航空弹射救生安全的多层次模糊综合评估

为了定量评估航空兵部队的弹射救生安全性,本文通过对各种典型弹射救生事故的研究,系统地分析了影响弹射救生安全的各种因素,构建了弹射救生安全评估指标体系,建立了弹射救生安全的多层次模糊综合评估模型,并应用该模型对某飞行团的弹射救生安全进行了定量计算和评估,评估结果验证了该模型能够客观地反映航空兵部队的弹射救生安全状况。该研究可为航空兵部队的弹射救生安全管理提供理论依据。     

化工园区地震Na-Tech事件快速风险评估方法

为有效评估地震灾害与化工园区工业事故的耦合风险,在分析地震灾害作用于化工园区致灾特征的基础上,理清化工园区的主要承灾体类型,辨识出地震破坏承灾体单元后引发的火灾、爆炸、中毒等工业事故的主要影响因素,采用层次分析法(AHP),提出综合考虑地震灾害与工业事故耦合作用的Na-Tech事件快速风险评估方法。该方法以化工园区企业为评估单位,根据评估结果划定企业Na-Tech事件风险等级,并将此方法应用于某化工园区企业的风险评估。结果表明:该方法可操作性强,计算所需数据量小,且能有效反映地震Na-Tech事件风险特点。     

基于PCA改进层次分析法的多目标大型货物运输通道选择*

为提高大型货物运输通道选择科学性,通过分析大型货物运输影响因素,建立大型货物运输通道选择指标评价体系,采用PCA法改进层次分析法,构建多目标大型货物运输通道选择决策模型,有效避免决策目标间信息重复利用。结果表明:优化后的决策模型可有效避免建模过程中对决策目标间信息重复利用,为大型货物运输通道线路方案决策提供依据。     

基于模糊综合评判方法的沉船风险预警

为有效预防沉船引发进一步的危害,基于模糊综合评判方法建立了沉船风险预警模型。通过对历史事故的统计分析,识别出沉船风险主要包括通航安全风险、环境污染风险和经济社会风险。基于系统工程的思想,确定了沉船风险的主要构成要素为沉船、沉船所在区域和周边自然环境。通过汇总专家经验和历史数据,确定了沉船风险预警指标体系并进行了分级量化,并运用层次分析法(AHP)确定了各指标的权重。以我国水域部分历史沉船为例进行验证,结果表明,应用该模型能迅速有效地开展沉船风险预警,并且得出的评估结论与历史操作经验比较吻合。     

基于W-R-SHEL的露天矿山运输系统风险因素研究

露天矿山运输系统事故原因涉及人、机、环、管等多个环节。基于运输系统复杂、高事故率这一实际情况,以人为因素作为风险因素的分析中心,在总结传统人为风险因素辨识模型存在不足的基础上,提出基于工作分解结构(WBS)与R-SHEL相结合的风险因素辨识模型。将模型具体应用在国内某大型铝土矿山运输系统风险因素研究中,确定5个一级因素指标、13个二级因素指标及40个三级因素指标,采用三级标度IAHP与模糊(fuzzy)相结合的方法实现指标体系中风险因素的综合评判,得出综合评判结果与现场实际情况基本相符。     

