资源环境对南京市经济发展的“增长阻尼”

由于土地与其他自然资源的限制,经济增长速度相比没有限制情况下降低的现象,即为资源对经济增长的阻尼效应。本文将土地资源与生态环境影响因素合并,利用生态足迹模型解释资源环境复合要素,对传统的阻尼模型进行修正,定量测算资源环境对南京市经济发展的增长阻尼。结果表明,南京市经济发展迅速,土地资源和生态环境对经济发展产生了较为明显的制约作用,其对经济发展的增长阻尼为0.03611。充分发挥资本对资源环境的替代作用,合理利用土地资源,优化产业结构,降低人口的增长率是实现南京市经济可持续发展的基本途径。     

An International Comparative Analysis on China's Economic Growth and the Convergence in Energy Intensity Gap and Its Economic Mechanism

In this paper,the authors have empirically analyzed the convergence in per capita GDP gap and the convergence in the variation of energy intensity with respect to the change of per capita GDP between China and eight developed countries.Then,the authors run a regression on the impact of decisive factors of economic growth on energy intensity and its change,so as to find out the economic mechanism of energy intensity gap changing with respect to the variation of economic growth.This study concludes that:First,there is a convergence in per capita GDP gap between China and the eight developed countries.With the convergence in per capita GDP gap,the energy intensity gap between China and eight different countries also converge,and the convergence rate of the latter is faster than that of the former,i.e.if the per capita GDP gap between China and the eight developed countries decreases by 1%,the energy intensity gap between them will correspondingly decrease by 1.552%.Second,the energy intensity decreases with the improvement of industrial structure,the rising of energy prices,the advances of technology,and the expansion of investment in fixed assets,and it slightly increases with the increase of FDI.Third,the energy intensity gap between China and eight developed countries narrows with the lessening of the difference in fixed assets investment,energy prices,and technological progress between China and eight developed countries,yet increases with the narrowing of the difference in FDI,and has no significant correlation with the difference in industrial structure.Fourth,the narrowing of difference in per capita GDP between China and the eight developed countries can result in the lessening of energy intensity gap,whose economic mechanism is that the decisive factors,such as difference in investment,technology,and the competition mechanism of prices,which can determine the difference in economic growth,can significantly affect the energy intensity gap.     

双季超级稻的生长与光合特性研究

分别以金优402和黄华占为对照,研究了超级稻早稻株两优819和晚稻丰源优299的生长及光合特性。株两优819分蘖数低于对照,但成穗率较高,最终形成较高的有效穗数,叶面积指数和生物量累积速率在前期高于对照,但在后期低于对照。整个生育期的单叶净光合速率与对照无显著差异,灌浆期叶绿素荧光参数与对照无显著差异。丰源优299分蘖数和有效分蘖低于对照,但一直保持叶面积指数的较大优势,生长中后期的光合速率显著高于对照,所以生物量较高。在灌浆期,在最小荧光Fo、最大荧光Fm和最大量子效率Fv/Fm方面,丰源优299与对照均无显著差异,而在光下即时荧光Ft、光下最大荧光Fm′、实际量子效率Fv′/Fm′、表观光合电子传递速率ETR、光化学猝灭系数qP和非光化学猝灭系数NPQ等方面丰源优299高于对照。株两优819和丰源优299均表现出高产特性,分别比对照产量高出1629%和544%,但其高产机理有所不同。前期较高的生物量积累和后期较高的光合产物运转效率是早稻株两优819高产的主要原因,而中后期较高的光合能力以及高收获指数是晚稻丰源优299高产的主要原因     

中国经济增长与耕地资源数量变化阶段性特征研究——协整分析及Granger因果检验

利用Eviews 6.0软件,基于协整分析与Granger因果关系检验方法,探讨经济增长和耕地资源数量变化的相互关系和相互作用,以协调耕地保护和经济发展的矛盾。研究结果表明,不同经济增长阶段,我国耕地资源数量变化与经济增长存在长期均衡关系;自1952年以来,我国经济增长和耕地资源数量变化经历了3个阶段,具体表现为:(1)互为因果(1952～1978年),这一阶段农业在国民经济中具有重要地位,耕地的产出在经济增长中占据较大的份额;(2)前者是后者的Granger原因(1978～1992年),此阶段耕地资源投入量顺应了经济增长的要求,发挥了自己应有的作用;(3)后者是前者的Granger原因(1992～2008年),耕地资源作为要素投入支撑了经济的低质量增长,由此产生了重复建设、土地低效利用等问题。因此,关注经济增长和耕地资源数量变化在不同经济发展阶段的均衡关系,发现其中的规律,掌握其中的因果变化趋势,适时调整土地政策以适应经济增长的要求是亟待解决的战略问题。     

