Investigating traffic fatality trends and restraint use among rear-seat passengers in the United States, 2000–2016

Introduction: Motor-vehicle crash is one of the leading causes of unintentional injury death in the United States. Previous studies focused on fatalities among drivers and front-seat passengers, with a limited number of studies examining rear-seat passenger fatalities. The objectives of this study were to assess trends in rear-seat passenger motor-vehicle fatalities in the United States from 2000 to 2016 and to identify demographic factors associated with being unrestrained among fatally injured rear-seat passengers. Methods: Rear-seat passenger fatality data were obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) database. The fatality rate ratios for overall rear-seat passengers and for different age and sex groups were determined by comparing fatality rates in 2000 and 2016 using random effects models. Risk ratios of being unrestrained for age and sex groups were obtained using general estimating equations. Results: Compared to 2000, the overall rear-seat passenger fatality rate in 2016 decreased by 44% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 39–49%). In particular, the fatality rate among rear-seat passengers decreased more in males than females, and passengers aged 14–19 years experienced a larger decline than all other age groups. Fatally injured male rear-seat passengers had a higher risk of being unrestrained (adjusted risk ratio: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.04–1.07) than their female counterparts, and both youngest (≤13 years) and oldest (65–85 years) passengers were less likely to be unrestrained than those aged 20–64 years. Conclusions: Overall, fatality rates among rear-seat passengers have declined, with differential degrees of improvement by age and sex. Practical Applications: Continued restraint use enforcement campaigns targeted at teenagers and males would further preserve them from fatal injuries and improve traffic safety for the overall population.     

北京市高海拔地区百花山空气质量状况及与市区的差异性研究

对北京市远郊百花山(海拔1300 m)2007—2017年大气常规6项污染物数据进行了分析,并与代表市区的国控站点均值数据进行了比较。研究发现,百花山SO2、CO、PM2.5浓度为国控站点浓度的35.5%~35.7%,NO2、PM 10、O 3浓度分别为国控站点浓度的14.0%、41.5%、185.5%。11年间,百花山6项常规污染物浓度逐年降低。2013—2017年,百花山PM2.5浓度年均降速为11.4%,低于国控站点13.3%的年均改善水平。百花山和国控站点在污染物季节变化趋势上基本一致,秋季颗粒物浓度差异最大,春季差异最小。百花山6项污染物的日变化峰谷比值为1.21~1.44,其差异小于国控站点。各项污染物浓度在18:00出现峰值,认为主要受城区远距离传输影响。2013—2017年,百花山共出现5个PM2.5重污染天,5级以上重污染小时数为442 h,国控站点有2%的重污染小时与百花山同步。     

中国气候变化的科学新认知

了解和认识百年来中国气候发生的变化、引起其变化的驱动因素以及未来的可能变化,可以更好地适应和减缓气候变化。本文综合评估了观测到的中国气候变化事实、中国气候变化的驱动力、中国未来气候变化预估三大方面,分析了气候变暖的趋势、水循环以及降水和冰川变化、极端天气气候事件变化、生物化学循环、海洋和土地覆盖变化及其气候效应以及未来气候变化的特点和趋势等最新科学进展。在中国百年温度趋势、气候系统多气候指标变化特征、极端天气气候事件中的人类活动作用以及气候系统模拟能力等方面的研究有了新的进展。可以看到中国气候变暖趋势持续、大气二氧化碳等长寿命温室气体浓度继续增长、人为强迫影响了多种气候要素在强度和频率的变化,中国陆地生态系统的固碳量增加。本文最后提出未来中国气候变化研究需要进一步加强的问题,包括:中国气候变化中的城市化效应、气候系统内部变率在年代际变化中的作用、气溶胶-云-降雨相互作用的机理、大范围土地利用变化(如大规模生态恢复工程)的气候效应,以及云辐射反馈、海洋环流对气候变化的响应与反馈、气候-碳循环反馈等过程对气候模拟不确定的影响等。     