Bridging the gaps for global sustainable development: A quantitative analysis

Global human progress occurs in a complex web of interactions between society, technology and the environment as driven by governance and infrastructure management capacity among nations. In our globalizing world, this complex web of interactions over the last 200 years has resulted in the chronic widening of economic and political gaps between the haves and the have-nots with consequential global cultural and ecosystem challenges. At the bottom of these challenges is the issue of resource limitations on our finite planet with increasing population. The problem is further compounded by pleasure-driven and poverty-driven ecological depletion and pollution by the haves and the have-nots respectively. These challenges are explored in this paper as global sustainable development (SD) quantitatively; in order to assess the gaps that need to be bridged.Although there has been significant rhetoric on SD with very many qualitative definitions offered, very few quantitative definitions of SD exist. The few that do exist tend to measure SD in terms of social, energy, economic and environmental dimensions. In our research, we used several human survival, development, and progress variables to create an aggregate SD parameter that describes the capacity of nations in three dimensions: social sustainability, environmental sustainability and technological sustainability. Using our proposed quantitative definition of SD and data from relatively reputable secondary sources, 132 nations were ranked and compared.Our comparisons indicate a global hierarchy of needs among nations similar to Maslow's at the individual level. As in Maslow's hierarchy of needs, nations that are struggling to survive are less concerned with environmental sustainability than advanced and stable nations. Nations such as the United States, Canada, Finland, Norway and others have higher SD capacity, and thus, are higher on their hierarchy of needs than nations such as Nigeria, Vietnam, Mexico and other developing nations. To bridge such gaps, we suggest that global public policy for local to global governance and infrastructure management may be necessary. Such global public policy requires holistic development strategies in contrast to the very simplistic north–south, developed–developing nations dichotomies.     

Implementing Participatory Decision Making in Forest Planning

Forest policy decisions are often a source of debate, conflict, and tension in many countries. The debate over forest land-use decisions often hinges on disagreements about societal values related to forest resource use. Disagreements on social value positions are fought out repeatedly at local, regional, national, and international levels at an enormous social cost. Forest policy problems have some inherent characteristics that make them more difficult to deal with. On the one hand, forest policy decisions involve uncertainty, long time scales, and complex natural systems and processes. On the other hand, such decisions encompass social, political, and cultural systems that are evolving in response to forces such as globalization. Until recently, forest policy was heavily influenced by the scientific community and various economic models of optimal resource use. However, growing environmental awareness and acceptance of participatory democracy models in policy formulation have forced the public authorities to introduce new participatory mechanisms to manage forest resources. Most often, the efforts to include the public in policy formulation can be described using the lower rungs of Arnstein’s public participation typology. This paper presents an approach that incorporates stakeholder preferences into forest land-use policy using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). An illustrative case of regional forest-policy formulation in Australia is used to demonstrate the approach. It is contended that applying the AHP in the policy process could considerably enhance the transparency of participatory process and public acceptance of policy decisions.     

基于模糊层次分析法的反恐装备体系作战效能评估

目的 评估反恐装备体系作战效能,找准与“国际一流反恐特战劲旅”的差距,为反恐装备体系建设发展方向提供理论支撑。方法 从反恐任务出发,提出了基于“六种能力”为目标的反恐装备体系,建立了反恐装备体系作战效能评估指标体系,运用模糊层次分析法（FAHP）确定指标体系权重,设立定性指标、建立模糊评判矩阵。结果 反恐装备体系的作战效能E=76.267,评估结果为一般,符合部队实际。结论 虽然反恐部队编配了不少的先进装备,但指挥控制、精确打击、排爆等装备的技术性能还要不断提高,评估结果与实际情况符合。     

埋地燃气管道风险程度的多层次模糊评价方法

针对埋地燃气管道的风险评估,结合影响埋地燃气管道风险因素众多的特点,运用工程模糊数学理论,建立了埋地燃气管道风险程度的多层次模糊评价方法,确定了影响管道风险的基本因素。考虑了各类因素以及同类因素间的模糊性,并给出了因素类及因素间权重的计算方法。据此,可对埋地燃气管道的风险程度进行评价,从而有利于针对风险较高的管段采取行之有效的措施,防止事故的发生。     

城市功能等级体系划分研究--以我国市区非农业人口大于100万的城市为例

用人口规模来进行城市等级划分不能反映实际结果.依据城市政治、经济、科教文化、交通运输及旅游功能,选取了一些相关指标,利用多指标加权求和法对城市进行功能等级体系划分,并用此方法对我国城市非农业人口大于100万的城市进行了实证研究,提出了一些建议.