景区建设对区域经济发展的响应格局演变——以江苏省为例

论文以江苏省为例,构建旅游景区建设对区域经济发展的响应指数,在研究景区格局演变的基础上,运用空间变差函数分析响应的空间差异,并探讨了景区建设对区域经济发展响应的空间格局、演变过程,结果表明：江苏省旅游景区分布呈现出南多北少的格局,内部差异巨大;高响应区域单元数量明显增加,且主要分布在长江沿岸地区;响应格局在全方向上的均质性较好,但在各个方向上的差异切换较快。根据响应指数的差异和经济发展水平的不同,将所有单元划分为6 种类型。在上述分析的基础上,将影响因素分为表征层面的影响因素和内在层面的影响因素,并分析了各个因素的作用机制,据此提出不同类型单元的调控措施。     

土层地震反应分析的地面加速度峰值计算研究

针对不同的工程场地采用20组相互独立的基岩加速度时程作为输入地震波,对广东省307个项目的地震安全性评价中的662个地震钻孔剖面进行土层地震反应分析,用相对均方误差来定量评估所得到的地面加速度峰值离散值,发现地面加速度峰值的计算结果具有很大的离散性,最大相对均方误差为19%,平均相对均方误差为7.53%;地震基本烈度高的地区比地震基本烈度低的地区的相对均方误差大,场地类别差的比场地类别好的相对均方误差大;目前较为普遍地用1条或3条基岩加速度时程作为地震动输入是明显不够的,应适当地增加,对于高烈度地区和场地类别较差的场地更是如此,才能得到较为合理的地面加速度峰值。     

面向核应急响应的S-BOX集成模型

核事故引发的应急任务往往需要集成多个部门应急资源和能力来协同响应。这些海量核应急信息、知识汇聚于网络,其固有异构性限制了跨部门核应急集成的能力。为解决此问题,基于语义X列表理论提出核应急集成框架;以“事件-任务-资源”为主线构建本体结构列表和集成推理规则;给出假定核事故场景和资源、任务信息,搭建S-BOX模型和响应决策推理实验,验证了本方法可有效表达异构核应急信息与知识,实现按需集成。     

基于两种耦合方法的模拟-优化模型在地下水污染源识别中的对比

采用一种基于模拟-优化模型的方法对地下水污染源进行识别研究.模拟-优化模型分别采用响应矩阵法和状态转移方程法进行耦合,并利用遗传算法求解,经过多次迭代,使得模拟结果与观测数据的误差达到最小.最后,通过一个假想例子评估模拟-优化模型的性能,同时比较应用不同耦合方法的计算结果.研究表明:应用响应矩阵法耦合模拟-优化模型所得结果的绝对误差范围为0.1~1.6g/L,应用状态转移方程法时,绝对误差范围为0~5.2g/L,因此,采用遗传算法求解模拟-优化模型能够有效且准确地得到地下水污染源的释放量,可以应用于地下水污染源识别问题,并且采用响应矩阵法耦合模拟-优化模型优于状态转移方程法.     

西苕溪流域径流对土地利用变化的空间响应分析

针对流域土地利用变化所引起的径流空间变异问题,论文以太湖上游西苕溪流域为例,基于SWAT模型（Soil and Water Assessment Tool）模拟的不同土地利用情景下月尺度径流过程,通过GWR模型（Geographically weighted regression）在空间上定量评估了土地利用/覆被变化对流域径流过程的影响。结果表明：径流变化在流域空间分布上存在一定非平稳性,其与子流域内面积变化较大的土地利用类型相关性显著,其中城镇用地影响最大,林草地和耕地影响次之。径流变化对城镇用地的空间响应关系表现为由上游到下游逐渐增强,而对林草地和耕地的响应关系表现为从流域上游到下游逐渐减弱。对比发现,多因子GWR模型相对于单因子GWR模型更适合综合分析径流对土地利用/覆被变化的空间响应关系。     

Compliance with recommended protective actions during an H7N9 emergency: a risk perception perspective