中国碳排放与经济增长的协整与因果关系分析

中国碳排放与经济增长的关系是目前热点问题。研究碳排放与经济增长关系有助于实现中国2020年碳减排目标。选取1953～2008年中国碳排放量和经济增长数据,运用协整和误差修正模型及Granger因果关系,研究碳排放与经济增长关系。研究结果表明：从长期来看,碳排放与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系(协整关系),GDP增加1%,碳排放将增加036%,即碳排放对经济增长的长期弹性为036;在短期内,两者存在着动态调整机制,非均衡误差项的存在,保证了两者之间长期均衡关系的存在。误差修正系数(-0669 4)为负,调整方向符合误差修正机制,并且误差修正模型的拟合效果比较理想。Granger因果关系研究表明：总体来说,碳排放与经济增长之间互为双向因果关系。针对研究结果,提出了“发展低碳经济、提高能源效率和发展非化石能源”的策略,减少能源消费和降低碳排放,实现碳排放与经济增长的相对脱钩     

四川城市对称性空间结构研究

城市空间分布规律的研究一直是城市规划者和地理学家研究的热点。早期关于城市空间分布的理论有克里斯泰勒的中心地理论、廖什网络结构理论等,现在研究较热的是基于人类空间行为自组织演化的分形理论。我国著名地学家叶大年先生于2001年提出我国城市分布对称的思想,并将其系统整理为关于城市分布对称的学术思想。成渝经济区的崛起,为四川省城市空间结构的优化带来了重要的契机。依据叶大年先生的城市分布对称理论,认为四川主要城市在地质构造等自然地理要素的影响下对称分布明显,且盆西平原城市在天然水系特征和陆路交通干线共同影响下呈格子状分布。针对当前四川省主要城市空间结构发育的不成熟,对成渝经济区影响下的四川城市空间分布形态重新进行空间构建,首次提出关于四川城市空间结构的“钻石模型”。分析表明,此模型能够较好地解释当前川内城市的空间分布及演化趋势;同时也在一定程度上说明城市分布对称的思想具有一定的理论价值和实践价值,值得学者引起重视     

1980--2009年中国经济增长对化石能源消耗的依赖关系

随着中国经济的发展,我国高化石能源消耗问题也越来越突出。计算了1980--2009年中国人均化石能源足迹,并将其与人均GDP联系起来进行研究,发现在这30年中我国人均化石能源消耗和人均GDP都呈现逐步增长趋势,在用E—G两步法进行协整检验的过程中发现两者存在长期稳定的均衡关系;采用格兰杰因果检验进行进一步的验证分析发现,我国人均化石能源足迹和人均GDP之间互为因果关系,进一步说明我国经济发展对能源消耗尤其是化石能源消耗具有依赖性,且经济发展会进一步刺激化石能源使用的增加。因此,采取节能降耗措施应从调整产业结构和能源消费结构入手,在降低能耗期间我国会出现经济增长放缓的现象。     

外场可靠性试验技术方法研究

介绍了外场可靠性试验的特点,概括总结了进行外场装备可靠性评价时应注意的几个方面。针对外场任务和系统级可靠性试验都属于可修复系统,重点分析了设备级以上可靠性数据处理方法,提出建立R.M.S数据库时应考虑的两个因素,即与寿命有关的可靠性增长分析以及DT和OT数据的合并,指出今后应建立适合外场数据特点的实用模型和方法,从而获得更准确的可靠性数据。     

The ecological traces of growth: economic growth,liberalization, increased consumption—and sustainable urban development?

Using the development of the building stock and physical infrastructure as an example, this article highlights the difficulties in combining continuous economic growth in wealthy countries with the requirements of environmentally sustainable development. There are clear limits as to how far we can get by means of ‘eco-efficiency’, and the effect of a transition to less environmentally harmful types of consumption is not sufficient if the consumption volume keeps on increasing. This is particularly evident for societal processes such as the construction of buildings and the development of physical infrastructure. Increased consumption is both a result of and a precondition for economic growth. The development of the building stock and physical infrastructure in cities is a case showing that economic growth—at any rate, in the longer term—can hardly be consistent with the preservation of species, ecosystems and food-production resources. The growth in the building stock also makes it increasingly difficult to limit energy use and reduce carbon–dioxide emissions. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

In situ phytoremediation of arsenic- and metal-polluted pyrite waste with field crops: effects of soil management

Sunflower, alfalfa, fodder radish and Italian ryegrass were cultivated in severely As-Cd-Co-Cu-Pb-Zn-contaminated pyrite waste discharged in the past and capped with 0.15 m of unpolluted soil at Torviscosa (Italy). Plant growth and trace element uptake were compared under ploughing and subsoiling tillages (0.3 m depth), the former yielding higher contamination (∼30%) in top soil.Tillage choice was not critical for phytoextraction, but subsoiling enhanced above-ground productivity, whereas ploughing increased trace element concentrations in plants. Fodder radish and sunflower had the greatest aerial biomass, and fodder radish the best trace element uptake, perhaps due to its lower root sensitivity to pollution. Above-ground removals were generally poor (maximum of 33 mg m⁻² of various trace elements), with Zn (62%) and Cu (18%) as main harvested contaminants. The most significant finding was of fine roots proliferation in shallow layers that represented a huge sink for trace element phytostabilisation.It is concluded that phytoextraction is generally far from being an efficient management option in pyrite waste. Sustainable remediation requires significant improvements of the vegetation cover to stabilise the site mechanically and chemically, and provide precise quantification of root turnover.