2005年-2014年安阳市城市空气质量变化趋势分析及治理对策研究

利用2005年-2014年安阳市城市空气质量自动监测数据,采用Daniel趋势校验法对空气质量变化趋势进行分析,确定主要污染物,探讨影响空气质量变化的因素,提出改善空气质量的综合治理措施.结果表明2005年-2014年安阳市空气综合污染指数为2.60,属轻度污染,首要污染物为PM10,其次为SO2,冬季污染较重,呈现尘污染与煤烟型污染特征;大气污染物存在显著的空间差异性,西北工业区污染较重;总体上,综合污染指数、SO2、PM10均呈不显著上升趋势,NO2呈现显著上升趋势.     

三峡库区干流总磷浓度变化趋势分析研究

通过分析2000年-2015年的三峡库区长江、嘉陵江、乌江干流总磷浓度数据,掌握三峡库区总磷总体水平,长江干流总磷浓度为0.135±0.043 mg/1,为Ⅲ类水质;嘉陵江总磷浓度较低,为0.075±0.033 mg/1,为Ⅱ类水质;乌江干流总磷浓度较高,约为0.403±0.288 mg/1,为V类水质.长江重庆段入境朱沱断面的总磷浓度在枯、丰水期呈显著上升趋势,出境培石断面的总磷浓度在枯、平水期呈显著上升趋势.乌江干流入境万木断面和入库锣鹰断面总磷浓度变化趋势一致,都表现为先升高后降低.从2009年开始升高,在2011年或2012年达到峰值,最大浓度超过1.0 mg/1,然后开始逐年下降,到2015年浓度下降到0.2 mg/l.     

饮用水水源地水质现状评价及变化趋势分析研究

以四川省南部县燕子窝饮用水水源地和五面山饮用水水源地为研究对象,采用最大评分法与分类法相结合的综合评价方法,对南部县水源地水质现状评价及变化趋势进行了分析,评价结果表明南部县县城水源地水质的综合指标都已经迭到了《地表水环境质量标准》(GB 3838-2002)中的Ⅱ类水标准,个别指标能达到Ⅰ类标准.利用PWQTrend软件对南部县水源地水质变化趋势进行了预测分析,分析结果表明,自2009年以来,南部县水源地水质总体得到了明显的改善,氨氮近两年的变化趋势不是很明显,总的来说,南部县燕子窝水源地以及五面山水源地的设置是科学、合理的.     

Development of a method to predict crash risk using trend analysis of driver behavior changes over time

Objective: This study aimed at identifying and predicting in advance the point in time with a high risk of a virtual accident before a virtual accident actually occurs using the change of behavioral measures and subjective rating on drowsiness over time and the trend analysis of each behavioral measure.

Methods: Behavioral measures such as neck bending angle and tracking error in steering maneuvering during the simulated driving task were recorded under the low arousal condition of all participants who stayed up all night without sleeping. The trend analysis of each evaluation measure was conducted using a single regression model where time and each measure of drowsiness corresponded to an independent variable and a dependent variable, respectively. Applying the trend analysis technique to the experimental data, we proposed a method to predict in advance the point in time with a high risk of a virtual accident (in a real-world driving environment, this corresponds to a crash) before the point in time when the participant would have encountered a crucial accident if he or she continued driving a vehicle (we call this the point in time of a virtual accident).

Results: On the basis of applying the proposed trend analysis method to behavioral measures, we found that the proposed approach could predict in advance the point in time with a high risk of a virtual accident before the point in time of a virtual accident.

Conclusion: The proposed method is a promising technique for predicting in advance the time zone with potentially high risk (probability) of being involved in an accident due to drowsy driving and for warning drivers of such a drowsy and risky state.     