从传统走向现代——发展中的中国环境监测

提出了环境监测学的6个理论命题和4个基本原理，通过界定环境监测对象和环境监测内容，分析了7个领域环境监测技术方法学的发展趋势。     

A review of research on China’s carbon emission peak and its forcing mechanism

In order to make further steps in dealing with climate change, China proposed to peak carbon dioxide emissions by about 2030 and to make best efforts for the peaking early. The carbon emission peak target (CEPT) must result in a forcing mechanism on China’s economic transition. This paper, by following the logical order from “research on carbon emission history” to “carbon emission trend prediction,” from “research on paths of realizing peak” to “peak restraint research,” provides a general review of current status and development trend of researches on China’s carbon emission and its peak value. Furthermore, this paper also reviews the basic theories and specific cases of the forcing mechanism. Based on the existing achievements and development trends in this field, the following research directions that can be further expanded are put forward. First, from the perspective of long-term strategy of sustainable development, we should analyze and construct the forcing mechanism of CEPT in a reverse thinking way. Second, economic transition paths under the forcing mechanism should be systematically studied. Third, by constructing a large-scale policy evaluation model, the emission reduction performance and economic impact of a series of policy measures adopted during the transition process should be quantitatively evaluated.     

长江中游荆南三口河系径流演变特征及趋势预测

以荆南三口五站1951~2015年实测径流数据,利用Mark-Kendall趋势突变检验法、累计距平、Morlet复小波等方法分析三口河系径流演变特征;选用ARIMA模型和时间序列模型预测荆南三口河系径流演变趋势。结果表明:(1)荆南三口径流年际变化较大,径流年内分配不均匀,5~10月为丰水期,11月~次年4月为枯水期,呈现出明显季节差异;(2)三口径流总体上呈下降趋势,其中以1959~1980年径流下降趋势最为明显,其趋势幅度p的绝对值达到了698.313,2003~2015年径流下降趋势较为缓慢,无明显趋势,但其p的绝对值仍达到了166.524;(3)运用Mark-Kendall突变检验及累计距平法共同检验,三口径流突变年份为1970年、1985年;(4)1951~2015年间三口径流变化过程主要存在48~58 a、20~28 a、10~18 a 3个尺度的周期变化,以55 a、24 a、14 a为周期中心,其小波方差显示三口径流序列第一、第二、第三主周期分别为55 a、24 a、14 a;(5)三口径流在2016~2030年呈现出先减小后增大的趋势,即2016~2018年为波动增减期,2019~2026年前后为枯水期,2026~2030年为丰水期。     

环境决策支持系统的设计技术及发展趋势

简要论述了环境决策支持系统(EDSS)的发展历程,提出了EDSS开发技术的六大构成部分:应用平台的选择;系统的开发方式的选择;系统的开发工具的选择;系统的组成结构的建立;系统的基本功能的设计;系统的开放接口的设计。对系统设计的关键技术进行了分析,依据EDSS的应用现状,指出EDSS的发展趋势,对实际应用具有一定的指导意义和实用价值。     

古运河营养元素分布特征及富营养化趋势分析

根据2005～2009年各季度对镇江古运河水体多项指标的监测资料,分析了古运河水体中N、P营养元素的时空分布特征,选用营养状态质量指数法对水体营养状态进行了评价,并预测了古运河水体的富营养化趋势。结果表明,古运河水体中营养元素随年度呈先增后减的特征,而年内季度分布不明显,空间分布基本呈从上游向下游递增的规律;2005～2009年,古运河水体连年处于富营养水平,2007年最为严重,但自2007年以来,水体营养水平逐年下降,水体富营养化趋势有所减缓。     

“十一五”期间上海市金山区环境空气污染特征分析

对金山区2006-2010年环境空气质量监测数据进行统计分析和综合评价,找出"十一五"期间金山区环境空气中主要污染物变化规律及环境空气主要污染特征,并进行污染趋势分析,就环境空气中TSP和PM₁₀以及SO₂、NO₂和酸雨之间的相关性进行了探讨,均具有显著相关性。     

成都市河流水质变化趋势及污染控制措施

研究了2001—2012年成都市河流水质类别变化趋势,结果表明:该市河流Ⅰ类~Ⅲ类水质类别占比从"十五"期间的35.5%上升后,能多年稳定在61.5%~71.8%之间;岷江内江劣Ⅴ类水质占比从"十一五"的4.5%飙升至2012年的33.3%,水质恶化情势令人担忧;集中式饮用水源地都江堰水文站2011—2012年连续2 a水质由Ⅱ类降为Ⅲ类;岷江出境断面黄龙溪、岳店子水质多年不达标,形势堪忧。为此,提出有效划定全市人口、经济生态红线,建立入境断面水质监测管理与启用应急备用水源联动机制,发掘和推广水质持续改善区域先进管理经验,着力Ⅳ类水域治理,是实现成都市河流水质污染控制目标的关键措施。