An occupancy‐based quantification of the highly imperiled status of desert fishes of the southwestern United States

Desert fishes are some of the most imperiled vertebrates worldwide due to their low economic worth and because they compete with humans for water. An ecological complex of fishes, 2 suckers (Catostomus latipinnis, Catostomus discobolus) and a chub (Gila robusta) (collectively managed as the so‐called three species) are endemic to the U.S. Colorado River Basin, are affected by multiple stressors, and have allegedly declined dramatically. We built a series of occupancy models to determine relationships between trends in occupancy, local extinction, and local colonization rates, identify potential limiting factors, and evaluate the suitability of managing the 3 species collectively. For a historical period (1889–2011), top performing models (AICc) included a positive time trend in local extinction probability and a negative trend in local colonization probability. As flood frequency decreased post‐development local extinction probability increased. By the end of the time series, 47% (95% CI 34‐61) and 15% (95% CI 6‐33) of sites remained occupied by the suckers and the chub, respectively, and models with the 2 species of sucker as one group and the chub as the other performed best. For a contemporary period (2001?2011), top performing (based on AIC_c) models included peak annual discharge. As peak discharge increased, local extinction probability decreased and local colonization probability increased. For the contemporary period, results of models that split all 3 species into separate groups were similar to results of models that combined the 2 suckers but not the chub. Collectively, these results confirmed that declines in these fishes were strongly associated with water development and that relative to their historic distribution all 3 species have declined dramatically. Further, the chub was distinct in that it declined the most dramatically and therefore may need to be managed separately. Our modeling approach may be useful in other situations in which targeted data are sparse and conservation status and best management approach for multiple species are uncertain.     

On Uncertain Sightings and Inference about Extinction

The extinction of many species can only be inferred from the record of sightings of individuals. Solow et al. (2012, Uncertain sightings and the extinction of the Ivory‐billed Woodpecker. Conservation Biology 26: 180–184) describe a Bayesian approach to such inference and apply it to a sighting record of the Ivory‐billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis). A feature of this sighting record is that all uncertain sightings occurred after the most recent certain sighting. However, this appears to be an artifact. We extended this earlier work in 2 ways. First, we allowed for overlap in time between certain and uncertain sightings. Second, we considered 2 plausible statistical models of a sighting record. In one of these models, certain and uncertain sightings that are valid arise from the same process whereas in the other they arise from independent processes. We applied both models to the case of the Ivory‐billed Woodpecker. The result from the first model did not favor extinction, whereas the result for the second model did. This underscores the importance, in applying tests for extinction, of understanding what could be called the natural history of the sighting record. Sobre Avistamientos Inciertos e Inferencia de la Extinción     

CALPUFF模型研究中文文献统计与分析

以文献计量学方法,统计分析了2002年-2013年间中国知网学术文献总库、重庆维普资讯有限公司的中文科技期刊数据库、北京万方数据股份有限公司的中文科技期刊全文数据库中收录的所有CALPUFF模型研究相关的185篇文献,以期为CALPUFF模型的研究者提供参考。共有65种期刊刊登过CALPUFF模型研究相关文献,其中发表2篇以上的有17种,另有73．8％的期刊每刊只发表l篇这类文章;共有署名作者358位,这些作者隶属于134个机构,以高等院校、研究机构为最多。近几年国内对CALPUFF模型研究的关注度正在提高,与其它软件的耦合将是模型未来的发展趋势之一。     

矿产资源开发生态补偿文献综述及实践进展

矿产资源开发会造成严重的环境污染和生态破坏,影响矿区经济增长和居民生活,为了消除这种负外部性,必须给予相应的补偿。在概念界定的基础上,对矿产资源开发生态补偿的理论文献进行系统梳理,并对国内外实践进行总结。分析发现：现有研究在内容上尚存在一些不足之处,包括生态补偿契约设计问题、补偿资金分摊问题、差异化补偿标准问题、不同补偿模式交易成本测度及临界点问题等。这些问题是未来值得进一步深入研究的学术问题。我国矿产资源开发生态补偿起步较晚,在实践中暴露出一些问题,包括制度建设和监管体系等。相比较而言,美国、德国、英国等国家经过长期的实践,在法律体系建设、不同矿区分类补偿、进入和退出机制、资金保障制度、监管机制构建等方面具有丰富的经验,取得了非常好的效果。借鉴其他国家的先进经验,可以从几方面完善我国矿产资源开发生态补偿机制,包括健全法律法规体系、完善保证金制度、健全生态补偿税费制度、建立健全监管体系等。     

