城市安全生产影响因素及其预测分析——以上海为例

为研究我国城市安全生产的影响因素及预测城市安全生产的发展趋势,以上海市为例,对2004—2010年期间与安全生产相关的数据进行灰色关联度分析,提取影响安全生产状况的主要经济社会因素,并与工矿商贸死亡人数之间建立回归模型。研究结果表明,工矿商贸死亡人数与第二产业比重、GDP增长率、教育支出占GDP比重以及私营及个体工商户比例均呈现负相关。基于2007—2011年各月份上海市的安全生产死亡人数,运用Winters乘法模型,预测上海市安全生产发展趋势。     

江西食物生产波动特征与效率研究

食物波动与效率是食物安全的重要研究内容。1993~2003年江西省平均食物生产全要素相对生产率为0.974,其规模效益基本上呈现常数规模效益与规模效益递增交替波动现象。灰色关联分析表明,粮食产量、油料产量、肉类产量、糖料产量等与食物总量具有显著关联性,其灰色关联序为：粮食产量＞油料产量＞肉类产量＞糖料产量＞禽蛋产量＞水果产量＞牛奶产量,所以要保证食物总量安全,必须首先保障粮食、油料、肉类等的生产。     

基于改进TOPSIS的受灾点需求紧迫性分级研究

地震发生初期,各受灾点对物资需求的紧迫性存在差异。在应急资源有限的情况下,为提高救援效率,应急资源需要按照受灾点需求紧迫性优先级进行分配和调度。首先,构建了受灾点需求紧迫性评价指标体系,并采用博弈论方法将熵权法和层次分析法相结合,确定权重组合系数及各评价指标综合权重。其次,利用马氏距离和灰色关联分析改进TOPSIS方法,建立了受灾点应急物资需求紧迫性分级模型。最后,将模型应用于受灾点应急物资需求紧迫性分级研究,并将该评价结果与传统TOPSIS法的评价结果进行比较,结果表明,该评价方法可以科学、客观地确定权重组合系数,消除指标间相关性,使评价结果符合实际情况,表明该评价方法科学、可行、有效,能为应急救援物资配送提供有效支持和决策。     

基于不同强度等级混凝土的动力学特性研究

基于TAW-2000D电液伺服岩石三轴仪和直径75 mm的霍普金森压杆试验装置,得到了C25,C35和C45混凝土在静、动载荷作用下的应力-应变曲线,探讨了混凝土强度等级、动态峰值强度、峰值应变和应变率之间的变化规律。结果表明:混凝土准静态应力-应变曲线和动态应力-应变曲线在形态上存在明显差异,动态应力-应变曲线的峰值点随应变率的增大向右上方移动,线弹性阶段各曲线斜率变化不明显;动态峰值应力、动态弹性模量和峰值应变均存在不同程度的率相关性,并且混凝土材料的应变率敏感性随其强度等级的提高而增强;混凝土C45的各力学指标对应变率的敏感性最强,C35次之,C25的应变率敏感性最弱;推导了应变率与强度等级和冲击速率之间的经验公式,三者之间存在非线性变化规律。     

基于博弈赋权和灰色关联投影的电网综合风险评估方法

为了对风险形式多样化的电网进行全面客观的评估,提出了一种基于博弈赋权和灰色关联投影的电网综合风险评估方法。首先,通过分析现代电网面临的风险因素,从网架结构、运行状态、能源供给3个方面重新构建了风险评估指标体系;其次,基于博弈赋权模型融合指标主观权值与客观权值,最大化消除了单一赋权法造成的权值偏差;然后,通过灰色关联投影模型计算风险指标样本在理想解上的投影,并以风险指标样本对负理想解的优属度来表征电网综合风险大小;最后,通过案例分析验证了所提方法的有效性和正确性。研究所得电网综合风险评估结果具有合理性和可靠性,对电网调度规划决策的形成具有一定的指导作用。     

Are servant leaders appreciated? An investigation of how relational attributions influence employee feelings of gratitude and prosocial behaviors

Multisource data collected at three time phases were used in investigating when servant leadership elicits gratitude and then promotes prosocial behaviors. We tested a moderated mediation model, contending that relational attributions moderate the relationship between servant leadership and gratitude, and then gratitude sequentially predicts interpersonal citizenship behaviors and upward voice. As hypothesized, when employees do not highly rely on relational attributions for servant leadership, they feel more gratitude and subsequently engage in more interpersonal citizenship behaviors and upward voice than the employees who rely on relational attributions to explain their interactions with the leader. The sequential indirect effect from servant leadership to upward voice via gratitude and then interpersonal citizenship behaviors was significant when relational attributions are low rather than high.     

External relational attributions: Attributing cause to others' relationships

I present an attributional approach to understanding how people perceive and respond to the effects of others' relationships in the workplace by suggesting that people perceive others' relationships to be causal sources of workplace outcomes. Specifically, I suggest that individuals' responses to negative outcomes at work can be better understood by differentiating between two types of external attributional explanations: external relational attributions and external nonrelational attributions. This research focuses on the conceptual development of external relational attributions, which are defined as those attributional explanations made for outcomes or behaviors experienced or observed by a focal individual that locate the cause of an outcome within the relationship between two others (people, groups, organizations, or any combination), not including the focal individual. Further, I propose situational antecedents and behavioral outcomes of external relational attributions, with an emphasis on individuals' behaviors toward others' relationships. Lastly, I highlight the advantages of considering the role of others' relationships when applying attribution theory to a variety of organizational phenomena and present directions for future research.     

环境质量的模糊综合评判—灰色关联分析

本文简要分析了环境质量评价中目前广泛应用的各种评价方法与模型。在此基础上提出环境质量综合评判－灰色关联优势分析复合模型，应用于黄山风景区景观生态环境质量的综合评价，取得了满意的结果。     

河西走廊园林绿地复合系统的夏季小气候效应

选择17种不同结构的园林绿地复合系统，对光照、温度、湿度和防尘效应进行测定，综合评价这17种园林绿地复合系统在改善城市气候方面的作用．结论是：乔、灌、草园林绿地复合系统在改善城市气候方面的作用最大，表4参7     

天空蓝色饱和程度与城市空气质量等级的相关性

以大气散射理论为基础,结合颜色学、大气环境监测及城市空气质量日报等相关原理,从理论分析与实证研究2个方面证实了天空蓝色饱和程度与城市空气质量等级之间存在着显著的负相关性,即:天空蓝色饱和程度越低,空气污染等级越高,空气质量状况越差;天空蓝色饱和程度越高,空气污染等级较低,空气质量状况越好;通过相关及回归分析与检验,制得“城市空气质量等级目测色卡”,适用于晴朗天气肉眼观察天空颜色,进而目测估计空气质量等级状况,以采取必要防护措施。