气候变化下21世纪上海长江口地区降水变化趋势分析

近百年来,以全球变暖为主要特征的气候与环境发生了重大变化,在此条件下,气候变化对自然生态系统的影响越来越大,特别是对水资源的负面影响尤为明显,包括水资源数量、质量及其时空分布,水资源开发利用程度,供用水结构以及产水、供水、用水、耗水、排水之间的关系等。上海长江口地区是我国经济发展核心区,而南水北调东线工程实施后,长江口的流量,以及海水的入侵都会直接影响到上海的发展,因此未来百年该区域的降水量在气候变化影响下的变化趋势对区域发展有着一定的影响作用。利用IPCC 数据分发中心提供的CCCma模式的4种模拟结果,分析了在全球气候变化下,由于人类活动影响、温室气体增加等共同作用时,长江口地区未来50～100年的降水量变化情景。结果表明,降水量总的会呈现上升趋势,并且降水强度的变化也越来越明显。     

Multiscale Analysis of Hydrology in a Mountaintop Mine‐Impacted Watershed

In the Appalachian region of the eastern United States, mountaintop removal mining (MTM) is a dominant driver of land‐cover change, impacting 6.8% of the largely forested 4.86 million ha coal fields region. Recent catastrophic flooding and documented biological impairment downstream of MTM has drawn sharp criticism to this practice. Despite its extent, scale, and use since the 1970s, the impact of MTM on hydrology is poorly understood. Therefore, the goal of this study was a multiscale evaluation to establish the nature of hydrologic impacts associated with MTM. To quantify the extent of MTM, land‐cover change over the lifetime of this practice is estimated for a mesoscale watershed in southern West Virginia. To assess hydrologic impacts, we conducted long‐term trend analyses to evaluate for systematic changes in hydrology at the mesoscale, and conducted hydrometric and response time modeling to characterize storm‐scale responses of a MTM‐impacted headwater catchment. Results show a general trend in the conversion of forests to mines, and significant decreases in maximum streamflow and variability, and increases in base‐flow ratio attributed to valley fills and deep mine drainage. Decreases in variability are shown across spatial and temporal scales having important implications for water quantity and quality. However, considerable research is necessary to understand how MTM impacts hydrology. In an effort to inform future research, we identify existing knowledge gaps and limitations of our study.     

锡林河流域生长季节不同草地类型根系呼吸特征研究

采用根系生物量外推法于2005年生长季对内蒙古锡林河流域温带半干旱草原中的羊草自由放牧草原、大针茅自由放牧草原和羊草退化草原根系呼吸占土壤总呼吸的比例进行了野外测定,研究了不同草地类型土壤总呼吸、根系呼吸和根系呼吸占土壤总呼吸比例的季节变化规律,同时就根系生物量和水热因子等环境要素对上述过程的影响进行了具体分析.结果表明,3个样地根系呼吸和土壤总呼吸的季节变化规律基本一致,均表现为单峰曲线,峰值出现在7月下旬,但羊草退化草原受过度放牧的影响,根系呼吸和土壤总呼吸速率均明显高于其它2个样地;根系呼吸占土壤总呼吸的比例在生长季节内波动明显,且3个样地差异较大,但大多介于40%～50%之间,平均值为40.3%.     

2015—2020年全国重污染天变化趋势及时空分布特征分析

2015—2020年,全国重污染发生天数、比例及城市数量整体呈逐年下降趋势。与2015年相比,2020年全国337个地级及以上城市重污染天数减少1 847 d,降幅达55.2%;重污染天数比例下降1.6个百分点;发生过重污染天气的城市数量减少60个。其中,全国细颗粒物重污染天数整体呈下降趋势,沙尘重污染天数随气象条件的差异波动变化,臭氧重污染天数呈波动上升趋势。"十四五"期间,消除重污染天气的主要对象仍是细颗粒物重污染。应将天山北坡城市群、"2+26"城市、汾渭平原及苏皖鲁豫交界地区作为"十四五"期间污染减排的重点关注区域。此外,需遏制"2+26"城市臭氧重污染上升势头。     

