环境中的微塑料:赋存、检测及其危害

近年来,由个人护理品及废旧塑料直接或间接产生的微塑料不断地在各种环境介质中被检出,且微塑料会对生态系统产生各种危害,因此对微塑料的研究受到越来越广泛的关注。阐述了微塑料在水体、沉积物、沙滩和生物体中的赋存情况,介绍了微塑料的采集与分离方法,以及定性与定量分析方法。指出微塑料对环境及生物体产生的危害,提出现阶段研究存在的主要问题,并对今后的研究方向进行了展望。     

双重预防机制在家具制造业的应用与实践

为了减少安全事故的发生,进一步加强和规范企业生产现场的安全管理,探索双重预防机制在企业安全管理中的应用,结合家具制造企业安全生产现状,运用风险分级管控与隐患排查的相关理论,详细论述了企业构建双重预防体系的要点及方法,并提出了双重预防体系的监督与考核机制。实践结果证明,双重预防机制是一个统一的有机结合体,只有将风险分级管控体系和隐患排查治理体系有机结合,才能将导致事故发生的根源性因素进行有效识别和管控,双重预防机制建设也是一个动态管理的过程,需要及时进行监督、考核和调整。     

A Bayesian network-based approach for the assessment and management of ageing in major hazard establishments

Currently, there is an increasing attention towards ageing of industrial equipment, as the phenomenon has been recognised as a cause of severe accidents, recorded in the last years in many process establishments. Recent studies described ageing through a number of key-factors affecting the phenomenon by accelerating or slowing it down. The Italian Competent Authority for the prevention of chemical accidents (Seveso III Directive) adopted a short-cut method, accounting for the assessment of these factors, to evaluate the adequateness of ageing management during inspections at Seveso sites. In this paper, a Bayesian Network was developed, by using the data gathered during the first application of the short-cut method, with the aim to verify the robustness of the approach for ageing assessment and the validity of the a priori assumptions used in assessing the key-factors. The structure of the Bayesian network was established by using experts’ knowledge, whereas the Counting Learning algorithm was adopted to execute the parameter learning by means of the software Netica. The results showed that this network could effectively explore the complex logical and uncertain relationships amongst factors affecting equipment ageing. Results of the present study were exploited to improve the short-cut method.     

Inherent thermal runaway hazard evaluation method of chemical process based on fire and explosion index

Thermal runaway hazard assessment provides the basis for comparing the hazard levels of different chemical processes. To make an overall evaluation, hazard of materials and reactions should be considered. However, most existing methods didn't take the both into account simultaneously, which may lead the assessment to a deviation from the actual hazard. Therefore, an integrated approach called Inherent Thermal-runaway Hazard Index (ITHI) was developed in this paper. Similar to Dow Fire and Explosion Index(F&EI) function, thermal runaway hazard of chemical process in ITHI was the product of material factor (MF) and risk index (RI) of reaction. MF was an indicator of material thermal hazards, which can be determined by initial reaction temperature and maximum power density. RI, which was the product of probability and severity, indicated the risk of thermal runaway during the reaction stage. Time to maximum rate under adiabatic conditions and criticality classes of scenario were used to indicate the runaway probability of the chemical process. Adiabatic temperature rise and heat of the desired reaction and secondary reaction were used to determine the severity of runaway reaction. Finally, predefined hazard classification criteria was used to classify and interpret the results obtained by this method. Moreover, the method was validated by case studies.     

煤矿水害风险量化评价方法

为提高煤矿防治水管理水平,预防和消除矿井水害,在层次分析法的基础上建立中性值作为参照对象对矿井水害风险进行实时评判的方法。根据《煤矿防治水细则》建立以矿井水文地质类型、矿井涌水量标准分数、突水预兆、采掘面位置、探水结果为准则层的层次结构模型,并对各评价指标赋权。依据制定的水害风险评价指标的评分细则和监测监控数据并结合其权重得到水害评价总得分。通过总得分与中性参照分数比较得出预测结果:水害评价总得分大于中性参照分数,证明水害的威胁小,分数越高越安全;反之则水害的威胁较大,分数越低越危险,这时需要加强防治水的力度,令评价分数管控大于中性参照分数。这种方法依赖于井下监测监控数据进行量化评价,能实时、客观、全面且准确地反映煤矿水害的风险情况。     

