基于PSO-AHP的大坝致灾因子权重计算

提出了一种基于改进粒子群优化-层次分析法(SELPSO-AHP)的致灾因子权重计算模型,该模型依据大坝现场检测、原型监测和安全定期检查等成果,由层次分析法构建大坝风险分析的层次结构体系。为保证判断矩阵的一致性,引入改进粒子群算法和罚函数法用于层次分析法的权值计算,取得了比遗传算法更精确、更稳定的结果。将所建立的模型用于某混凝土重力坝的运行风险分析,得到了影响该坝运行风险的主要因素,为保障大坝安全提供了依据。     

上海降雨特征及其对城市水情灾害的影响

利用上海降雨资料,分析了上海汛期降雨的变化和最大年日雨量极值的累积分布规律,近期降雨空间分布、暴雨频度和强降雨特征,及气候因子对水情灾害的影响。结果显示,汛期雨量大小对水情灾害影响较为复杂,大暴雨或强降雨是造成水情灾害的重要原因。初步探讨和提出了气候因子的灾害危险评估方法,并对上海各区(县)近期的暴雨灾害影响进行了危险评估;暴雨对上海地区水情灾害影响差异明显,崇明、市中心区和浦东新区暴雨灾害危险较大,南部地区的青浦、金山、奉贤和松江区危险较小。     

Adaptive response criteria in road hazard detection among older drivers

Objectives: The majority of existing investigations on attention, aging, and driving have focused on the negative impacts of age-related declines in attention on hazard detection and driver performance. However, driving skills and behavioral compensation may accommodate for the negative effects that age-related attentional decline places on driving performance. In this study, we examined an important question that had been largely neglected in the literature linking attention, aging, and driving: can top-down factors such as behavioral compensation, specifically adaptive response criteria, accommodate the negative impacts from age-related attention declines on hazard detection during driving?

Methods: In the experiment, we used the Drive Aware Task, a task combining the driving context with well-controlled laboratory procedures measuring attention. We compared younger (n = 16, age 21–30) and older (n = 21, age 65–79) drivers on their attentional processing of hazards in driving scenes, indexed by percentage of correct responses and reaction time of hazard detection, as well as sensitivity and response criteria using signal detection analysis.

Results: Older drivers, in general, were less accurate and slower on the task than younger drivers. However, results from this experiment revealed that older, but not younger, drivers adapted their response criteria when the traffic condition changed in the driving scenes. When there was more traffic in the driving scene, older drivers became more liberal in their responses, meaning that they were more likely to report that a driving hazard was detected.

Conclusions: Older drivers adopt compensatory strategies for hazard detection during driving. Our findings showed that, in the driving context, even at an older age our attentional functions are still adaptive according to environmental conditions. This leads to considerations on potential training methods to promote adaptive strategies that may help older drivers maintain performance in road hazard detection.     

氯丙烯直接环氧化工艺反应物料危险性研究

为了保证利用双氧水氧化氯丙烯直接环氧化制备环氧氯丙烷新工艺的安全开发,针对此工艺涉及的混合危险物料,利用C80量热仪对混合物料热稳定性进行了测试,获得了混合物料热扫描曲线;利用AKTS软件处理得到了混合物料热特性参数和分解动力学数据,在此基础上结合HYSIS软件进行了预防气相燃爆方面的安全分析。结果表明:混合物料初始pH值为8左右,其pH值随放置时间延长而降低;混合物料TD24值为21.3℃,混合物料发生失控的可能性等级为高;混合物料中双氧水分解受温度影响较大,在30℃和60℃下,混合物料分别经过1.3 h和0.8 h就会分解释放出达到氧含量报警值的氧气。     

基于人因可靠性的间歇装置SIL分析与改进

IEC 61508和IEC 61511等标准针对连续工艺装置提出了安全仪表系统安全完整性等级评估方法。但对于间歇装置的SIL评估,受人因因素影响水平并未明确,且没有提出相应计算模型。以某六氟磷酸锂间歇生产装置典型SIS为例,采用HAZOP结合LOPA方法对其进行风险分析,在明确间歇生产装置存在人员中毒、窒息及燃烧爆炸风险的基础上,确定并验证其安全仪表系统的SIL,再依据间歇生产装置人工依赖性高,即部分安全仪表系统未接入自动联锁且需人工手动触发的特点,建立人因可靠性模型,来分析人因可靠性对安全仪表系统SIL的影响,并进行改进研究。研究结果表明:人因因素对安全仪表系统SIL有显著影响;可通过改变SIS元件冗余结构、测试策略并结合改进人因管理措施来提高SIL。     

