藻细胞膜电信号对重金属的快速反应研究

为探讨藻细胞膜电信号对重金属离子的响应特征,运用细胞外表面技术和电化学方法研究了淡水藻——大型轮藻(Nitellaflexilis)藻细胞膜电位和膜电阻对汞、镉、铅的快速反应.结果表明,细胞膜电位和膜电阻对汞、镉响应灵敏且快速,30min内即对1μmol·L-1Hg2+、Cd2+表现出超极化和膜电阻增大反应,而5、10μmol·L-1Hg2+、Cd2+则在15min内引起细胞去极化、膜电阻减小,且剂量效应显著.细胞膜电信号对Pb2+的响应浓度为100μmol·L-1,30min内细胞先去极化后超极化,膜电阻持续增大.重金属作用前后相比,高浓度Hg2+、Cd2+(5、10μmol·L-1)导致藻细胞不可逆损伤,而其低浓度所致的损伤可恢复.Pb2+致藻细胞不可逆损伤的最低浓度为500μmol·L-1.对比膜电信号对3种离子的响应特点,发现藻细胞膜电位和膜电阻对Hg2+和Cd2+的响应灵敏度大于Pb2+.     

高校突发事件应急救援志愿者救援模式研究

为有效应对高校突发事件,迅速开展应急救援,通过理论分析、数学建模及现场实验法研究应急救援志愿者救援能力,构建以学生为第1响应人的高校突发事件应急救援模式.结果表明:基于理论与实验方法建立的应急救援队伍能够实现有效应急救援,具有现实可行性,可为高校应急救援志愿者队伍建设提供理论依据.     

Climate Impact Response Functions for Terrestrial Ecosystems

We introduce climate impact response functions as a means for summarizing and visualizing the responses of climate-sensitive sectors to changes in fundamental drivers of global climate change. In an inverse application, they allow the translation of thresholds for climate change impacts (‘impact guard-rails’) into constraints for climate and atmospheric composition parameters (‘climate windows’). It thus becomes feasible to specify long-term objectives for climate protection with respect to the impacts of climate change instead of crude proxy variables, like the change in global mean temperature. We apply the method to assess impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, using the threat to protected areas as the central impact indicator. Future climate states are characterized by geographically and seasonally explicit climate change patterns for temperature, precipitation and cloud cover, and by their atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The patterns are based on the results of coupled general circulation models. We study the sensitivity of the impact indicators and the corresponding climate windows to the spatial coverage of the analysis and to different climate change projections. This enables us to identify the most sensitive biomes and regions, and to determine those factors which significantly influence the results of the impact assessment. Based on the analysis, we conclude that climate impact response functions are a valuable means for the representation of climate change impacts across a wide range of plausible futures. They are particularly useful in integrated assessment models of climate change based on optimizing or inverse approaches where the on-line simulation of climate impacts by sophisticated impact models is infeasible due to their high computational demand. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Spatial Economic–Hydroecological Modelling and Evaluation of Land Use Impacts in the Vecht Wetlands Area

Wetlands provide many important goods and services to human societies, and generate nonuse values as well. Wetlands are also very sensitive ecosystems that are subject to much stress from human activities. Reducing the stress on wetlands requires a spatial matching between physical planning, hydrological and ecological processes, and economic activities. Spatially integrated modelling and evaluation can support this. The present study has developed a triple layer model that integrates information and concepts from social and natural sciences to address the analysis and evaluation of land-use scenarios for a wetlands area in the Netherlands, the Vecht area. This is the floodplain of river Vecht, located in the centre of the Netherlands. The study has resulted in a set of linked spatial hydrological, ecological and economic models, formulated at the level of grids and polders. The main activities incorporated in the system of models are housing, infrastructure, agriculture, recreation and nature conservation. The formulation of alternative development scenarios is dominated by land use and land cover options that are consistent with the stimulation of agriculture, nature or recreation. Two aggregate performance indicators have been constructed from model output, namely net present value of changes and environmental quality. The spatial characteristics of these indicators are retained in a spatial evaluation that ranks scenarios.     

抚仙湖梁王河流域农业耕作与流域水质响应关系研究

以抚仙湖北岸梁王河流域为研究对象,选取流域中2种典型耕作方式水稻-小麦（R-W）轮作和烤烟-豌豆（T-P）轮作的农田.通过对农田地下水和梁王河水的同步观测及农田耕作情况的调查,发现移栽、施底肥、追肥及排水等耕作措施使地下水中TP、PO^3-₄-P、TN、NO^-₃-N和NH⁺₄-N含量在短时间尺度内有明显升高.农田作物在不同生育期对养分的吸收规律与地下水中的TP、PO^3-₄-P、TN、NO^-₃-N和NH⁺₄-N含量在长时间尺度上响应关系明显,作物处于对相应养分吸收高峰期时地下水中该养分含量就会明显降低,反之则会升高.梁王河水TP和PO^3-₄-P的含量在流域农田全处于耕作期时要比流域部分农田处于休闲期分别低5.8%和21.7%,而TN、NH⁺₄-N及NO^-₃-N含量在流域农田全处于耕作期要比流域部分农田处于休闲期分别高11.5%、242.6%和9.55%.     

