基于生物数学模型的飞行疲劳预测建模与仿真

为了合理调整机组排班计划来减少飞行疲劳隐患,重点分析与排班相关的时间因素对飞行疲劳的影响,将飞行员在一天中的飞行疲劳分解为执勤期和休息期的两个分量,然后基于生物数学模型对其进行量化,建立在机组排班过程中预测飞行员飞行疲劳的数学模型。以东航A330机队部分飞行员的任务计划为例进行仿真分析,结果表明,在目标时间段内延长飞行员的连续执勤时间、增加任务总数以及缩短相邻任务间的休息时间,均会使飞行员的疲劳值增加。因此,为了降低飞行疲劳风险,机组在制定排班计划时,应适当减少飞行员的连续执勤时间,酌情增加相邻任务间的休息时间。     

基于SPA-Markov的飞行安全态势评估与预测研究

为提高航空公司飞行安全风险控制和预测水平,利用QAR数据作为支撑,结合集 对分析和马尔科夫理论建立飞行安全态势评估模型。该模型以QAR超限事件为评估指标 ,采用集对分析中的联系度来描述安全风险等级;运用马尔科夫理论确定安全状态的转 移概率矩阵,以预测飞行安全动态变化趋势。最后以某公司A320机队6个月发生频率最 高的7类超限事件对模型进行验证。结果表明:该公司2月、6月和预测月份的安全状态 为一般风险,其他月份为低风险;总体安全状态也为一般风险,并有增加趋势。     

土壤中有机污染物的气相色谱-四极杆飞行时间质谱非靶标筛查

本文基于气相色谱-四极杆飞行时间质谱(GC-QTOF/MS)对宜昌某化学工业园区内的土壤进行潜在有机污染物的非靶标筛查.根据已有高分辨数据库和保留时间信息,采用精确质量数提取筛查流程识别出样品中96种污染物,主要以多环芳烃及其代谢产物、氯苯类和农药为主.进一步通过未知物分析软件解卷积功能和质谱NIST数据库的匹配,发现了如二氯苯胺、9-芴酮、3-甲基二苯并噻吩等更多的污染物.该方法能够快速筛查和识别出样品中潜在有机污染物,为当地污染物的风险管控提供借鉴意义.     

Are pilots at risk of accidents due to fatigue?

PROBLEM: There is concern in the aviation community that pilot schedules can lead to fatigue and increased chance of an aviation accident. Yet despite this concern, there is little empirical analysis showing the relationship between pilot schedules and commercial aviation accidents. This study attempts to demonstrate an empirical relationship between pilot schedules and aviation accidents. METHOD: Data for human factors-related accidents and pilot work patterns were identified. The distribution of pilot work schedule parameters for the accidents was compared to that for all pilots using a chi-square test to determine if the proportions of accidents and length of duty exposure were the same. If the distributions are the same, then one could infer that pilot human factor accidents are not affected by work schedule parameters. RESULTS: The proportion of accidents associated with pilots having longer duty periods is higher than the proportion of longer duty periods for all pilots. DISCUSSION: There is a discernible pattern of increased probability of an accident as duty time increases for commercial aircraft pilots in the United States. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The analysis suggests that establishing limits on duty time for commercial pilots would reduce risk. Such a rule is likely to be expensive and could substantially impact the commercial airlines. In return, there is likely to be a reduction in the risk of commercial aviation accidents due to pilot fatigue.     

解释结构模型在航空事故分析中的应用

为了提高航空事故分析的有效性,促进飞行安全,运用系统工程中解释结构模型(ISM),以发生的航空事故为例建立ISM并进行了系统分析.将事故的12种原因分为4个层次,明确了不同层次中的要素及其关联影响.该方法能为航空事故预防和分析提供一条有效的途径,对航空公司的安全管理也有很大的参考价值.     

Point of decision: when do pigeons decide to head home?

Pigeons released away from their loft usually fly around at the release site for a while before they finally leave. Visual observations had suggested that the moment when the birds decide to head home is associated with a certain change in flying style. To see whether this change is also reflected by GPS-recorded tracks, a group of pigeons equipped with flight recorders was released at two sites about 10 km from their home loft. The initial part of their flight paths was analyzed in order to find objective criteria indicating the point of decision. We selected the highest increase in steadiness as the best estimate for the moment of decision. This criterion allows us to divide the pigeons’ paths in two distinct phases, an initial phase and the homing phase, with the moment of decision, on an average, 2 min after release. The moment of decision marks a change in behavior, with a significant increase in steadiness and flying speed and headings significantly closer to the home direction. The behavior of the individual birds at the two sites was not correlated, suggesting no pronounced individual traits for the length of the initial phase. The behavior during this phase seems to be controlled by flight preparation, exploration, and non-navigational motivations rather than by navigational necessities alone. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

飞机结构日历寿命及腐蚀防护研究应关注的问题

介绍了飞机寿命体系,阐述了典型飞机服役环境和飞机使用寿命情况。列举了典型飞机结构的腐蚀实例,并剖析了腐蚀失效的原因。在综合分析当前我国飞机面临的腐蚀和日历寿命主要问题的基础上,阐明腐蚀是引起飞机结构失效的主要损伤模式,也是严重影响飞机飞行安全和经济修理的主要因素,探讨了飞机结构日历寿命及腐蚀防护研究应重点关注的一些问题。     

民航飞行员工作自主性研究

为探讨民航飞行员工作自主性的现状,分析影响民航飞行员工作自主性的因素,进而提出有针对性的管理措施,以期达到提高飞行安全与效益的目的。采用自编的民航飞行员工作自主性问卷对中国民航253名飞行员进行测试,并对取得数据进行T检验和多因素方差分析以研究影响工作自主性的因素。结果发现,民航飞行员的工作自主性主要受到3个因素的影响,即婚姻状况、现在职位和工作年限。可采用合理引导、完善考核方式、加强教育培训、构建良好的职业认同感与成就感来提高民航飞行员的工作自主性。     

国外热塑性树脂基复合材料低轨原子氧环境效应研究进展

针对具有良好应用前景的热塑性树脂基复合材料,调研并分析了国外飞行试验获得的数据,从原子氧反应率、力学性能退化、微裂纹等多个方面分析研究了原子氧环境对热塑性树脂基复合材料作用效应,为空间站等低轨道航天器结构材料的设计和选择提供依据。     

军机飞行安全预警的集对分析-可变模糊方法

为了深化军机飞行安全管理,需开展飞行安全预警工作,而安全预警方法是影响军机飞行安全预警结果是否合理可靠的关键因素。从"人、机、环境、组织因素"4个方面构建了军机飞行安全预警的指标体系;用集对分析方法中综合联系度代替可变模糊集方法中的相对差异度,提出了飞行安全预警的集对分析-可变模糊方法。运用集对分析-可变模糊方法对4个样本进行预警分析,并将其结果与模糊综合评价和灰色综合评价的预警结果进行对比分析。3种方法对样本2、3、4的预警结果一致,而对样本1集对分析-可变模糊方法的预警结果为Ⅲ级,模糊综合评价法和灰色综合评价法的预警结果为Ⅱ级。通过分析可知,样本1的综合安全状态倾向于Ⅲ级。结果表明,集对分析-可变模糊方法的结果更为合理,方法是可行的、有效的。