划分地下水水源地保护区的研究

从环境水文地质学的角度探讨地下水水源地保护区的划分,并提出局地服从区域、地面服从地下,以区定性,不以点定区等项划分原则及包气带防护能力评价,包气带粘性厚度等值线分区方法,并在唐山市城市地下水水源地保护区的划分中得到实际应用。     

中国乡镇企业环境管理区划研究

研究了全国乡镇企业环境管理区划,选择了13个指标：（1）枯水年径流深,（2）降水量,（3）大气污染系数,（4）森林覆盖率,（5）人均耕地面积,（6）县级环境管理机构人数,（7）人口密度,（8）人均国民收入,（9）乡镇企业经济密度,（10）乡镇企业行业结构的环境效应,（11）污径比,（12）原煤消耗密度,（13）乡镇企业技术进步。以模糊聚类数学方法作数量区划,把全国分为4个区、7个亚区。所作区划结果能基本满足国家级分区环境管理的需要。     

填埋气体爆炸危险性评价方法研究

提出了一种评价建筑物内发生填埋气体爆炸事故概率的理论与试验方法。     

High consumption of pesticides in agricultural fields leads to prevalence of cancer cases in rural pockets of eastern India: A case study

This study was performed to evaluate the carcinogenic health risk of pesticides used in agricultural field in rural pockets of eastern India. The analysis of pesticide residue in rice grain sample was performed by Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS). It was observed that for pesticide DDT, the HR values was ranging between 0.5 to 3.2 and for lindane HR was 0.4 to 1.1, respectively. The DDT and Lindane exhibited HR values >1 in some sampling sites which revealed the carcinogenic effects and HR <1 in some sampling sites which revealed non carcinogenic effects of same pesticide. These results revealed a clear indication of potential carcinogenic health risk to human health through consumption of contaminated rice in some areas of Bargarh district. DDT has a long half-life, so it persists in the environment for a longer period of time and induces carcinogenic risk to human health predominantly than other pesticide lindane. A case study on cancer prevalence in Bargarh district was also carried out to support the findings of quantitative analysis. The primary data collected from the cancer affected area by personal questionnaires method to the person concern and the secondary data collected from the Bargarh District Head Quarters Hospital's register. The cancer death reported by the from the year 2015 to 2021 was 320, 380, 293, 323, 278, 409, 346 in the year of 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 respectively, with the total number of 2349 cases. From the questionnaire data, it was observed that the occurrence of male and female cancer cases was 51.75% and 48.25%, respectively. Therefore, it was concluded that there was no significant difference in gender wise cancer prevalence. The most affected age group was 51–60, that is, 26.92% followed by 41–50, that is, 23.42%. Therefore, it was concluded that the middle-aged adults (40–60) were more vulnerable to the cancer than young adults (3–40) and old adults (60–100). The most prevalent cancer was breast (22.72%) followed by stomach (14.33%).     

Foundations of indigenous knowledge on disasters due to natural hazards: lessons from the outlook on floods among the Bayira of the Rwenzori region

The role of indigenous knowledge in increasing context specificity and exposing blind spots in scientific understanding is widely evidenced in disaster studies. This paper aims to structure the processes that shape indigenous knowledge production and its optimisation using the case of floods. An inductive analytical approach is applied among riparian indigenous communities (focus on the Bayira) of the Rwenzori region of Uganda where plenty of indigenous flood practices have been recorded. Indigenous knowledge of floods is found to be based on intimate comprehension of local hydrometeorological regularities. Insofar as these regularities follow natural dynamics, indigenous socio-epistemic processes are noted to be consistent with the laws of nature. Coupled with regular open sociocultural deliberations, the conceptualisation of hydrometeorological regularities induces an indigenous ontology and empiricist epistemology. This, together with the techniques used, is the driver of crucial epistemic virtues which enable indigenous knowledge to provide disaster solutions that are adapted, pragmatic, and holistic.