由洪水泛滥的教训谈国家统一灾害管理

本文系统分析和总结了美国在洪泛平原管理中的经验教训，研究了减灾措施、行为反应及国家长期减灾目标等方面的内容，从综合的角度提出了统一的国家减灾计划。     

PARTIAL AREA RESPONSE ON SMALL SEMIARID WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Significant errors in estimating surface runoff and erosion rates are possible if a watershed is assumed to contribute runoff uniformly over the entire area, when actually only a portion of the entire area may be contributing. Generation of overland flow on portions of small semiarid watersheds was analyzed by three methods: an average loss rate procedure, a lumped-linear model, and a distributed-nonlinear model. These methods suggested that, on the average, 45, 60, and 50% of the drainage area was contributing runoff at the watershed outlet. Infiltrometer data support the partial area concept and indicate that the low infiltration zones are the runoff source areas as simulated with the distributed-nonlinear model.     

基于有限元的局部突变位移载荷下埋地管道力学分析

冻土融沉、盐渍土溶陷等地质灾害会导致局部土壤产生一定位移,对埋地长输管道安全性构成威胁。为保障埋地管道的安全运行,建立了局部突变型位移载荷作用下埋地管道力学分析模型,采用非线性土弹簧描述管土相互作用,分析了局部突变区域长度及突变位移量对埋地管道受力的影响。研究结果表明:因局部突变区长度与突变位移量的不同,管道存在3种受力状态,当局部突变区域长度大于临界突变区长度时,管道轴心应变与弯曲应变在突变区域内不产生耦合,此时在突变区域两端可等效为2个垂直正断层,即为第一种受力状态;当突变区域长度小于临界突变区长度时,随着突变位移的增加,管道应变随之增加,管道轴心应变与弯曲应变在突变区域内不断叠加,即为第二种受力状态;在第二种受力状态基础上,当突变位移大于临界突变位移时,管道应变不再发生变化,管道等效为受到垂向均布荷载的作用,即为第三种受力状态。研究结果可为工程中管道穿越地质灾害区域的设计提供参考。     

爆炸荷载下地铁隧道损伤规律研究

地铁在运营中存在诸多风险,特别是外爆炸带来的危害尤为突出。为避免由此产生的风险,需对地铁隧道在外部侧爆炸瞬时强荷载作用下隧道衬砌结构损伤效应进行研究,进而对隧道衬砌结构的损伤程度作出判断。以西安地铁6号线工程为依托,利用ANSYS/LS-DYNA软件建立有限元模型,分析外爆炸荷载作用下应力波的传播规律;选取地面侧爆角度和隧道埋置深度2个因素建立分析工况,研究了外爆炸荷载下隧道衬砌结构的受力状态规律,隧道埋深15,18 m相较埋深12 m衰减了20,125个微应变;同时直观地对隧道衬砌结构的损伤程度进行分析。开展该项研究为地铁隧道结构抗爆防护设计提供了理论依据,具有较高的技术、经济和社会效率。     

混凝土抗爆墙防护性能的改进

借鉴国外模块化钢结构抗爆墙,根据我国当前工程实际情况,提出对传统混凝土抗爆墙进行改进的方案,以提高其安全防护性能。基于GB 50779—2012、SH/T 3160—2009的简支梁计算模型,对传统截面混凝土抗爆墙与新型抗爆墙的抗爆性能进行分析比较。就规范主要检验的变形指标,从理论分析和数值模拟两方面,对新型抗爆墙的抗爆安全性能进行了分析,并用经验公式及离散化求解方法对模拟结果进行了检验,确保了计算结果的可信性。结果表明,该改进方案是可行的,它能有效提高抗爆墙的安全防护性能。改进后的抗爆墙拥有更大的抗弯承载力,能够减小爆炸冲击时所产生的变形。波段高度越大,承载能力越高,刚度越大,跨中位移越小。改进方案具有良好的经济性,在设计承载力相同的情况下,新型抗爆墙消耗材料较少,并能减少因制作木模板而对环境造成的破坏。     

A reliability evaluation method based on the weakest failure modes for side-by-side offloading mooring system of FPSO

