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1.
洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。 相似文献
2.
Background, Aim and Scope Air quality is an field of major concern in large cities. This problem has led administrations to introduce plans and regulations
to reduce pollutant emissions. The analysis of variations in the concentration of pollutants is useful when evaluating the
effectiveness of these plans. However, such an analysis cannot be undertaken using standard statistical techniques, due to
the fact that concentrations of atmospheric pollutants often exhibit a lack of normality and are autocorrelated. On the other
hand, if long-term trends of any pollutant’s emissions are to be detected, meteorological effects must be removed from the
time series analysed, due to their strong masking effects.
Materials and Methods The application of statistical methods to analyse temporal variations is illustrated using monthly carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations
observed at an urban site. The sampling site is located at a street intersection in central Valencia (Spain) with a high traffic
density. Valencia is the third largest city in Spain. It is a typical Mediterranean city in terms of its urban structure and
climatology. The sampling site started operation in January 1994 and monitored CO ground level concentrations until February
2002. Its geographic coordinates are W0°22′52″ N39°28′05″ and its altitude is 11 m. Two nonparametric trend tests are applied.
One of these is robust against serial correlation with regards to the false rejection rate, when observations have a strong
persistence or when the sample size per month is small. A nonparametric analysis of the homogeneity of trends between seasons
is also discussed. A multiple linear regression model is used with the transformed data, including the effect of meteorological
variables. The method of generalized least squares is applied to estimate the model parameters to take into account the serial
dependence of the residuals of this model. This study also assesses temporal changes using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter.
The KZ filter has been shown to be an effective way to remove the influence of meteorological conditions on O3 and PM to examine underlying trends.
Results The nonparametric tests indicate a decreasing, significant trend in the sampled site. The application of the linear model
yields a significant decrease every twelve months of 15.8% for the average monthly CO concentration. The 95% confidence interval
for the trend ranges from 13.9% to 17.7%. The seasonal cycle also provides significant results. There are no differences in
trends throughout the months. The percentage of CO variance explained by the linear model is 90.3%. The KZ filter separates
out long, short-term and seasonal variations in the CO series. The estimated, significant, long-term trend every year results
in 10.3% with this method. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 8.8% to 11.9%. This approach explains 89.9% of the CO temporal
variations.
Discussion The differences between the linear model and KZ filter trend estimations are due to the fact that the KZ filter performs the
analysis on the smoothed data rather than the original data. In the KZ filter trend estimation, the effect of meteorological
conditions has been removed. The CO short-term componentis attributable to weather and short-term fluctuations in emissions.
There is a significant seasonal cycle. This component is a result of changes in the traffic, the yearly meteorological cycle
and the interactions between these two factors. There are peaks during the autumn and winter months, which have more traffic
density in the sampled site. There is a minimum during the month of August, reflecting the very low level of vehicle emissions
which is a direct consequence of the holiday period.
Conclusions The significant, decreasing trend implies to a certain extent that the urban environment in the area is improving. This trend
results from changes in overall emissions, pollutant transport, climate, policy and economics. It is also due to the effect
of introducing reformulated gasoline. The additives enable vehicles to burn fuel with a higher air/fuel ratio, thereby lowering
the emission of CO. The KZ filter has been the most effective method to separate the CO series components and to obtain an
estimate of the long-term trend due to changes in emissions, removing the effect of meteorological conditions.
Recommendations and Perspectives Air quality managers and policy-makers must understand the link between climate and pollutants to select optimal pollutant
reduction strategies and avoid exceeding emission directives. This paper analyses eight years of ambient CO data at a site
with a high traffic density, and provides results that are useful for decision-making. The assessment of long-term changes
in air pollutants to evaluate reduction strategies has to be done while taking into account meteorological variability 相似文献
3.
