我国人口增长方式的转变与可持续发展

本文探讨了人口增长的不同方式对可持续发展的影响,分析了我国可持续发展中存在的人口障碍,并提出建议以促进我国人口增长方式向有利于可持续发展方向转变。     

社会资本和环境资本在可持续发展中的作用

本文分析了经济、社会、环境体系中社会资本与环境资本对经济的影响,用可持续发展观点修正了传统的经济增长理论。     

Assessing Land-Use Impacts on Natural Resources

/ Much information is available on changes that occur in natural resources from both spatially-explicit data on environmental conditions and models of the interactions of these conditions and resources with human activities. The strategy for assessing land-use impacts on natural resources developed in this paper provides a framework for using relevant data and models to address questions of how management practices can promote both use and protection of resources. This assessment strategy integrates spatially explicit environmental data using geographic information systems (GIS) with computer models that simulate changes in land cover in response to land-use impacts. The computer models also simulate susceptibility of species to changes in habitat suitability and landscape patterns. The approach is applied to management of limestone barrens on the Oak Ridge Reservation in East Tennessee. Potential limestone barrens habitats are identified by overlaying appropriate soils, geology, slope, and land-use/land-cover conditions. Their validity is tested against known sites containing rare species that occur in these habitats. The location of habitats at risk in the aftermath of human activities is determined by using an available area model that identifies the size and proximity of sites that particular types of species can no longer use as habitat. The resulting risk map can be used in land management planning. The approach uses readily available in situ and remotely sensed data and is applicable to a wide range of locations and land-use scenarios. This approach can be refined based on needs identified by land managers and on the sensitivity of the results to the resolution of available resource information.KEY WORDS: Land management; Assessment; Habitat characterization; Limestone barrens; Ecological modeling; Geographic information systems     

江苏省耕地面积变化与经济增长的协整性与因果关系分析

江苏省近年来随着社会经济的发展,耕地面积急剧减少,土地利用变化和经济增长二者关系更为明显和完整,具有极好的典型性和代表性。论文利用近20年来耕地面积、经济增长与城市化水平之间的长序列统计资料,对江苏省1981～2004年间的耕地面积与经济增长及城市化水平的协整性和因果关系进行了研究。研究表明:耕地面积、GDP与城市化水平均是不平稳的时间序列,直接对其进行回归分析是不严谨的;江苏省耕地面积变化与经济增长之间不具有长期的协整性;江苏省耕地面积与GDP、城市化水平之间只存在单向的因果关系。通过研究,认为目前的土地利用方式极不合理。因此,降低耕地减少速度,提高土地利用效率是非常紧迫的战略问题。     

Interpreting sustainable development

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苏州市经济发展与环境污染耦合关系的实证研究

选取苏州市1990-2004年经济与环境数据, 通过分析经济因子与环境因子相互关系,探究苏州市经济增长与环境质量演替轨迹,建立经济增长与环境污染水平计量模型.根据模型结果分析了苏州市环境库兹涅茨曲线的特征及产生的原因,并提出了相应的改进建议.实证研究表明,苏州市部分环境指标与人均GDP演替轨迹呈现一定的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征,但大部分环境指标尚未达到转折点.产生这种现象的主要原因是产业结构的不合理.     

Effects of biofilm growth on flow and transport through a glass parallel plate fracture

The effects of biofilm growth on flow and solute transport through a sandblasted glass parallel plate fracture was investigated. The fracture was inoculated using soil microorganisms. Glucose, oxygen and other nutrients were supplied to support growth. The biomass initially formed discrete clusters attached to the glass surfaces, but over time formed a continuous biofilm. From dye tracer tests conducted during biofilm growth, it was observed that channels and low-permeability zones dominated transport. The hydraulic conductivity of the fracture showed a sigmoidal decrease with time. The hydraulic conductivity was reduced by a factor of 0.033, from 18 to 0.6 cm/s, corresponding to a 72% decrease in the hydraulic aperture, from 500 to 140 microm. In contrast, the mass balance aperture, determined from fluoride tracer tests, remained relatively constant, indicating that the impact of biomass growth on effective fracture porosity was much less than the effect on hydraulic conductivity. Analyses of pre-biofilm tracer tests revealed that both Taylor dispersion and macrodispersion were influencing transport. During biofilm growth, only macrodispersion was dominant. The macrodispersion coefficient alpha(macro) was found to increase logarithmically with hydraulic conductivity reduction.     

