武汉城市圈产业经济的系统性分析

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摘 要： 构建产业经济的系统性评价指标体系,通过偏离份额方程、产业动态度和偏离度指标对产业结构性和产业演进性这两个维度进行核算,定量揭示武汉城市圈的产业经济发育特征：近20年来,武汉城市圈整体产业结构波动明显,不同城市不同产业在各时段的效益差异明显,呈现一定的圈层结构分异,中心城市武汉增长速度最快,圈域经济发展处于一定的“一极集聚”态势,武汉-鄂州-黄石-孝感城市群产业升级明显,经济发展较快,其余5个城市发展较慢,导致城际产业链群发育不完全,区间产业经济联系较弱;产业结构演进总体上呈现倒“U”型曲线变化规律,中心城市产业结构变动程度差异明显,明显形成3种产业结构演进类型：低偏离度-高结构效益型、中偏离度-中结构效益型、高偏离度-高结构效益型;核心城市武汉的产业结构不断向成熟方向演进,但其它中心城市产业结构仍有待进一步升级优化.     

Real-time wet scavenging of major chemical constituents of aerosols and role of rain intensity in Indian region

Real-time simultaneous studies on chemical characteristics of rainwater and PM₁₀ aerosols were carried out to understand the scavenging of major chemical components in Indian region. The concentrations of Ca²⁺, NH₄⁺, SO₄²⁻ and NO₃⁻ were observed to be lower in the aerosol samples collected during rain as compared to before and after rain events. The most significant reduction was noticed for Ca²⁺ (74%) during rain which showed highest scavenging ratio (SR) and indicated that below-cloud scavenging is an effective removal process for Ca²⁺ in Indian region. Among non-sea salt components, Ca²⁺ had highest SR at Hyderabad indicating typical characteristics of crustal influence as abundance of calcium carbonate in soil dust has been reported in India. However, the levels of these major chemical components gradually got build-up in due course of time. After rain events, the levels of SO₄²⁻ aerosols were noticed to be substantially higher (more than double) within 24 h. In general, scavenging ratios for all components (except Ca²⁺, NH₄⁺ and K⁺) were higher over BOB as compared to Hyderabad. The maximum fall in aerosol levels (BR minus AR) was observed during continuous and low intensity rain events that did not allow building up of aerosol concentrations.     

The organic contamination level based on the total soil mass is not a proper index of the soil contamination intensity

Concentrations of organic contaminants in common productive soils based on the total soil mass give a misleading account of actual contamination effects. This is attributed to the fact that productive soils are essentially water-saturated, with the result that the soil uptake of organic compounds occurs principally by partition into the soil organic matter (SOM). This report illustrates that the soil contamination intensity of a compound is governed by the concentration in the SOM (C_om) rather than by the concentration in whole soil (C_s). Supporting data consist of the measured levels and toxicities of many pesticides in soils of widely differing SOM contents and the related levels in in-situ crops that defy explanation by the C_s values. This SOM-based index is timely needed for evaluating the contamination effects of food crops grown in different soils and for establishing a dependable priority ranking for intended remediation of numerous contamination sites.     

炼油污水处理装置恶臭气体源强估算方法的比较

以某炼油污水处理装置为例,根据其运行现状及恶臭气体的监测结果,使用卫生防护距离反推法、源强经验估算法以及地面浓度反推法3种方法对恶臭气体源强进行估算,并利用AERMOD模式进行预测,对预测值与监测值进行方差分析。实验结果表明：在监测得到的NH₃和H₂S的平均质量浓度分别为0.113,0.006 mg/m³的条件下,卫生防护距离反推法得到的NH₃和H₂S的无组织排放源强分别为2.395,0.127 kg/h。源强经验估算法得到的NH₃和H₂S的源强分别为0.255,0.080 kg/h,地面浓度反推法得到的NH₃和H₂S的源强分别为3.120,0.250 kg/h;源强经验估算法为炼油污水处理装置气体源强估算的最优方法。     

森林采伐限额管理制度能否起到保护森林资源的作用

森林采伐限额管理制度已在我国实行30余年,其能否实现森林资源的永续增长是一个悬而未决且具有重要意义的理论命题。为此,本文在对森林采伐限额管理制度进行制度变迁分析的基础上,以其在1991年和2001年的制度改革为自然实验依据,通过精确断点回归模型估计出森林采伐限额管理制度变迁各阶段对森林资源的保护作用。研究结果表明:新中国成立以后我国森林采伐管制经历了"无管制"、"全面管制"、"分类管制"等三个阶段,政府管制强度总体呈现递增趋势。断点回归结果显示森林采伐限额管理制度的全面实施以及2001年的分类管制改革对有林地面积和森林蓄积量的影响均不显著,可见,1991年森林采伐限额管理制度在全国层面实施并没能起到保护森林资源的作用,2001年后国家加大采伐管制力度,即在加强公益林采伐管制的前提下,不断增加公益林区划面积的做法可能会造成森林资源遭受更严重的破坏。究其原因,主要是森林经营者在生存压力或经济激励下可采取"滥砍滥伐"或"俘获"政府等方式突破现有管制,政府一味的加大管制力度反而会进一步刺激森林经营者"超额"采伐行为。本文同时发现,自1991年以来我国有林地面积、活立木蓄积量大幅度的增加主要归功于重点工程造林项目在全国层面的实施。基于此,认为国家应在限额总量不变的前提下,弱化政府对采伐许可等管理制度的管制力度,并大力发展林区替代产业,降低森林经营者的山林依赖度,以期从本源上解决森林采伐限额管理制度失灵问题。     