María L. Pignata Martha S. Cañas Hebe A. Carreras Liliana Orellana 《Environmental management》1997,21(5):793-801
Ligustrum lucidum Ait. f. tricolor (Rehd.) Rehd. in relation to atmospheric pollutants in Córdoba city, Argentina. The study area receives
regional pollutants and was categorized taking into account traffic level, industrial density, type of industry, location
of the sample point in relation to the street corner, treeless condition, and topographic level. Dried weight/fresh weight
ratio (DW/FW) and specific leaf area (SLA) were calculated, and concentrations of chlorophylls, carotenoids, total sulfur,
soluble proteins, malondialdehyde (MDA), and hydroperoxy conjugated dienes (HPCD) were determined in leaf samples. Sulfur
content correlates positively with traffic density and SLA correlates negatively with some combinations of the categorical
variables; MDA correlates positively with topographic level and total protein concentration correlates negatively with treeless
condition. On the basis of our results, traffic, location of trees, type of industry, situation of a tree with respect to
others, and topographic level are the environmental variables to bear in mind when selecting analogous sampling points in
a passive monitoring program. An approximation to predict tree injury may be obtained by measuring DW/FW ratio, proteins,
pigments, HPCD, and MDA as they are responsible for the major variability of data. 相似文献
4.
Bunge Michael Khknen Mika A. Rmisch Winfried Opel Matthias Vogler Susanne Walkow Fred Salkinoja-Salonen Mirja Lechner Ute 《Environmental science and pollution research international》2007,14(1):3-10
Background, Aims and Scope Sediments of the Spittelwasser creek are highly polluted with organic compounds and heavy metals due to the discharge of untreated
waste waters from the industrial region of Bitterfeld-Wolfen, Germany over the course of more than one century. However, relatively
few data have been published about the chloroorganic contamination of the sediment. This paper reports on the content of different
(chloro)organic compounds with special emphasis on polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/F), and chlorobenzenes. Existing concepts for the remediation of Spittelwasser sediment include
the investigation of natural attenuation processes, which largely depend on the presence of an intact microbial food web.
In order to gain more insight in terms of biological activity, we analyzed the capacity of sediment microflora to degrade
organic matter by measuring the activities of extracellular hydrolytic enzymes involved in the biogeochemical cycling of carbon,
nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur. Furthermore, the detection of physiologically active bacteria in the sediment, particularly
of those known for their capability to reductively dehalogenate organochlorine compounds, illustrates the potential for intrinsic
bioremediation processes.
Methods PCDD/F and chlorobenzenes were analyzed by gas chromatography(GC)/mass spectrometry and GC/flame ionization detection, respectively.
The activities of hydrolytic enzymes were determined from freshly sampled sediment layers using 4-methylumbelliferyl (MUF)
or 7-amino-4-methylcoumarin-conjugated model compounds and kinetic fluorescence measurements. Physiologically active bacteria
from different sediment layers were microscopically visualized by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). Specific bacteria were identified by 16S rRNA gene amplification and sequencing.
Results and Discussion The PCDD/F congener profile was dominated by dibenzofurans. In addition, the presence of specific tetra and pentachlorinated
dibenzofurans supported the assumption that extensive magnesium production was one possible source for the high contamination.
A range of other chloroorganic compounds, including several isomers of chlorobenzenes, hexachlorocyclohexane and 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis
(p-chloro-phenyl)ethane (DDT), was present in the sediment. Activities of extracellular hydrolytic enzymes showed a strong
decrease in those sediment layers that were characterized by high contents of absorbable organic halogen (AOX), indicating
disturbed organic matter decay. Interestingly, an abnormal increase of cellulolytic enzyme activities below the organochlorine-rich
layers was observed, possibly caused by residual cellulose from discharges of sulfite pulping wastes. FISH revealed physiologically
active bacteria in most sediment layers from the surface down to the depth of about 60 cm, including members of Desulfitobacterium (D.) and Sulfurospirillum. The presence of D. dehalogenans was confirmed by its partial 16S rRNA gene sequence.
Conclusions Results of chemical sediment analyses demonstrated high loads of organochlorine compounds, particularly of PCDD/F. Several
years after stopping the waste water discharge to Spittelwasser creek, this sediment remains a main source for pollution of
the downstream river system by way of the ongoing mobilization of sediment during high floods. As indicated by our enzyme
activity measurements, the decomposition potential for organic matter is low in organochlorine-rich sediment layers. In contrast,
the comparably higher enzyme activities in less organochlorine-polluted sediment layers as well as the presence of physiologically
active bacteria suggest a considerable potential for natural attenuation.
