基于GIS的小城镇洪灾淹没分析与应急决策系统

近年来,将GIS技术与水文模型相结合,再根据数字高程模型DEM预测、模拟显示洪水淹没区,并进行灾害评估,已成为GIS应用和水利领域一个研究热点。笔者介绍了利用GIS技术建立的小城镇洪灾淹没分析与应急决策系统的构架、数据库的建设及其实现的功能等内容。该系统解决了一系列关键技术:小城镇空间数据库的建库技术及三维可视化、洪水淹没范围的确定以及洪水淹没实时动态演示等,能够对洪水灾害及其损失进行分析预测,对洪水灾情进行快速评估,是小城镇政府部门科学地制定防洪和减灾对策,迅速有效地采取抗洪救灾措施的保障手段。该系统适合我国现有国情,有利于维护小城镇社会经济持续稳定发展,具有很强的现实意义。     

基于ITS的紧急事件快速反应系统的研究

我国道路交通中紧急事件快速反应的状况随着机动车数量的急剧增长而恶化,社会各界同时也认识到,为改进紧急事件快速反应体系和充分运用社会资源的重要性。智能交通系统(ITS)是一个高科技集成系统,它综合运用各种高新技术于整个交通管理系统之中,可以系统、全面、高效地提高交通运输的安全性。随着ITS相关技术在城市交通的进一步应用,为道路交通中紧急事件快速反应系统带来了新的契机。针对现状,笔者阐述了与交通相关的紧急事件的发生原因,提出了需要利用先进的交通管理系统来对紧急事件做出快速的反应;重点介绍了基于ITS的紧急事件快速反应系统,包括紧急事件快速反应所需的系统资源,以及信息采集方式和各个子系统构成情况等主要方面。紧急事件快速反应系统,可以有效地利用社会资源,降低紧急事件可能造成的经济损失,减少人员伤亡。     

Determination of human error probabilities for offshore platform musters

The focus of this work is on prediction of human error probabilities during the process of emergency musters on offshore oil and gas production platforms. Due to a lack of human error databases, and in particular human error data for offshore platform musters, an expert judgment technique, the Success Likelihood Index Methodology (SLIM), was adopted as a vehicle to predict human error probabilities. Three muster scenarios of varying severity (man overboard, gas release, and fire and explosion) were studied in detail. A panel of 24 judges active in the offshore oil and gas industry provided data for both the weighting and rating of six performance shaping factors. These data were subsequently processed by means of SLIM to calculate the probability of success for 18 muster actions ranging from point of muster initiator to the final actions in the temporary safe refuge (TSR). The six performance shaping factors considered in this work were stress, complexity, training, experience, event factors and atmospheric factors.     

Real-time response system for the prediction of the atmospheric transport of hazardous materials

Human urge of exploiting earth resources has resulted into unprecedented industrial development in the last century resulting into production of large quantities of hazardous chemicals. Chemical, petrochemical, nuclear, biomedical and pharmaceutical industrial accidents release large quantities of hazardous chemicals into the atmosphere. The accidental discharge during production or storage or transportation have subjected the population to be exposed to exceptionally high concentration levels of hazardous chemicals, taking them by surprise, unprepared with fatal consequences. An emergency planning organization has to be trained to combat this situation in the shortest possible time to minimize the number of causalities. The present paper focuses on computation of dispersion model, using emission source, accident location and online metrological data near to the sources, to provide necessary and accurate results swiftly. The predicted ground level concentrations with the hazardous nature of the chemical, speed and direction of plume, the emergency team will be supplied with all the information in graphical easy to grasp form, superimposed over a GIS map or the latest satellite image of the area.

The emergency team has to be trained for all past scenarios and their preparedness, response and actions must be practiced regularly to be able to abate chemical releases accidentally or intentionally.

Accidental releases of chlorine and ammonia gases in residential and industrial areas are simulated. The predicted ground level concentrations in the effected areas are shown after different time intervals. For low vapor pressure chemical, the dispersion time is large and concentration levels are low but persist for prolonged time while for volatile chemical, the concentrations are high in short time and recovering to safe environment is quick.     

地震应急期的分期

地震应急期一般为10天左右.10天以后,灾区将转入恢复重建期.在这10天里,每天的应急工作是有所侧重的.应急工作的先后次序,完全根据救灾现场的需求安排.建议将地震应急期划分为特急期、突急期和紧急期.特急期:震后24 h,其主要任务是救人.突急期:震后2～3 d,其主要任务是治伤.紧急期:震后4～10 d,其主要任务是安置灾民生活.     

GIS在山东省震后早期应急系统中的应用

本文将地理信息系统（GIS）应用于震后早期地震形势判定，地震灾情快速了解，地震监测能力汇总显示等地震应急工作，建立了山东省震后早期地震应急信息系统，实现以历史地震活动信息和地震地质构造背景为基础，以最大概率法给出地震早期形势的判定。同时快速给出震中附近各种历史地震特点，快速给出灾害的影响范围和震区地震监测能力的统计分析结果，为地震早期应急工作提供高显示度的综合信息。     

海上溢油事故应急反应系统的框架研究

一旦发生海上溢油事故，溢油事故应急反应系统将有效地负责溢油事故的各种应急处理，以确保海洋生态系统的安全和减少经济损失。本文初步给出了海上溢油事故应急反应系统的总体模型架，并分析了系统的构成及其主要功能。本框架可为建立海上溢油事故应急反应系统提供参考。     

国家生产安全应急救援体系分级响应和救援程序探讨

应急救援的响应机制是国家生产安全应急体系运行的重要基础 ,是保证应急救援活动快速、有效的技术关键。应依据生产安全事故的预期后果、影响范围、事态控制和事件的性质 ,实行预备 (Ⅰ级 )、专业启动(Ⅱ级 )和国家启动 (Ⅲ级 )三级响应机制。在各级应急组织制定和实施通用的应急响应程序 ,使应急反应的接警、启动、救援实施、事态控制、应急恢复 ,直到应急结束的全过程实现程序化和标准化。同时还应建立应急救援演练与评审改进机制 ,以评价应急体系的能力 ,检验应急预案的实效性 ,持续改进 ,不断完善 ,以提高整体应急水平。     

Constitutive and herbivore‐induced volatiles in pear,alder and hawthorn trees

Summary. Qualitative and quantitative differences among pear cultivars were found in constitutive and Cacopsylla-induced volatiles, depending on experimental treatment of the trees (i.e., uninfested and partly or completely infested by psyllids). Blend differences were also found between pear cultivars and wild-type pear, alder and hawthorn–the latter trees are frequently present in pear orchard hedgerows. ?Interesting differences were found in the presence of methyl salicylate and (E,E)-α-farnesene, two compounds previously found to mediate attraction of predatory bugs towards psyllid-infested pear trees. Methyl salicylate is expressed constitutively and is induced systemically by infestation in the whole plant of all four cultivars. (E,E)-α-farnesene on the other hand showed also systemic induction in Bartlett, NY10355 and Beurré Hardy, but in partially infested Conference trees it was induced locally, only in herbivore-damaged leaves. No methyl salicylate or (E,E)-α-farnesene were identified in honeydew. In field collected headspace samples of alder leaves infested by aphids and leaf beetles we found methyl salicylate but no (E,E)-α-farnesene, whereas in uninfested hawthorn neither were identified. Insight in the variability of damage-related pear volatiles will have important implications for integrated pest management in the field. Received 27 August 2002; accepted 28 November 2002 R1D=" Correspondence to: Petru Scutareanu, e-mail:scuterea@science.uva.nl