城市地震时人的心理反应与应急对策

本文运用社会心理学、社会行为学与地震社会学的原理,分析研究城市地震灾害发生时,人们的心理行为反应特征以及制约震时人们心理行为反应的主客观因素,在此基础上提出震时人们应采取的应急对策。     

From Policy to Practice: Challenges in Infant Feeding in Emergencies During the Balkan Crisis

The preparation and dissemination of policy statements are necessary but insufficient to prevent the inappropriate use of infant-feeding products in emergencies. The widespread failure of humanitarian agencies operating in the Balkan crisis to act in accordance with international policies and recommendations provides a recent example of the failure to translate infant-feeding policies into practice. This article explores the underlying reasons behind the failures which include: (1) the weak institutionalisation of policies; (2) the massive quantities of unsolicited donations of infant-feeding products: (3) the absence of monitoring systems; (4) inadequate co-ordination mechanisms; (5) the high costs of correcting mistakes; and (6) the cumulative effects of poor practice. Efforts to uphold best practice during the crisis are also documented. Finally, the article identifies actions that could be undertaken in advance of and during future emergencies to enhance the application of infant feeding policies in emergencies.     

微生物絮凝剂XM09活性成分分析及应用

从活性污泥中筛选出一株絮凝剂高产菌酱油曲霉M09,研究其所产絮凝剂的性质及处理实际废水的效果.结果发现,该絮凝剂XM09是M09分泌至细胞外的代谢产物,是富含羟基和羧基官能团的多糖类物质.以淀粉废水作为测试废水,采用SAS软件进行影响絮凝活性因素的响应面分析,获得了模拟程度较好的回归模型,进而得到最优的絮凝条件方案:M...     

无锡太湖水源地藻类爆发应急管理与处置体系研究

本文通过对太湖蓝藻爆发事件的分析,揭示了我国水源地藻类爆发应急管理和处置体系存在预警、预案机制不完善,监测机制与预警机制脱节,公众信息系统不健全、公开透明程度欠缺等不足,并设计出一套水源地藻类爆发应急处理体系,包括监测检测、应急处理、长效治理和管理体系,以应对该类事件的再次发生。     

消防站责任区划分的优化和仿真方法

分析消防站的责任区划分,提出划分优化问题的数学规划模型,以最小化平均反应时间为优化目标,建立基于历史数据的期望反应时间和期望服务时间的计算方法。用Arena软件开发了评价消防系统绩效(主要是反应时间)的仿真模型,比较实施新的责任区划分策略前后的差异。仿真分析验证了优化结果,表明消防系统的性能在新的划分策略实施后得到明显改善。     

浦东新区市政公用行业突发事件应急机制研究

研究浦东新区市政公用行业突发事件的应急机制,探讨实现从单向防控向综合治理、危机管理转变的依据。通过调研,对浦东新区道路、桥梁、燃气、电力和电信等市政公用行业的现状、突发事件的应急预案、等级划分、应急管理组织体系和应急机制等进行实证研究。研究表明,浦东新区市政公用行业突发事件管理行政上属于新区政府的范畴,同时,各行业也有相应的行业主管部门。属地管理,条块结合是我国市政公用行业突发事件管理现状,采用网格化动态联动式应急管理模式需要搭建统一预警处置平台。     

The effect of improved nowcasting of precipitation on air quality modeling

The predictive potential of air quality models and thus their value in emergency management and public health support are critically dependent on the quality of their meteorological inputs. The atmospheric flow is the primary cause of the dispersion of airborne substances. The scavenging of pollutants by cloud particles and precipitation is an important sink of atmospheric pollution and subsequently determines the spatial distribution of the deposition of pollutants. The long-standing problem of the spin-up of clouds and precipitation in numerical weather prediction models limits the accuracy of the prediction of short-range dispersion and deposition from local sources. The resulting errors in the atmospheric concentration of pollutants also affect the initial conditions for the calculation of the long-range transport of these pollutants. Customary the spin-up problem is avoided by only using NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) forecasts with a lead time greater than the spin-up time of the model. Due to the increase of uncertainty with forecast range this reduces the quality of the associated forecasts of the atmospheric flow.In this article recent improvements through diabatic initialization in the spin-up of large-scale precipitation in the Hirlam NWP model are discussed. In a synthetic example using a puff dispersion model the effect is demonstrated of these improvements on the deposition and dispersion of pollutants with a high scavenging coefficient, such as sulphur, and a low scavenging coefficient, such as cesium-137. The analysis presented in this article leads to the conclusion that, at least for situations where large-scale precipitation dominates, the improved model has a limited spin-up so that its full forecast range can be used. The implication for dispersion modeling is that the improved model is particularly useful for short-range forecasts and the calculation of local deposition. The sensitivity of the hydrological processes to proper initialization implies that the spin-up problem may reoccur with changes in the model and increased model resolution. Spin-up should be an ongoing concern for atmospheric modelers.     

O_3/H_2O_2工艺降解1,2,4-三氯苯的优化设计

考察用不同的氧化剂降解1,2,4-三氯苯(TCB),3种不同方法对TCB的去除效果存在较大差别,其处理效果依次为:H2O2O3O3/H2O2。采用响应面法优化O3/H2O2工艺降解TCB的条件。结果表明,TCB初始浓度和H2O2投加量对TCB去除效果影响较大。TCB的降解符合准一级反应动力学规律,最佳降解条件为TCB初始浓度0.3 mg/L,pH=8.13,H2O2投加量0.40 mmol/L,O3转化率75%。在此条件下,TCB的平均去除率为91.5%,与预测值93.1%吻合度较高。     

华北1743-1744年与1876-1878年旱灾中的政府粮食调度与社会后果对比

以《清实录》等清代档案文献为主要历史信息源,挑选华北地区清代盛期(1743-1744年)和晚期(1876-1878年)分别发生的两次典型旱灾,对灾害气候背景和灾情、政府措施(特别是政府主导的跨区粮食调度)、社会后果(人口迁徙和动乱)等信息进行整理并分别对比,可以发现1743-1744年旱灾期间政府的粮食调度体现出粮食数量大、来源渠道广、调度效率高等鲜明特点,并取得了良好的社会效果;而1876-1878年旱灾则反之,粮食数量及来源有限,且转运效率极低,由此引发严重社会后果。这种转变,发生在主要余粮产区农业凋敝、南北粮食运道(大运河)阻断、漕运及仓储制度衰败的时代背景之下,重灾区空间分布带来的交通通达性差异,也在客观上影响了粮食调度的效率。     

混凝土重力坝的地震响应分析

进行了某混凝土重力坝在多遇和罕遇地震荷载作用下的二维地震响应分析,比较了水位条件对大坝动力响应的影响。研究表明,在多遇地震荷载作用下,大坝应力应变关系基本处于弹性状态,在罕遇地震荷载作用下,最大地震动位移出现在大坝上侧,随着水位的上升,大坝上侧的位移和坝踵处动应力逐渐减小,而下游坝面折坡处的动应力基本不变。