Leader self‐awareness: An examination and implications of women's under‐prediction

Self‐awareness represents an important aspect of leadership. However, past research on leader self‐awareness has focused on one component of self‐awareness, self versus others' ratings, leaving the second component, the ability to anticipate the views of others, largely neglected. We examined this second component of self‐awareness by focusing on women leaders who have been found to under‐predict how others rate them. In two studies, we measured how women leaders anticipate the views of their bosses in regard to their leadership. In Study 1, 194 leaders rated their leadership, were rated by their bosses, and then predicted how their bosses rated their leadership. While we found that women under‐predict their boss ratings compared with men, we did not find that boss gender or feedback played a role in this under‐prediction. In Study 2, 76 female leaders identified (via open‐ended questions) possible reasons and consequences of under‐prediction for women in organizations. Results from Study 2 reveal the following: (1) the reasons for women's under‐prediction include a lack of self‐confidence, differences in feedback needs, learned gender roles, and self‐sexism; and (2) the perceived consequences of under‐prediction are negative for both women and the organization. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于生物化学性质的固体废物厌氧降解特征参数

为了更简便有效地预测固体废物的厌氧降解参数,通过代表性单组份废物的生物化学甲烷潜力实验,研究了甲烷产生潜力,降解速率和碳贮藏因子这3种厌氧降解参数与生物化学性质的关系.结果表明,通过因子分析,可用多糖、蛋白质、脂肪和木质素4种成分替代C、H、N、多糖、蛋白质、脂肪、半纤维素、纤维素和木质素9种成分;再通过偏最小二乘回归数值分析,在厌氧降解参数与多糖、蛋白、脂肪、木质纤维素之间建立线性关系.结果表明,脂肪和多糖含量越高,甲烷产生潜力和降解速率就越大;木质素含量越高,则碳贮藏因子越大.蛋白质含量的增加会导致甲烷产生潜力的减小.研究建立的线性方程可为预测固体废物厌氧降解参数提供一种新的方法.     

基于农户生计的乡村能源消费模式研究——以陕南金丝峡乡村旅游地为例

为探讨乡村旅游发展对农户生计转型及能源消费模式产生的影响,论文借鉴可持续生计理论,以陕南金丝峡乡村旅游地为例,通过入户调查与访谈,构建能源消费-生计多样性模型对农户分类,基于用能多样性矩阵与效益评估法,分析不同生计类型农户用能结构及其综合效益,继而依据灰色关联分析,识别影响农户能源消费的主要生计资本因子,并总结农户能源消费模式转变的驱动机制.结果表明:① 参与旅游经营与不参与旅游经营的两大类农户中,农户用能多样性水平随生计多样性水平的提高而上升;② 与非旅游经营户相比,旅游经营户商品能源消费大幅增加,新型能源迅速推广,传统能源消费有所降低,能源消费模式向优质化和商品化发展;③ 不同类型农户用能综合效益差异明显,旅游经营户用能综合效益(16.96 元/kgce)明显大于非旅游经营户(13.53 元/kgce),表明旅游经营户从能源消费中获益更多;④ 促使农户能源消费模式变化的主要影响因素是物质、人力和金融三大生计资本.乡村旅游业发展带来了农户生计资本与策略的变化,并成为农户能源消费模式转变的重要驱动力,最后为进一步改善环境政策和优化能源利用,提出了相应的对策和建议.     

基于自适应调整蚁群-RBF神经网络模型的中长期径流预测

径流预测历来是水利部门的一项重要工作,针对水库和河流中长期径流预测精度不高,提出了自适应调节人工蚁群算法(ARACS),对RBF神经网络参数进行优化,建立了自适应调节人工蚁群-RBF神经网络组合算法(ARACS-RBF)预测模型,综合考虑影响径流预变化因素,对安康水库进行中长期径流预测。对预测效果进行检验,结果证实该模型可真实地反映河川径流变化的总体趋势, 并为判断时间序列数据的非线性提供了一种新方法。与RBF神经网络模型、人工蚁群-RBF神经网络模型预测结果进行对比,结果表明,应用ARACS-RBF模型对中长期径流量进行预测,预测精度更高、效果更好。该方法克服了RBF神经网络和人工蚁群算法易陷于局部极值、搜索质量差和精度不高的缺点,改善了RBF神经网络的泛化能力,收敛速度快,输出稳定性好,提高了径流预测的精度,置信度为98%时的预测相对误差小于6.5%。可有效用于水库和河川中长期径流预测。     

动态浸滤及几种静态预测法对云浮硫铁矿酸化特征及产酸潜力的比较

用几种静态预测方法研究了来自云浮硫铁矿矿石的产酸潜力,并结合动态浸滤试验方法对比了新旧矿石的氧化过程及产酸的动力学特征.静态预测结果表明:该矿矿石的净中和酸潜力NNP<-20、中和酸能力与产酸潜力比NP/AP<1:1、静产酸量NAG>10、NAG-pH<4,是强产酸矿.连续25周的动态浸滤试验研究表明:受碳酸盐控制,新矿浸滤液的pH值在7.46—6.45呈缓慢下降的趋势,25周内减小了近1个pH单位;旧矿已经产酸,浸滤液初期pH<4,10周内迅速下降到pH<3,体系氧化性及硫化物的氧化速率远远高于新矿,金属的释放大大增加.     

Updating coarse-scale species distribution models using small fine-scale samples

Large, fine-grained samples are ideal for predictive species distribution models used for management purposes, but such datasets are not available for most species and conducting such surveys is costly. We attempted to overcome this obstacle by updating previously available coarse-grained logistic regression models with small fine-grained samples using a recalibration approach. Recalibration involves re-estimation of the intercept or slope of the linear predictor and may improve calibration (level of agreement between predicted and actual probabilities). If reliable estimates of occurrence likelihood are required (e.g., for species selection in ecological restoration) calibration should be preferred to other model performance measures. This updating approach is not expected to improve discrimination (the ability of the model to rank sites according to species suitability), because the rank order of predictions is not altered. We tested different updating methods and sample sizes with tree distribution data from Spain. Updated models were compared to models fitted using only fine-grained data (refitted models). Updated models performed reasonably well at fine scales and outperformed refitted models with small samples (10-100 occurrences). If a coarse-grained model is available (or could be easily developed) and fine-grained predictions are to be generated from a limited sample size, updating previous models may be a more accurate option than fitting a new model. Our results encourage further studies on model updating in other situations where species distribution models are used under different conditions from their training (e.g., different time periods, different regions).     

动载下石灰岩能耗指标影响因素研究*

为研究石灰岩在动载破坏过程中的能量耗散,基于Φ50 mm的霍普金森压杆系统,对石灰岩开展三轴动静加载冲击试验,深入分析入射能、反射能、透射能、耗散能、能耗率与轴压、围压、应变率（冲击气压）之间的关系,并借助灰色关联理论分析石灰岩围压、应变率、纵波波速与能耗特征的关联。研究结果表明:入射能和耗散能均与应变率呈正向增长趋势,且耗散能应变率相关性更强;能耗率与围压呈反向增长趋势,低围压条件有利于石灰岩的破碎;能耗程度与冲击气压、围压、纵波波速的关联度分别为0.729 9,0.705 4,0.581 5,围压和冲击气压的灰色关联度大于0.6,因此围压和冲击气压对石灰岩能量耗散特征有显著影响。研究结果对于喀斯特地貌石灰岩爆破施工具有重要的参考价值。