Recommendations and Perspectives From our data we strongly recommend to explore the degradative capacity of sediment microorganisms and the limits for in situ activity towards specific sediment pollutants in more detail. This will give a sound basis for the integration of bioremediation
approaches into general concepts to reduce the risk that permanently radiates from this highly contaminated sediment.
Submission Editor: Dr. Henner Hollert (Henner.Hollert@urz.uniheidelberg.de) 相似文献
5.
Anne Ingeborg Myhr Terje Traavik 《Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics》2003,16(3):227-247
Risk governance of GM plants and GMfood products is presently subject to heatedscientific and public controversies. Scientistsand representatives of the biotechnologyindustry have dominated debates concerningsafety issues. The public is suspicious withregard to the motives of scientists, companies,and political institutions involved. Thedilemmas posed are nested, embracing valuequestions, scientific uncertainty, andcontextual issues. The obvious lack of data andinsufficient information concerning ecologicaleffects call for application of thePrecautionary Principle (PP). There are,however, divergent opinions among scientistsabout the relevance of putative hazards,definition of potential ``adverse effects,' andwhether actions should be taken to preventharm. The reliance on the concept ofsubstantial equivalence in safety evaluation ofGM food is equally controversial. Consequently,value assumptions embedded in a scientificframework may be a barrier for employment ofthe PP. One of our major conclusions is thatprecautionary GMP usage requires riskassessment criteria yet undeveloped, as well asbroader and more long-term conceptions of risk,uncertainty, and ignorance. Conflicts ofinterest and public participation are otherissues that need to be taken intoconsideration. GMP governance regimes that arejustifiable from a precautionary and ethicalpoint of view must transcend traditionalscientific boundaries to include alternativescientific perspectives as well as publicinvolvement. 相似文献
6.
7.
通过对变流量冷冻水系统的分析指出,在运用平衡调温调湿方式的空调系统中,应用变流量冷冻水系统可以较大地节约能源和投资;并提出了实现这种应用的方法。 相似文献
8.
Nugraha E. Suyatma Alain Copinet Lan Tighzert Veronique Coma 《Journal of Polymers and the Environment》2004,12(1):1-6
Biodegradable film blends of chitosan with poly(lactic acid) (PLA) were prepared by solution mixing and film casting. The main goal of these blends is to improve the water vapor barrier of chitosan by blending it with a hydrophobic biodegradable polymer from renewable resources. Mechanical properties of obtained films were assessed by tensile test. Thermal properties, water barrier properties, and water sensitivity were studied by differential scanning calorimeter analysis, water vapor permeability measurements, and surface-angle contact tests, respectively. The incorporation of PLA to chitosan improved the water barrier properties and decreased the water sensitivity of chitosan film. However, the tensile strength and elastic modulus of chitosan decreased with the addition of PLA. Mechanical and thermal properties revealed that chitosan and PLA blends are incompatible, consistent with the results of Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) analysis that showed the absence of specific interaction between chitosan and PLA. 相似文献
9.
10.
Brent J. Dalzell Prasanna H. Gowda David J. Mulla 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2004,40(2):533-543
ABSTRACT: This paper studies the effectiveness of alternative farm management strategies at improving water quality to meet Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) in agricultural watersheds. A spatial process model was calibrated using monthly flow, sediment, and phosphorus (P) losses (1994 to 1996) from Sand Creek watershed in south‐central Minnesota. Statistical evaluation of predicted and observed data gave r2 coefficients of 0.75, 0.69, and 0.49 for flow (average 4.1 m3/s), sediment load (average 0.44 ton/ha), and phosphorus load (average 0.97 kg/ha), respectively. The calibrated model was used to evaluate the effects of conservation tillage, conversion of crop land to pasture, and changes in phosphorus fertilizer application rate on pollutant loads. TMDLs were developed for sediment and P losses based on existing water quality standards and guidelines. Observed annual sediment and P losses exceeded these TMDLs by 59 percent and 83 percent, respectively. A combination of increased conservation tillage, reduced application rates of phosphorus fertilizer, and conversion of crop land to pasture could reduce sediment and phosphorus loads by 23 percent and 20 percent of existing loads, respectively. These reductions are much less than needed to meet TMDLs, suggesting that control of sediment using buffer strips and control of point sources of phosphorus are needed for the remaining reductions. 相似文献