This study investigates the factors determining an individual's response to official recommended protective measures, based on the Health Belief Model and the Protective Action Decision Model, to understand the adoption of protective behaviour during an H7N9 (Avian Influenza A) emergency. A public survey involving 1,375 respondents was conducted in Anhui Province, China, during the 2013 H7N9 outbreak to test the research model and hypotheses. The results indicate that protective, stakeholder, and risk perceptions influence positively an individual's willingness to take recommended actions. Protective and stakeholder perceptions also have a positive bearing on lay people's risk perceptions. A stakeholder perception is a vital determinant of a protective perception. More importantly, the effects of protective and stakeholder perceptions on behavioural responses to recommendations are mediated in part by risk perception. These findings can help public health officials to develop messages to encourage members of the population to protect themselves effectively during an influenza crisis.     

Remittances as aid following major sudden‐onset natural disasters

There is a general assumption, based on macroeconomic studies, that remittances will rise following major sudden‐onset natural disasters. This is confirmed by a few assessments involving country‐specific research, and usually short‐term data. This study, questioning conventional wisdom, reviewed and graphed annual and quarterly remittance flows using International Monetary Fund and World Bank data from 2000–14 for 12 countries that confronted 18 major natural disasters. It found that, regardless of event type, annual remittances rose steadily from 2000–14 except for after the 2008–09 financial crisis. Post disaster, there was a quarterly increase in the majority of cases (confirming previous research) but there was seldom an annual increase in the year of the disaster greater than the average annual increase in 2000–14. It appears that remittance senders rush to provide assistance after a natural disaster, but since their own financial situation has not changed, the immediate increase is compensated by a later decrease.     

Medical aspects of volcanic disasters: An outline of the hazards and emergency response measures

The health and safety hazards posed by volcanic eruptions are outlined with special reference to experience gained from the eruptions of Mount St. Helens in 1980. The ability of volcanologists to predict the timing and the impact on local communities of an impending eruption are limited, some recent devastating eruptions having occurred without apparent warning. With the expansion of world populations into hazardous volcanic areas there is a growing need to develop appropriate emergency response measures. This paper describes the main preventive public and occupational health measures that are now a necessary part in dealing with volcanic emergencies.     

基于光纤光栅的斜拉索振动参数监测实验研究

斜拉索是斜拉桥的主要受力构件 ,对其动力特性进行监测具有重要意义。斜拉索工作条件恶劣 ,现有的测试方法难以实现长期在线监测 ,实现斜拉索的振动在线测量 ,传感器是问题的关键。光纤光栅传感器具有极其优良的稳定性 ,已被证实适用于长期监测 ,在结构监测领域具有非常广泛的应用前景。笔者提出了一种基于光纤光栅传感器的斜拉索动力特性在线监测方法 ,建立了用光纤布拉格光栅作传感器监测斜拉索振动的测量模型 ,为验证该模型建立了模拟试验装置 ,在实验室进行了模拟实验研究 ,并将光纤光栅和传统的电阻应变片两种测量方法进行了实验对比。与传统测试手段相比 ,该方法结构简单 ,成本低 ,并能实现斜拉索动力特性的长期在线监测。     

薄膜结构在动风荷载下的安全性能分析

从理论和实践两方面对薄膜结构在风荷载下的安全性能进行了研究。根据随机过程理论 ,用计算机模拟生成具有空间相关性的风场。发展建立了膜结构几何非线性动力响应问题的有限元公式 ,并以此为基础对一具体的膜结构进行了动力时程响应分析。通过观察膜结构在不同风速下的位移时程曲线 ,笔者发现 :当外界风速小于一定的临界风速时 ,结构的位移响应会逐渐趋于稳态 ,结构的振动逐渐趋于稳定 ,这时结构是安全的 ;当外界风速超过或接近临界风速时 ,结构的振幅会逐渐增大 ,膜结构将可能发生驰振损坏。进而提出了通过增大膜内预应力或提高膜曲面的曲率来防止膜结构风振破坏的方法 ,并指出了在设计和施工中为保证膜结构的风振安全应当采取的措施。