环境综合分析报告的发展趋势

对环境综合分析报告的特点和分类进行了阐述。指出目前的环境综合分析报告对环境监测成果的利用不够，对环境管理政策措施的了解不足，环境质量评价方法有待改进，环境综合分析手段有待提高。提出环境综合分析报告应由讲述型向解答型发展，由纯文本型向多媒体型发展，由专业型向通俗型发展，由定期型向实时型发展。     

2010—2016年上海城区臭氧长时间序列变化特征初探

基于2010—2016年上海城区近地面大气臭氧（O₃）的连续在线观测数据，研究了上海城区O₃长时间序列变化规律和污染特征.结果表明，近7年来上海城区O₃污染逐渐凸显，但总体以轻度污染为主，7—8月高温炎热季节以中度污染居多.城区O₃-8 h（臭氧日最大8 h滑动平均）年均增速为3.81 μg·m^-3·a^-1，99%和95%分位值增速较快，分别为6.65和4.94 μg·m^-3·a^-1；25%、50%和75%分位值的增速在3.06~4.45 μg·m^-3·a^-1之间.春季O₃浓度均值较高，年际变化小；夏季极值较高，且污染超标情况最为突出；秋季O₃浓度次于春、夏季，冬季最低；夏、秋和冬季O₃浓度总体呈上升态势.O₃日变化呈"单峰型"，最大值出现在13：00左右，且峰值逐年增加，污染持续时间变长，最小值出现在早晨7：00.城区O₃"周末效应"逐渐减弱.基于KZ过滤器方法的数据分析结果表明，上海城区O₃-8 h长期变化主要受O₃-BF（O₃-8 h的基准组分）影响；O₃-SF（O₃-8 h的天气影响组分）在5—9月对O₃-8 h影响较大，其范围为-98.85~139.60 μg·m^-3.     

Assessing conservation status with extensive but low-resolution data: Application of frequentist and Bayesian models to endangered Athabasca River rainbow trout

Use of extensive but low-resolution abundance data is common in the assessment of species at-risk status based on quantitative decline criteria under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and national endangered species legislation. Such data can be problematic for 3 reasons. First, statistical power to reject the null hypothesis of no change is often low because of small sample size and high sampling uncertainty leading to a high frequency of type II errors. Second, range-wide assessments composed of multiple site-specific observations do not effectively weight site-specific trends into global trends. Third, uncertainty in site-specific temporal trends and relative abundance are not propagated at the appropriate spatial scale. A common result is the propensity to underestimate the magnitude of declines and therefore fail to identify the appropriate at-risk status for a species. We used 3 statistical approaches, from simple to more complex, to estimate temporal decline rates for a designatable unit (DU) of rainbow trout in the Athabasca River watershed in western Canada. This DU is considered a native species for purposes of listing because of its genetic composition characterized as >0.95 indigenous origin in the face of continuing introgressive hybridization with introduced populations in the watershed. Analysis of abundance trends from 57 time series with a fixed-effects model identified 33 sites with negative trends, but only 2 were statistically significant. By contrast, a hierarchical linear mixed model weighted by site-specific abundance provided a DU-wide decline estimate of 16.4% per year and a 3-generation decline of 93.2%. A hierarchical Bayesian mixed model yielded a similar 3-generation decline trend of 91.3% and the posterior distribution showed that the estimate had a >99% probability of exceeding thresholds for an endangered listing. We conclude that the Bayesian approach was the most useful because it provided a probabilistic statement of threshold exceedance in support of an at-risk status recommendation.     

国产旋压设备的发展和应用

概述了国内旋压设备 30余年来的发展历程 ,指出了国产设备与发达国家的产品存在的差距 ,以及近年来国内旋压机床制造业取得的成绩。并结合国内外市场的需求 ,提出了旋压设备今后发展的方向