黄河径流序列标度不变性分析及趋势预测研究

长期以来，影响黄河干流梯级电站可持续发展的因素，除了关键技术因素、经济因素和环境因素，还有对未来径流趋势的认知不足。可见研究黄河干流径流变化趋势，对于黄河干流梯级电站可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。论文利用非趋势的波动分析法，对黄河干流贵德、头道拐和花园口3个水文站径流的标度不变性和未来变化趋势进行了分析和预测。结果显示，3个水文站的径流量将会减少，这将对黄河干流梯级电站可持续发展不利。     

气候变化对秦皇岛地区降水量影响分析

以秦皇岛市为例,研究了气候变暖对地表降水量的影响.通过对51年来秦皇岛市气候、降水材料的分析得出结论:秦皇岛市近年来明显变暖,年平均气温上升约2℃,同时气候变干,降水量减少18.3%;气候变化会引起水循环的变化及水资源在时空上的重新分布以及水资源总量的改变,对流域内的水资源量影响十分显著.     

种植业面源污染防控技术发展历程分析及趋势预测

种植业对农业面源污染贡献不容小觑.已有治理技术并不在少数,但受技术参数模糊和技术应用效果不明朗等因素的影响,现阶段技术应用和污染治理效果不理想.对此,本研究基于近20年国内外种植业面源污染防控的发表论文,明确种植业面源污染防治技术的体系框架,梳理技术的发展历程,比较不同方向技术对生产投入、产量及污染物排放的作用效果,对新时期下我国植业面源污染防控的发展前沿趋势作出预判.本研究构建了源头削减、过程拦截和养分回用这3个领域以及栽培、生态沟渠和尾/废水等14个方向的技术体系.结果发现,源头削减领域获得了最高关注度,研究方向多且热度仍在不断提升;我国对其中肥料方向技术的研究集中度较高.相比之下,过程拦截和养分回用领域的技术较为单一和欠缺.养分利用效率提升、转运过程调控和土壤添加剂使用将是种植业面源污染防控未来的主要着力点和抓手.农田基础设施的配套及后端净化体系的构建,将有助于集成、耦合多领域技术,进一步确保种植业面源污染防控的作用效果.     

香烟侧流烟中超细颗粒物释放及衰减特性

超细颗粒物(Ultrafine Particles,UFPs)能够进入人体肺泡组织进而危害人体健康,为了解香烟侧流烟中UFPs数浓度和表面积浓度释放及衰减特性,结合环境舱和现场实验结果对不同品牌香烟颗粒进行了分析.结果表明:燃烧过程中UFPs数浓度和表面积浓度峰值粒径分别为47.5~66.3 nm和85.6~100.5 nm,衰减2 h后,数浓度和表面积浓度峰值粒径仍小于200 nm;不同品牌香烟侧流烟中UFPs数浓度和表面积浓度释放速率分别为4.22×10~(12)~5.23×10~(12)个·min~(-1)和5.95×10~(10)~6.90×10~(10)μm2~·min~(-1),根据该释放速率模拟得到的不同换气率条件下UFPs数浓度衰减趋势与实验结果相符;通风和实验环境均会影响UFPs的衰减速率,随着换气率由0.7次·h~(-1)增至7次·h~(-1),侧流烟中UFPs的衰减时间由3 h降低至40 min,吸附作用的存在亦会加快UFPs的衰减速率.     

上海地区主要农作物气象灾害评估预测警示系统的研究

主要农作物气象灾害评估预测警示系统网页共有二部分内容：历年灾害动态对比和早涝趋势预测与警示。历年灾害动态对比是对比1991年以后上海地区主要表l作物气象灾害的变化情况。早涝趋势预测是在降水趋势预测基础上，对未来月或农时段降水量进行预测。     

Climatology,Trend Analysis and Prediction of Sandstorms and their Associated Dustfall in China

Based on statistical data about Sand and Dust Storms (SDS) and their associated dustfall, features of temporal and spatialdistribution were studied first in this article. SDS and associateddustfalls occurred most often in northern China, especiallynorthwestern China. However, in the last two years, they have atendency to occur on the central and western parts of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. As a result, Beijing is now among the impact areas, and the Chinese government is paying greaterattention to the matter. The changing trends of SDS and associated dustfalls were subsequently analyzed. Occurrences were seen to be decreasing with the feature of fluctuation duringthe period of 1954–2001, but they have slightly increased since 2000. Also, climate factors related to SDS and associated dustfalls were discussed. Finally, it was recommended that methods to predict SDS in China be further studied in the future.     

LONG TERM TRENDS OF ANNUAL AND MONTHLY PRECIPITATION IN JAPAN1

ABSTRACT: Long term trends in Japan's annual and monthly precipitation are investigated in this study. The statistical significance of a trend at a study site is assessed by the Mann‐Kendall (MK) test, and field significance of trends in climatic Regions II, III, and IV is evaluated using the bootstrap test preserving cross correlation. The practical significance of a trend is judged by a percentage change of the sample mean over an observation period. The field significance assessment demonstrates that annual precipitation in Region II did not show any significant change, but regional precipitation shifts occurred in different months. Precipitation significantly increased by 12.2 percent in May, while it significantly decreased by 12.0, 10.5, 15.6, and 19.7 percent, respectively, in April, September, October, and December. In Region III, annual precipitation declined by 11.8 percent, and monthly precipitation significantly decreased from September through January and in April, with the greatest decrease (38.2 percent) in December. In Region IV, significant reductions occurred in both annual precipitation (by 15.6 percent) and monthly precipitation from September through February and in June and July, with the worst reduction (44.7 percent) in December.     

华东地区地震成组活动特征及未来趋势的定量分析

对华东地区1300年以来中强地震活动特征,利用强震组增益P、强震组效能R和强震组分布变异值S等三种指标进行了定量分析,结果显示该区不同时段、不同震级的地震活动呈现不同的特征和分布类型; 同时用b值方法分析了目前地震活动状态;在此基础上应用泊松模型对未来地震趋势进行了概率预测.     

精确空投缓冲气囊材料研究

介绍了精确空投着陆缓冲的作用原理以及对气囊材料的要求,分析了聚酰胺、聚酯纤维2种气囊织物材料和氯丁橡胶、硅酮2种涂层材料的结构性能及发展,总结了当前主要的新材料技术,提出了着陆缓冲气囊材料的发展趋势.     

1961-2006年东北地区农业气候资源变化特征

应用1961-2006年中国东北三省72个气象台站的气象资料,统计分析了东北三省稳定农耕期、生长期及积温、降水量、日照时数农业气候资源的变化特征,结果表明:研究期间,东北三省平均农耕期、生长期分别延长了2.4 d·10 a^-1、2.3 d·10 a^-1;经Mann-Kendall检验,农耕期长度、生长期长度分别在1988年、1992年发生突变。46 a东北三省积温表现为一致的增多趋势,降水量、日照时数呈减少趋势。分析比较突变年前后两个时段的农业气候资源变化,农耕期、生长期平均积温高值区向东、向北扩展;农耕期降水量高值区、低值区面积萎缩,中值区向东南方向扩张,生长期降水量中高值区面积减少;农耕期平均日照时数呈现高值区、低值区面积减少,而生长期日照时数呈现高值区、低值区面积增大的特点。