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991.
    
A new approach was developed to evaluate the implications of the spatiotemporal variability of green vegetation for the dispersion of livestock that is required to access quality forage in semi-arid Africa. Maximum NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) at 1 km2 resolution was determined for concentric rings (0–31 km radii) around 227 individual sample locations within the study area for 14 dates (between 1 April to 1 November) annually over the 2000–2010 period. A sigmoidal curve was fitted to points within the maximum NDVI × distance radii space to determine the asymptote distance (AD) – the radius at which further dispersion from the sample location does not lead to significant gains in access to green forage. AD was found to: increase with latitude (or increasing aridity); decline as the rainy season proceeds; and show no trend over the 2000–2010 period. These results introduce much-needed empirical data to current debates surrounding the scales of governance to support livestock mobility.  相似文献   
992.
    
A common claim is that emerging and future climate change is rendering traditional conceptions of uncertainty and risk obsolete. This is because a changing climate makes it quite a challenge to calculate uncertainties, establishing the measurable uncertainty as the basis for quantifying risk. Approaches that are capable of accommodating and possibly countering the wickedness caused by increasing uncertainty are necessary, the argument holds. Following up on previous studies of learning–knowledge and adapting to a changing climate, this article provides an analysis of how differences in the understanding of uncertainty and risk inform and determine governmental adaptation policies and actions of the local and central government in Norway, also discussing governance implications. The study finds that the understanding of uncertainty and risk generally is poor at the local level, but better at the state level, especially among highly educated staff with a background in, for example, natural sciences and engineering. On the other hand, a traditional understanding of uncertainty and risk is dominating: seeking to establish measurable uncertainty as a basis for quantifying risk. The article discusses combining different approaches of uncertainty and risk, thereby introducing a broader basis for governance, also implying multi-level network governance. On the one hand, this may help the local–central government in handling wicked problems of adapting to a changing climate but on other hand, it also possibly nurture struggles between different knowledge bases and stakeholder interest, thereby fuelling the wickedness of adaptation policies.  相似文献   
993.
Based on community data (2012, 2020) of the Tianlong Mountain evergreen and deciduous broadleaved mixed forest plot in central Guizhou, China, the species composition, importance value index, diversity, and dynamic changes were estimated to explore the renewal and change characteristics of karst secondary forests. The results showed that: (1) the number of individual species in the investigated two hm2 plot encompassing 33 families and 55 genera, totaling 69 species decreased from 10 276 to 7837. Five families, 10 genera, and 18 species were newly added, while seven families, nine genera, and 11 species disappeared. The difference between the importance value indices of the species was obvious; that of Lithocarpus confinis (20.97–23.26) was much higher than that of other species. Except for some species, the overall inter-annual differences were not large, and the status of mesophytic and shaded species has increased. Life forms were dominated by small trees and shrubs or small trees, and the plant number density of different life forms is reduced. (2) The Margalef and Shannon-Wiener indices of shrubs were the largest, and the Pielou indices of shrubs or small trees were the largest. The composition of most life forms has increased; the diversity became richer; and the uniform distribution of individual species has increased, but the change was small. (3) With respect to the spatial distribution pattern, the species were generally clustered, and only a few were randomly distributed. The Cx, I, m*, CA, and G indices of the species were reduced, and those of some species were quite different. A tendency for aggregated distribution was observed over random distribution, but the aggregation degree of Lithocarpus sphaerocephala was still high. The PAI index of most species increased but was not obvious, whereas the K value changed irregularly. Overall, the species composition, importance value index, diversity, and spatial distribution pattern of the main species in this community have changed to some extent but without any significant fluctuations. L. sphaerocephala was still the dominant species in succession, and the species composition of the flora was stable. The restoration of vegetation and the development of the entire community are slow. © 2022 Science Press. All rights reserved.  相似文献   
994.