Offshore structures are complex systems, and numerous failure modes must be taken into consideration when reliability analysis in different loads and environment conditions are conducted on them. It is difficult to obtain structural system reliability with respect to complicated systems with numerous failure modes and dependency consideration among them. This paper applies the combination of the weakest failure modes theory with structural reliability theory to conduct reliability analysis on of side-by-side offloading mooring system of FPSO. Firstly, the numerical simulation of the system in different conditions is addressed to acquire the statistical data of time-history stress of components including hawsers, fenders and yoke, based on which, the reliability indexes of all the failure modes and correlation coefficient matrix are derived. Then the weakest failure modes, i.e. the representative failure modes that have significant impact on the system, are located through Probability Network Evaluation Technique. The probability of structural system is estimated through the weakest failure modes by considering the system as series. The analysis results indicate that two environment conditions (0°&0°&0° and 0°&30°&45° in combinations of wave, wind and current) are relative dangerous, which is in good correspondence with the practical expertise. The method is verified to be an effective and convenient evaluation approach for structural reliability analysis in terms of complex systems. It is beneficial for the identification of structure indicators from the weakest failure mode group and conduct optimum of structural system configurations in the design stage.     

一株异养硝化-好氧反硝化菌JY78的筛选及其脱氮特性研究

从水源水库沉积物中筛选出一株高效异养硝化-好氧反硝化细菌JY78,以乙酸钠为碳源,分别以硝酸钠、氯化铵为唯一氮源研究菌株JY78的好氧反硝化、异养硝化特性。结果表明,经过72 h的反硝化过程,JY78对硝氮的去除率达到83.65%,总氮去除率达到58.46%;经过36 h的硝化过程,菌株对氨氮的去除率达到93.53%,总氮去除率达到76.15%。通过形态观察、生理生化分析及16S rRNA测序分析,JY78为不动杆菌Acinetobacter oleivorans。利用响应曲面法研究了p H值、温度、溶解氧和C/N比四因素交互作用对菌株反硝化特性的影响。结果表明,菌株JY78脱氮的最优条件为:C/N比8.0,温度22.57℃,转速37.94 r/min,初始p H值8.15。在此条件下硝氮能够达到最大去除率89.79%。同时,菌株JY78可以耐受低C/N比及低温条件。研究表明,菌株JY78具有突出的异养硝化-好氧反硝化能力,在处理微污染水源水方面具有应用潜力。     

飞机客舱安全疏散影响因素研究

为提高和优化民航客机安全疏散效率,选取出口个数、出口位置、出口宽度和过道宽度四个因素,基于steering模型构建仿真模型,分析不同因素对疏散效率的影响。结果表明,前后出口疏散效率优于中间出口,且出口大于3个时,增加出口对疏散效率影响不显著;出口宽度从50cm增加到65cm,疏散效率提升明显,大于65cm之后,对疏散影响不显著;过道宽度设置为70cm较为合理;客舱前后区域疏散时间差异明显,前部疏散明显快于后部;通过优化客舱布局,设置合理的结构参数,消除了过道和出口瓶颈,并显著提升了客舱人员疏散效率。     

Ensuring emergency planning & response meet the minimum Process Safety Management (PSM) standards requirements

When incidents happen and the consequences are not mitigated effectively, one of the indicated failures consists of ineffective emergency planning and response (EPR). EPR is an important aspect of the Process Safety Management (PSM) Standards, and the guidelines are stated in CFR 1910.119 (n) which explains the minimum elements of emergency response and procedures in handling emergency or small releases. Despite its implementation in 1992, CSB finds ineffective EPR system in certain accidents such as the Missouri DPS Enterprise Chlorine Gas Release accident in 2002. DPS EPR failed in planning on location of emergency equipment and accessibility. Many other accidents have occurred throughout the decade and even though organizations have their own EPR system, there are issues in meeting minimum PSM requirements. There also exists the problem of self-regulatory policies practiced by organizations, which might not meet these requirements as well. To help organizations meet these minimum requirements, the purpose of this paper is to present a structured and easy technique to plan and implement EPR as per PSM requirements. A model has been developed based on this technique, and its application has been tested as a case study in a refinery in Malaysia and discussed throughout this report. The results reflected the feasibility of this model as it helped users to track and manage documents efficiently. This technique has the potential to help users to manage EPR better and to reduce adverse impacts to people, environment and assets.     

Indigenous responses to drought in sub-Saharan Africa*

Drought is a frequent occurrence in contemporary sub-Saharan Africa, and the existence of periodic drought can be documented over hundreds of years. As a consequence of the routine rainfall shortages that affect them, agricultural and pastoral societies have developed a number of social institutions and mechanisms for bridging temporary food production shortfalls caused by drought. Drawing on the literature and field data from southeastern Kenya, this paper discusses a number of regular indigenous responses to short-term drought in sub-Saharan Africa. Changes in these patterns in the present day are also discussed. It is concluded that market-based responses are now the most important strategies, but that traditional institutions remain significant and contribute to the viability of drought-affected societies.