加热酸化-Fenton氧化处理乳化液废水

采用加热酸化-Fenton氧化处理乳化液废水,在加酸量为1．0mL98％H2SO4／100mL乳化液、加热温度95℃、加热时间1h条件下,初始COD〉20万mg／L,浊度〉8000NTU的乳化液COD降低到46592mg／L,浊度降低到20NTU,加热和酸化的联合过程达到了良好的破乳效果;破乳后的出水在ρ（Fe2＋）／ρ（H2O2）=1：30、ρ（H2O2）和（COD）=1．4、pH=4的条件下进行Fenton氧化,处理后的出水COD可降到18600mg／L,去除率达61．4％,其B／C可由破乳后的0．11提高到0．43,废水的可生化性大大提高,为后续处理创造了可能。     

能源强度与中国制造业产业结构优化实证

制造业的能源消耗和产业结构优化关系一直是学术界研究的焦点之一。该文利用Geweke因果检验方法,并采用1993—2013年20年间的数据,对中国制造业产业结构优化与制造业能源利用效率之间的关系进行统计和分析。首先,对中国制造业产业结构优化的情况进行描述性分析,将产业结构优化划分成产业结构合理化和高级化两个方面,研究发现中国制造业产业结构优化中高级化都呈现良好的趋势,但制造业产业结构合理化却呈现出"倒U"变化趋势,这与国家的宏观政策具有一定相关性。其次,计算制造业的能源强度,并利用LMD方法对能源强度进行分解,分解为结构效应和技术效应两个方面,研究发现中国制造业能源强度变化受到技术效应影响波及时间较长,结构效应变化造成短期影响较大。最后,利用Gewke因果检验的方法对能源强度和制造业产业结构优化之间的长期因果关系、即时因果关系及整体因果关系进行统计检验,研究发现:中国制造业产业结构优化与能源消耗之间形成两条不同反馈循环,一条为制造业产业结构合理化、结构效应及技术效应之间的短期反馈循环,另一条为产业结构优化内部和技术效应之间的长期反馈循环,这两条循环相互促进和影响,最终形成闭合横"8"字均衡循环。据此,研究给出相应的政策和建议:一是制造业产业结构优化调整是实现能源的"开源节流"的有效手段;二是制定差异化的能源政策和产业结构调整政策是实现"减少能源压力、保证经济发展"双赢局面的重要保障和前提。     

Spatial and temporal variation of energy carbon emissions in Yantai from 2001 to 2011

In order to understand the characteristics of spatial and temporal variation, as well as provide effective ideas on carbon emissions and regulatory policy in Yantai, this article analyzed spatial and temporal variation of carbon emissions in Yantai based on energy consumption statistics for a variety of energy sorts together with industrial sectors from 2001 to 2011. The results were as following: First of all, Yantai’s carbon emissions grew by an average of 5.5% per year during the last 10 years, and there was a peak of 10.48 million carbon in the year of 2011. Second, compared with the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, the figures for energy carbon emissions growth rate were smaller; however the problem of carbon emissions were still more obvious. Furthermore, carbon emissions in Yantai increased rapidly before 2008; while after 2008, it increased more slowly and gradually become stable. Third, the energy consumption was different among regions in Yantai. For instance, the energy consumption in Longkou city was the largest, which occupied 50% of the total carbon emissions in Yantai; and the energy consumption in Chang Island was generally less than 1% of the Longkou consumption. Finally, there were relative close relationships among the spatial difference of carbon emissions, regional resources endowment, economic development, industrial structure, and energy efficiency.     

上海近海海域低层风特性分析

基于南汇和奉贤两个海上测风塔观测资料,采用数值统计分析方法,研究了上海近海海域低层风特征,包括风切变指数特征、风的阵性特征和湍流强度特征。结果表明,上海近海10~70 m高度风切变指数在0.09左右,阵风系数在1.20左右,均小于《建筑结构荷载规范》的推荐值。随着风速的增大,风切变指数和阵风系数均呈减小的变化。当风力等级在4级及以上时,切变指数可靠性较好,阵风系数变化较小,湍流强度基本相等。上海近海阵风系数和湍流强度均随着高度的增加而减小,在40 m以上时都趋于稳定。研究结果可为上海近海风资源评价、重大工程规划设计和施工建设以及区域防灾减灾实践提供科学依据和参考。     

长江中下游冬小麦春季湿渍害灾损风险评估

春季湿渍害对南方冬小麦生长发育和产量形成影响很大。选取能较好反映冬小麦湿渍害特征的降雨量、日照和作物需水量构建湿渍害气象判别指数,从春季湿渍害产量实际损失的角度,对受灾频率、因灾减产频率、产量损失风险强度进行分析,基于减产频率和产量灾损风险强度建立风险评估模型,并依据风险值大小进行分区。结果表明:沿江江南地区冬小麦春季湿渍害受灾频率最高,为风险高值区,约占全区台站27%;风险中值区范围较大,约占47%,分布在江淮东部、淮北大部、江汉平原以及鄂东南地区;低风险区约占全区16%,主要分布在湖北北部和淮北局部地区。