    
There has been considerable research on North–South issues on climate change; however, little work has been done on how the recent discovery of oil in some developing countries could affect North–South relations, the prospects for development for the South, climate change and local socio-environmental issues. Using the theory of inclusive development, the concept of the Right to Development, and their relation to stranded assets, this paper addresses the question: what does inclusive development imply at the national and global level in dealing with oil extraction in the context of climate change? Based on a literature review and a layered case study of Kenya, this paper concludes that (a) Kenyans argue that Kenya has a right to extract and use oil resources and that rich countries should reduce their extraction and use; (b) such a claim could be integrated in an appropriate emissions trading scheme; and that (c) Kenya should also account for the national and local socioecological aspects to reduce potential local conflict, yet the conditions favoring inclusive development are not yet established. However, such an argument may also lead to perverse results. If addressing climate change requires phasing out fossil fuels, this argument may lead to stranded assets in both developed and developing countries, and may ironically leave developing countries poorer off as stranded assets are possibly more expensive than having stranded resources.  相似文献   
995.
    
The ecological impacts of extreme climatic events on population dynamics and community composition are profound and predominantly negative. Using extensive data of an ecological model system, we tested whether predictions from ecological models remain robust when environmental conditions are outside the bounds of observation. We observed a 10-fold demographic decline of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) metapopulation on the Åland islands, Finland in the summer of 2018 and used climatic and satellite data to demonstrate that this year was an anomaly with low climatic water balance values and low vegetation productivity indices across Åland. Population growth rates were strongly associated with spatiotemporal variation in climatic water balance. Covariates shown previously to affect the extinction probability of local populations in this metapopulation were less informative when populations were exposed to severe drought during the summer months. Our results highlight the unpredictable responses of natural populations to extreme climatic events.  相似文献   
996.
Sharp boundaries typically separate the salinity tolerant mangroves from the salinity intolerant hardwood hammock species, which occupy the similar geographical areas of southern Florida. Evidence of strong feedback between tree community-type and the salinity of the unsaturated (vadose) zone of the soil suggests that a severe disturbance that significantly tilts the salinity in the vadose zone might cause a shift from one vegetation type to the other. In this study, a model based upon the feedback dynamics between vegetation and salinity of the vadose zone of the soil was used to take account of storm surge events to investigate the mechanisms that by which this large-scale disturbance could affect the spatial pattern of hardwood hammocks and mangroves. Model simulation results indicated that a heavy storm surge that completely saturated the vadose zone at 30 ppt for 1 day could lead to a regime shift in which there is domination by mangroves of areas previously dominated by hardwood hammocks. Lighter storm surges that saturated the vadose zone at less than 7 ppt did not cause vegetation shifts. Investigations of model sensitivity analysis indicated that the thickness of the vadose zone, coupled with precipitation, influenced the residence time of high salinity in the vadose zone and therefore determined the rate of mangrove domination. The model was developed for a southern Florida coastal ecosystem, but its applicability may be much broader.  相似文献   
997.
This paper examines the long-term variation in zooplankton biomass in response to climatic and oceanic changes, using a neural network as a nonlinear multivariate analysis method. Zooplankton data collected from 1951 to 1990 off the shore of northeastern Japan were analyzed. We considered patterns of the Kuroshio and the Oyashio, sea surface temperature, and meteorological parameters as environmental factors that affect zooplankton biomass. Back propagation neural networks were trained to generate mapping functions between environmental variables and zooplankton biomass. The performance of the network models was tested by varying the numbers of input and hidden units. Changes in zooplankton biomass could be predicted from environmental conditions. The neural network yielded predictions with smaller errors than those of predictions determined by linear multiple regression. The sensitivity analysis of networks was used to extract predictive knowledge. The air pressure, sea surface temperature, and some indices of atmospheric circulation were the primary factors for predictions. The patterns of the Kuroshio and the Oyashio demonstrated different effects among sea areas.  相似文献   
998.