气候变化下21世纪上海长江口地区降水变化趋势分析

近百年来,以全球变暖为主要特征的气候与环境发生了重大变化,在此条件下,气候变化对自然生态系统的影响越来越大,特别是对水资源的负面影响尤为明显,包括水资源数量、质量及其时空分布,水资源开发利用程度,供用水结构以及产水、供水、用水、耗水、排水之间的关系等。上海长江口地区是我国经济发展核心区,而南水北调东线工程实施后,长江口的流量,以及海水的入侵都会直接影响到上海的发展,因此未来百年该区域的降水量在气候变化影响下的变化趋势对区域发展有着一定的影响作用。利用IPCC 数据分发中心提供的CCCma模式的4种模拟结果,分析了在全球气候变化下,由于人类活动影响、温室气体增加等共同作用时,长江口地区未来50～100年的降水量变化情景。结果表明,降水量总的会呈现上升趋势,并且降水强度的变化也越来越明显。     

“十一五”河南省城市环境空气污染特征及原因分析

文章通过对平均综合污染指数,城市空气质量级别的变化对比分析,认为"十一五"期间河南省城市环境空气质量整体呈现改善的变化趋势。基于监测数据,从河南省城市主要污染物、污染特性空间分布、季节性污染特性等方面对环境空气污染特征进行了深入分析,并从污染负荷、气候影响、产业地域布局、产业结构调整、环境管理和污染防治措施等方面深入探讨了产生这种变化趋势和污染特征的内在原因。     

Site‐Occupancy Distribution Modeling to Correct Population‐Trend Estimates Derived from Opportunistic Observations

Abstract: Species’ assessments must frequently be derived from opportunistic observations made by volunteers (i.e., citizen scientists). Interpretation of the resulting data to estimate population trends is plagued with problems, including teasing apart genuine population trends from variations in observation effort. We devised a way to correct for annual variation in effort when estimating trends in occupancy (species distribution) from faunal or floral databases of opportunistic observations. First, for all surveyed sites, detection histories (i.e., strings of detection–nondetection records) are generated. Within‐season replicate surveys provide information on the detectability of an occupied site. Detectability directly represents observation effort; hence, estimating detectablity means correcting for observation effort. Second, site‐occupancy models are applied directly to the detection‐history data set (i.e., without aggregation by site and year) to estimate detectability and species distribution (occupancy, i.e., the true proportion of sites where a species occurs). Site‐occupancy models also provide unbiased estimators of components of distributional change (i.e., colonization and extinction rates). We illustrate our method with data from a large citizen‐science project in Switzerland in which field ornithologists record opportunistic observations. We analyzed data collected on four species: the widespread Kingfisher (Alcedo atthis) and Sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus) and the scarce Rock Thrush (Monticola saxatilis) and Wallcreeper (Tichodroma muraria). Our method requires that all observed species are recorded. Detectability was <1 and varied over the years. Simulations suggested some robustness, but we advocate recording complete species lists (checklists), rather than recording individual records of single species. The representation of observation effort with its effect on detectability provides a solution to the problem of differences in effort encountered when extracting trend information from haphazard observations. We expect our method is widely applicable for global biodiversity monitoring and modeling of species distributions.     

Global Major Progress and Trends in the Implementation of Agenda 21

This paper summarizes, from a global perspective, the major progress in the implementation of the Agenda 21 since the UN Conference on Environment and Development. The results show that global economy has achieved a substantial growth, and positive progress has been made in poverty eradication, urbanization, and conservation and intensive use of natural resources. However, relevant international conventions and commitments have not yet been completely fulfilled. The paper further analyzes the current major challenges and future trends of global sustainable development. It is argued that there are three major challenges:1) fatal global environmental issues posing an increasing threat to human survival; 2) more and more severe global competition for developing spaces; and 3) issues highlighting global people’s livelihood. There are four trends of global sustainable development:1) sustainable development will further turn from concept into global action; 2) green will be the main trend of global development; 3) emerging developing countries will become the main driving force of global sustainable development; and 4) international relations in the field of sustainable development will turn to competitive co-operation.     

东北北部地区地震活动与震后早期趋势判断

研究了 190 0年以来我国东北北部地区浅源中强震活动的特征。结果表明 ,地震活动具有突发性、成组性和序列地震数量少的特点。应根据本区地震活动特点 ,开展震后早期趋势预测 ,以最大限度地减轻地震灾害。