某矿低铜废石综合回收利用项目职业病危害预评价

为了对某矿业有限公司低铜废石综合回收利用项目可能产生的职业病危害因素进行辨识、分析和评价,采用检查表、类比法相结合的原则对该项目的铲装、破碎、运输、筑堆等工艺进行分析评价,并利用经验法对浸出、萃取电积工艺进行分析评价。结果表明:类比工程中绝大部分粉尘、噪声检测点的浓（强）度符合国家标准;化学毒物、工频电场接触浓（强）度符合国家标准;电积车间的通风满足要求;萃取车间的事故通风能力不足。评价方法及通风计算方法对同类项目具有借鉴意义。     

汽车用聚合物材料火灾燃烧特性研究

为研究车用聚合物材料的燃烧特性,并对材料的火灾危险性进行全方位的评估,采用锥形量热仪,对汽车上常用的ABS,PP-PVC,PVC革-无纺毡以及无纺布-PVC聚合物材料进行分析表征,测得点燃时间、热释放速率、总热释放量、质量损失速率、烟气生成速率等参数。结果表明:ABS材料的点燃危险性相对最低,PVC革-无纺毡材料相对最高;随热辐射强度的增加,各样品的热释放速率和烟气生成速率明显加快;结合热释放速率峰值、均值和总热释放量可知,无纺布-PVC材料的热危险性相对最低;结合烟气生成速率和总烟释放量可知,ABS材料的发烟危害性相对最高,无纺布-PVC的相对最低;综合比较各样品的FGI和FPI值,安全等级由高到低依次为ABS,PP-PVC,PVC革-无纺毡,无纺布-PVC。     

A path analysis model for explaining unsafe behavior in workplaces: the effect of perceived work pressure

Background. Unsafe behavior is closely related to occupational accidents. Work pressure is one the main factors affecting employees’ behavior. The aim of the present study was to provide a path analysis model for explaining how work pressure affects safety behavior. Methods. Using a self-administered questionnaire, six variables supposed to affect safety employees’ behavior were measured. The path analysis model was constructed based on several hypotheses. The goodness of fit of the model was assessed using both absolute and comparative fit indices. Results. Work pressure was determined not to influence safety behavior directly. However, it negatively influenced other variables. Group attitude and personal attitude toward safety were the main factors mediating the effect of work pressure on safety behavior. Among the variables investigated in the present study, group attitude, personal attitude and work pressure had the strongest effects on safety behavior. Conclusion. Managers should consider that in order to improve employees’ safety behavior, work pressure should be reduced to a reasonable level, and concurrently a supportive environment, which ensures a positive group attitude toward safety, should be provided. Replication of the study is recommended.     

基于数值模拟的台风危险性分析综述(Ⅱ)——随机抽样模拟与极值风速预测

台风危险性分析是台风损失估计及防灾减灾的基础。对基于数值模拟的台风危险性分析所采用的随机台风概率模型、随机抽样模拟方法和极值风速预测进行了回顾与评述,包括台风关键参数概率模型及其相关性、台风路径模型、台风登陆衰减和海陆风速转换模型以及台风极值风速概率模型,并针对我国东南沿海地区台风危险性分析数值模拟采用的相关模型给出了相关建议。     

基于层次分析法的未确知测度理论泥石流危险性评价

将未确知测度理论与层次分析方法相结合用于评价泥石流危险性。根据泥石流危险性的影响因素和等级划分标准,选取泥石流规模、泥石流发生频率、流域面积、主沟长度、最大相对高差、流域切割密度、主沟床弯曲系数、泥砂补给长度比、24小时最大降雨量、人口密度等10个指标作为泥石流危险评价因子,利用未确知测度理论建立泥石流危险性评价指标的未确知测度函数,通过层次分析方法确定各评价指标的权重,依据置信度识别准则对泥石流危险性进行评价,并结合实例进行了对比分析。研究结果表明,基于层次分析方法的未确知测度理论的评价方法评价过程合理、置信度高、结果可靠,为泥石流危险性评价提供了一种新的方法