Abstract:  Recent episodes of coral bleaching have led to wide-scale loss of reef corals and raised concerns over the effectiveness of existing conservation and management efforts. The 1998 bleaching event was most severe in the western Indian Ocean, where coral declined by up to 90% in some locations. Using fisheries-independent data, we assessed the long-term impacts of this event on fishery target species in the Seychelles, the overall size structure of the fish assemblage, and the effectiveness of two marine protected areas (MPAs) in protecting fish communities. The biomass of fished species above the size retained in fish traps changed little between 1994 and 2005, indicating no current effect on fishery yields. Biomass remained higher in MPAs, indicating they were effective in protecting fish stocks. Nevertheless, the size structure of the fish communities, as described with size-spectra analysis, changed in both fished areas and MPAs, with a decline in smaller fish (<30 cm) and an increase in larger fish (>45 cm). We believe this represents a time-lag response to a reduction in reef structural complexity brought about because fishes are being lost through natural mortality and fishing, and are not being replaced by juveniles. This effect is expected to be greater in terms of fisheries productivity and, because congruent patterns are observed for herbivores, suggests that MPAs do not offer coral reefs long-term resilience to bleaching events. Corallivores and planktivores declined strikingly in abundance, particularly in MPAs, and this decline was associated with a similar pattern of decline in their preferred corals. We suggest that climate-mediated disturbances, such as coral bleaching, be at the fore of conservation planning for coral reefs.  相似文献   
999.
The emergent behaviors of nature are not only the sum of interactions among ecosystem parts but also depend on the organization of these interactions. Fire, climate and vegetation patterns produce non-linear fire propagation across the landscape. Environmental heterogeneity, like outcrop presence and hare density, increases landscape patchiness and makes possible the occupation of fire refuges by plants, like Fabiana imbricata shrubs. We monitored shrub recruitment and cover during nine postfire years in northwestern Patagonia grasslands and we studied the long-term population dynamics under different environmental conditions through a matrix model, exploring different fire frequencies and spring precipitation regimes. Both, the field monitoring and the model seem to confirm the relationships between shrub invasion and fire. The climate change forecast predicts an increase in the frequency of El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomena that could causes more coupled fires—rainy springs in northwestern Patagonia, and consequently, more recruitment windows for shrubs, like F. imbricata. The matrix model also indicates that this scenario would be the most favourable for shrub invasion. Our results contribute to the knowledge of the ecosystem properties and processes, providing useful information to improve the grasslands sustainable use.  相似文献   
1000.
Ecosystem function and resilience are compromised when habitats become fragmented due to land‐use change. This has led to national and international conservation strategies aimed at restoring habitat extent and improving functional connectivity (i.e., maintaining dispersal processes). However, biodiversity responses to landscape‐scale habitat creation and the relative importance of spatial and temporal scales are poorly understood, and there is disagreement over which conservation strategies should be prioritized. We used 160 years of historic post‐agricultural woodland creation as a natural experiment to evaluate biodiversity responses to habitat creation in a landscape context. Birds were surveyed in 101 secondary, broadleaf woodlands aged 10–160 years with ≥80% canopy cover and in landscapes with 0‐17% broadleaf woodland cover within 3000 m. We used piecewise structural equation modeling to examine the direct and indirect relationships between bird abundance and diversity, ecological continuity, patch characteristics, and landscape structure and quantified the relative conservation value of local and landscape scales for bird communities. Ecological continuity indirectly affected overall bird abundance and species richness through its effects on stand structure, but had a weaker influence (effect size near 0) on the abundance and diversity of species most closely associated with woodland habitats. This was probably because woodlands were rapidly colonized by woodland generalists in ≤10 years (minimum patch age) but were on average too young (median 50 years) to be colonized by woodland specialists. Local patch characteristics were relatively more important than landscape characteristics for bird communities. Based on our results, biodiversity responses to habitat creation depended on local‐ and landscape‐scale factors that interacted across time and space. We suggest that there is a need for further studies that focus on habitat creation in a landscape context and that knowledge gained from studies of habitat fragmentation and loss should be used to inform habitat creation with caution because the outcomes are not necessarily reciprocal.  相似文献   
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