Use of principal component analysis to profile temporal and spatial variations of chlorinated solvent concentration in groundwater

This work aims at evaluating spatial distribution patterns of concentration variations for chlorinated solvents in groundwater, based on principal component analysis and geographic information system (GIS) tools. The study investigates long-time series of chlorinated solvent concentrations in groundwater measured for 18 contaminated industrial sites. The characterization of contaminant plumes and delineation of pollutant sources are essential for choosing appropriate monitoring and remediation strategies, as contaminated groundwaters are characterized by complex patterns of spatial and temporal concentration variability, with wide unpredictable fluctuations over time. The present work describes the results of a new exploratory statistical method called the Variability Index Method (VIM) applied to environmental data to assess the performance of using concentration variations as molecular tracers to reveal aquifer dynamics, industrial impacts, and point sources for contamination plumes. The application of this method provides a useful assessment of controls over contaminant concentration variations as well as support for remediation techniques.     

Is the integration of hormesis and essentiality into ecotoxicology now opening Pandora's Box?

Hormesis and essentiality are likely real and common effects at the level of the individual. However, the widespread incorporation of stimulatory effects into applications of ecotoxicology requires the acceptance of assumptions, value judgements and possibly lowering of water/sediment quality standards. There is also currently little data appropriate for considering hormetic effects in the ecotoxicological context. Except perhaps in the case of fitting concentration-response curves, it is not clear that incorporation of hormetic and essentiality type responses into ecotoxicology is necessary. Furthermore, its incorporation presents considerable intellectual and practical changes for ecotoxicology and could have unanticipated consequences.     

清洁生产与ISO14000环境管理体系关系的初探

从ISO14000环境管理体系与清洁生产两者产生的背景及涵义出发,讨论了两者的同一性和差异性,提出了在21世纪的新形势下,把清洁生产与ISO14000两者有机的结合,是实现可持续发展的重要手段。     

面向灾害应用的遥感影像融合统一理论体系设计

由于缺乏统一的理论体系指导,目前遥感影像融合研究相对比较混乱。针对像素级融合统一理论框架的思想,指出了遥感影像融合研究的方向和思路,将像素级融合统一理论框架逐步向特征级和决策级推广,着重发展了一套遥感影像融合统一理论体系。在统一体系下,面向灾害监测应用,按照理论研究、方法研究和应用研究的3个层次进行该理论体系的设计。     

覆冰输电塔-线体系风致动力响应分析

依据流体诱发振动原理,结合已有覆冰计算模型,考虑降雨的分类,模拟了输电塔-线体系不同高度导线的覆冰和风荷载。以东北地区某输电塔为例,对覆冰输电塔-线体系在稳定风速激励下的动力响应进行分析,并与不考虑塔线耦联的导线舞动分析结果及覆冰塔线拟静力的分析结果进行对比,对塔位移、输电线位移、钢材应力进行了分析。研究结果表明:塔-线耦联体系对覆冰导线风振有很大影响,覆冰输电塔抗风设计安全度需要进一步提高。     

基于岩体质量指标Q分类系统的风险分析方法

基于岩体质量指标Q分类系统,应用Monte-Carlo模拟技术,研究了岩体质量风险分析方法。该方法视Q分类系统中各单因素取值为随机变量,建立了各单因素取值概率模型;通过对所建模型的抽样计算,可获取所评价岩体实际Q值小于设计所采用Q值的概率;通过对比分析Q值累计曲线和岩体质量分布图,可得到任意Q值对应的风险概率,查清岩体中可能出现的质量等级以及每个质量等级所占百分比的情况。本文研究成果已在青岛胶州湾海底隧道工程中得到应用,并获得良好效果。     

基于现代信息技术的城市灾害应急管理系统

城市灾害应急管理系统是一项复杂的大系统工程。本文着重从应急管理过程中的应急资源调配、应急预案制定等方面阐述了现代信息技术在城市灾害应急管理中的应用与优势。认为应急管理信息系统的建立目的不是为了预测和估算,而应是当灾害发生时,对已造成的灾情局面做出快速的辅助决策支持。基于此,利用SuperMapObject5.0,Visual Basic6.0,SQL Server2000等现代信息技术软件,以辅助决策、资源快速查询以及生命线管网易损处调查为目的,本文建立了一个局部地区灾害应急管理信息系统。系统的数据库建立更突出了为应急管理服务所需的基础信息、空间数据、应急预案和应急资源等信息划分方式;结合已有的震害预测理论和方法,开发了供水系统和交通系统的震害预测模块,事先为灾害应急决策提供可能的震害信息。系统的开发过程进一步证明了GIS在城市灾害应急管理中有着直观显示、容易操作、辅助准确决策等优势。     

城市震后救灾系统救灾决策研究

论述了震后救灾系统模型及评估方法,采用Ｍｏｎｔｅ Ｃａｒｌｏ模拟和最优化技术理论,建立了城市震后救灾、救护、运输网络系统的可靠性分析方法和以失效概率为控制参数的最佳路径优化方法,并以某城市网络系统为例通过分析研究,给出了震后救灾决策方法。     

阵性泥石流运动与堆积的欧拉─拉格朗日模型──Ⅰ.理论

自然界中的泥石流具有突发性和非恒定性的特点。为了模拟典型泥石流现象,在流团模型的 基础上,进一步完善了基于欧拉─拉格朗日（Ｅ—Ｌ）观点的ＰＩＣ（Ｐａｒｃｅｌ　Ｉｎ　Ｃｅｌｌ）算法,细化了流元结 构,建立了能够模拟典型阵性泥石流发生、运动和堆积的准结构两相流模型。求解该模型不仅可以 模拟泥石流运动过程,而且可以对泥石流的堆积过程、停积形态、冲刷特征及泥石流中多组分颗粒 的分选特征进行定量描述。     

Characteristics and driving factors of marsh changes in Zhalong wetland of China

Zhalong National Nature Reserve in the northeast of China is a large wetland and a habitat of hundreds species of fauna and flora. The rare red-crowned crane is one kind of endangered birds in it. Recently, Zhalong wetland is shrinking and it encounters many problems including occasional fires, bad water quality, human activities, etc. In order to find out a proper way to protect and restore the wetland, this study, using a geographic information system, the global positioning system and remote sensing techniques, analyses the spatial characteristics of the changes in marsh landscape pattern and examines the driving factors for these changes. Data sources include 8 Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite images of Zhalong area in the period of 1986–2002 and the investigation information on site. Based on the analysis of changes of marsh area and annual precipitation during the 16 years, it is found that there is a close correlation between annual precipitation and marsh area. It means that climate is one of driving factors of marsh pattern changes. To understand influences of other kinds of land uses on marsh spatial distribution in Zhalong wetland, this paper analyses the relationship between marsh and different kinds of land uses, such as water surface, residential area, farmland, salina land and grass land, respectively. According to the patch analysis theory, a fragmental index and a fractal dimension of the marsh are calculated with perimeter-area method. The results indicate that the marsh pattern is affected by human activities significantly. In addition, the location alteration of marsh centroid point over the 16 years is studied. The movement trace of marsh centroid point is concerned with different hydrological situation in different areas of the wetland. In summary the characteristics of the marsh landscape pattern evolution during the 16 years are affected by multiple driving factors. The main driving factors are climate, human activities, distribution of other kinds of land uses and hydrological situation in different areas.