响应面法优化铝灰中氮化铝脱除工艺

为了优化二次铝灰中AlN氧化焙烧脱除工艺,基于响应面法建立了焙烧温度、焙烧时间、铝灰粒径等工艺参数与AlN脱除率之间的数学模型,并进行了方差分析,对铝灰中AlN的脱除工艺参数进行了优化设计.结果表明,所建立的回归模型能够准确预测AlN脱除率,预测值与实验值误差为0.93％.经优化设计得到铝灰中AlN的最佳脱除工艺参数为...     

The puzzle of North America's Late Pleistocene megafaunal extinction patterns: Test of new explanation yields unexpected results

Although Late Pleistocene extinctions disproportionately affected larger mammalian species, numerous smaller species were also lost. To date, no satisfactory explanation has been presented to account for this pattern. Beginning with the assumption that human predation caused the extinctions, we offer and test the first such explanatory hypothesis, which is predicated on considering more realistic functional response forms (i.e., those that allow for predator interference or prey sharing). We then test the hypothesis via a one-predator, six-prey ecological model that maintains transparency, minimalism of design, and maximal constraint of parameters. Results indicate that altering assumptions about one cornerstone of ecological modeling (i.e., functional response) fails to produce qualitative differences in survival–extinction outcomes—even in conjunction with a wide range of capture efficiency permutations. This unexpected finding suggests that no reasonable form of predation alone is capable of producing the survival–extinction pattern observed. We conclude that the matter of causation and the conclusions of previous Late Pleistocene extinction models remain far less certain than many have assumed.     

A Quantitative Method for Estimating Probable Public Costs of Hurricanes

/ A method is presented for estimating probable public costs resulting from damage caused by hurricanes, measured as local government expenditures approved for reimbursement under the Stafford Act Section 406 Public Assistance Program. The method employs a multivariate model developed through multiple regression analysis of an array of independent variables that measure meteorological, socioeconomic, and physical conditions related to the landfall of hurricanes within a local government jurisdiction. From the regression analysis we chose a log-log (base 10) model that explains 74% of the variance in the expenditure data using population and wind speed as predictors. We illustrate application of the method for a local jurisdiction-Lee County, Florida, USA. The results show that potential public costs range from $4.7 million for a category 1 hurricane with winds of 137 kilometers per hour (85 miles per hour) to $130 million for a category 5 hurricane with winds of 265 kilometers per hour (165 miles per hour). Based on these figures, we estimate expected annual public costs of $2.3 million. These cost estimates: (1) provide useful guidance for anticipating the magnitude of the federal, state, and local expenditures that would be required for the array of possible hurricanes that could affect that jurisdiction; (2) allow policy makers to assess the implications of alternative federal and state policies for providing public assistance to jurisdictions that experience hurricane damage; and (3) provide information needed to develop a contingency fund or other financial mechanism for assuring that the community has sufficient funds available to meet its obligations. KEY WORDS: Hurricane; Public costs; Local government; Disaster recovery; Disaster response; Florida; Stafford Act     

Participative multi-actor safety screening of infrastructures

Infrastructure planning very often underestimates safety issues in the early design phase. The reason for this is not necessarily the overwhelming importance of other aspects, such as functionality and economic considerations. Rather, the controversial views on safety held by different safety experts accounts for the major reason for not attributing safety the importance it deserves. In this paper we propose a seven-step methodology that allows multiple decision makers to evaluate infrastructure alternatives using safety and other indicators in early project phases. The methodology is based on analytic risk assessments, where the decision makers are asked to make ordinal tradeoffs among different safety, economic, and subjective aspects. The methodology allows multiple decision makers to aggregate preferences for different alternatives evaluated by different decision makers in a participative fashion. The proposed methodology was implemented in the Multimedia Group Decision Support Room at Delft University of Technology. The methodology was validated using real decision makers to show its realism and potential for participative decision making in safety planning.     

玄武岩砖红壤磷肥活化效果及其机理研究

应用不同活化剂处理不同性质的磷肥,并对其在玄武岩砖红壤中的生物效应及作用机理进行了研究.结果显示在玄武岩砖红壤上,活化剂处理磷肥均能显著提高蔬菜生物量,其中对磷矿粉无机活化剂处理后的生物效应最大;对磷铵则是有机2号活化剂的生物效应最大.玄武岩砖红壤中的铁、锰与磷素有效性关系密切,且在还原条件下的土壤锰对磷的固定作用更大;硅可促进土壤中磷的释放;供试活化剂不仅可促进难溶磷的释放,还可控释水溶性磷,使土壤供磷性能平稳.在体系中,活化剂对磷的促释和控释机理在于通过对土壤铁、锰、铝含量的调节而实现对磷的活化.