污泥超高温堆肥过程中DOM结构的光谱分析

为了明确超高温堆肥新工艺在促进腐殖化进程中的优势,采用三维荧光光谱(3D-EEM)等光谱学方法研究了污泥超高温堆肥过程中DOM的结构特征及其变化规律.结果表明,堆体≥80℃的超高温阶段持续5 d(最高温度90℃),50℃以上高温阶段达到22 d,反映了堆肥过程中强烈的微生物代谢活性.E253/E203、SUVA280、S275~295等9个紫外-可见光光谱(UV-Vis)指标在0~23 d变化显著,指出DOM的芳香化和堆肥腐殖化程度逐渐增强.3D-EEM光谱结合荧光区域体积积分技术(FRI)分析指出,DOM中蛋白类物质在超高温堆肥过程的0~6 d几乎完全被降解;腐殖酸和富里酸类物质在0~23 d大量形成,堆肥在高温阶段达到完全腐熟,这与种子发芽指数(GI)在23 d所指示的腐熟度评价结果(98.5%)一致.基于多种光谱学指标的相关性分析,PⅤ,n/PⅢ,n与其它光谱学均呈现较好的相关性(r≥0.68),可以作为评价超高温堆肥腐熟度的光谱学指标.上述结果证实了超高温堆肥工艺可加快堆肥腐熟进程、缩短堆肥周期至20 d左右,在有机固废资源化领域具有极大的应用潜力.     

综合生态安全格局构建与城市扩张模拟的城市增长边界划定——以天水市规划区（2015—2030年）为例

传统的城市增长边界划定方法,一般仅考虑生态安全格局,并未考虑在现有客观条件下的城市扩张趋势,划定结果具有一定的主观性;或仅对城市的扩张进行模拟,忽略了城市的生态安全问题。针对上述问题,论文通过耦合城市综合生态安全格局与基于CA_Markov模型的城市扩张模拟结果,提出了一种新的城市增长边界划定方法:首先,合理选取因子构建研究区的综合生态安全格局,利用禁建区对综合生态安全格局的结果进行修正,获得研究区的刚性增长边界;其次,合理选取城市扩张驱动因子,通过CA_Markov模型预测城市扩张边界;最后,综合考虑刚性增长边界、模拟获得的城市扩张边界及近期城市拓展方案等,获得最终的城市增长边界。并以天水市规划区（2015—2030）为案例,对方法的科学性进行了说明。结果表明,论文划定的城市增长边界内总面积370.56 km²,占规划区总面积的7.7%。此方法能够有效解决城市增长与生态保护之间的矛盾,对河谷型城市等建设用地匮乏、生态环境脆弱城市的增长边界划定具有良好的应用价值,也可为其他类型城市的城市增长边界划定提供参考。     

环境治理投入对经济增长的异质性影响研究——基于城市化的视角

在城市化水平不断提高的背景下,探究环境治理投入促进还是阻碍了经济增长,城市化在两者关系中扮演什么角色具有重要的现实意义。论文基于中国大陆2003—2015年31个省份的数据,运用面板门槛模型、系统广义矩估计方法探究环境治理投入与经济增长之间的关系。结果表明：1）环境治理投入与经济增长之间存在参数异质性,具有显著的门槛效应;2）环境治理投入对省际经济增长的影响因环境治理投入量的差异分为前期影响不显著、后期促进两个阶段;3）适度的城市化水平可以提高环境治理投入的效率,从而促进经济增长。基于此,论文认为应在继续增加环境治理投入的同时提高城市化水平,以城市化助力环境治理投入取得环境和经济效益的双赢。