一直为世人所瞩目。作者认为，塔里木板块是在前震旦系结品基底的基础上，主体部分经历了古生代稳定的陆台，中、新生代陆内盆地的演化阶段；边缘部分经历了新元古代一古生代一小生代的陆完增生和相邻洋壳的消亡。在局部地区和某些阶段，由于地壳发展的不均衡，曾发牛过裂谷、裂陷柏和扭壳断裂带。依据这一构造认识划分了赋存于塔里木板块基底构造层、中间构造层、上都构造层、古生代裂谷系、中一新生代超壳断裂排、被动边缘和陆壳增生区小的成矿系列。其中，石油、天然气、钾盐、金刚石、铜、稀有金属、铅、铸和宝玉石等多种矿产均具有非常巨大的找矿潜力。     

Influencing factors and prediction of ambient Peroxyacetyl nitrate concentration in Beijing, China

Peroxyacyl nitrates (PANs) are important secondary pollutants in ground-level atmosphere. Accurate prediction of atmospheric pollutant concentrations is crucial to guide effective precautions for before and during specific pollution events. In this study, four models based on the back-propagation (BP) artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) methods were used to predict the hourly average PAN concentrations at Peking University, Beijing, in 2014. The model inputs were atmospheric pollutant data and meteorological parameters. Model 3 using a BP-ANN based on the original variables achieved the best prediction results among the four models, with a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.7089, mean bias error of ? 0.0043 ppb, mean absolute error of 0.4836?ppb, root mean squared error of 0.5320?ppb, and Willmott's index of agreement of 0.8214. Based on a comparison of the performance indices of the MLR and BP-ANN models, we concluded that the BP-ANN model was able to capture the highly non-linear relationships between PAN concentration and the conventional atmospheric pollutant and meteorological parameters, providing more accurate results than the traditional MLR models did, with a markedly higher goodness of R. The selected meteorological and atmospheric pollutant parameters described a sufficient amount of PAN variation, and thus provided satisfactory prediction results. More specifically, the BP-ANN model performed very well for capturing the variation pattern when PAN concentrations were low. The findings of this study address some of the existing knowledge gaps in this research field and provide a theoretical basis for future regional air pollution control.