历史时期黄河流域城市空间格局演变与影响因素

研究历史时期黄河流域城市的空间格局演变,能够更好地理解人居环境的特点和发展脉络,对当今黄河流域生态保护、城镇发展有重要的现实价值。采用哈佛大学CHGIS数据库中城市时间序列数据,以及历史人口数据、流域和高程数据,通过实证分析,梳理黄河流域城市时空格局演变过程与影响因素。研究发现：（1）城市数量变化可划分为五个阶段。（2）一级延续稳定区,以今安阳为中心的河南北部城市高密集区和以今西安为中心的关中城市高密集区;以今济南、太原、洛阳为中心的次高密集区。二级延续稳定区分为五条重要的城市带,即渭河城市带、汾河城市带、鲁中山地北麓城市带、太行山东麓城市带及运河城市带。（3）城市重心迁移的平均距离为32 km,人口重心迁移的平均距离为95.78 km,城市和人口的分布有着较密切的联系。（4）气温、降水、高程、与河流的距离、黄河下游河道的变迁等自然因素,以及战争、都城转移和人工运河等人文因素共同影响了历史时期黄河流域城市的时空格局。     

Web GIS信息系统对在南京考古遗址中的地理环境影响研究

考古文献是历史地理研究中一个重要的数据来源,在互联网时代对纸质文本进行数字化并根据考古遗址的时空特点建立信息系统,具有重要的意义.针对考古遗址的空间位置不明确,考古遗址信息系统注重空间特性但缺乏对原始文献的重视,基于WebGIS、关系型数据库技术以及MVC系统架构,设计并实现了南京考古遗址信息系统.从考古文献中提取考古遗址各种属性信息,构建考古遗址时空数据库,基于WebGIS信息系统发布南京考古遗址,实现考古遗址的时空可视化以及各个遗址点相关文献的原文阅读.提出了一种将考古遗址信息从单一的文本展示到融合时空信息的多维信息展示的技术流程,并为研究南京的历史地理学者提供了便捷的考古遗址资料共享平台.     

Best‐practice recommendations for estimating interaction effects using meta‐analysis

One of the key advantages of meta‐analysis (i.e., a quantitative literature review) over a narrative literature review is that it allows for formal tests of interaction effects—namely, whether the relationship between two variables is contingent upon the value of another (moderator) variable. Interaction effects play a central role in organizational science research because they highlight boundary conditions of a theory: Conditions under which relationships change in strength and/or direction. This article describes procedures for estimating interaction effects using meta‐analysis, distills the technical literature for a general readership of organizational science researchers, and includes specific best‐practice recommendations regarding actions researchers can take before and after data collection to improve the accuracy of substantive conclusions regarding interaction effects investigated meta‐analytically. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Human Adaptation to Work in Two Different Climates

The processes of acclimation to hot-dry and to warm-humid climates were studied using two approaches: a quantitative analysis of literature data and an experimental study in the laboratory concerning the physiological parameters of heart rate, rectal temperature, sweat loss, and subjective assessment.

Analysis o f literature data: Data from 62 experiments with a total of 813 participants were pooled and recalculated. The experiments ranged from 6 to 24 days, air temperatures from 30.4 to 50.0°C, water vapor pressures from 1.5 to 6.5 kPa, and wet bulb globe temperatures (WBGT) from 27.4 to 38.6°C.

Laboratory studies: In the laboratory, 8 participants were acclimated during 15 consecutive days to a hot-dry climate and to a warm-humid climate, which were equivalent in terms of the WBGT (33.5 and 33.6°C, respectively). The participants walked four times for 25 min on a treadmill at a speed of 4 km/h. The hot-dry climate caused somewhat greater strain than the warm-humid condition. In the course of acclimation to the hot-dry climate, heart rate and rectal temperature started at higher levels, decreased slightly steeper but remained on a higher level throughout. Nevertheless, the differences between both thermal conditions were small, and both physiologic functions reached the point of acclimation almost at the same time under warm-humid and under hot-dry exposure. Sweat loss, which is not regarded as a valid predictor for acclimation, was considerably higher but increased less in the hot-dry than in the warm-humid climate.     

项目核准备案与环评审批衔接存在问题及对策

投资体制改革后项目核准备案与环评审批衔接过程中存在诸多问题,拟从政策、法律、部门配合等层面提出对策和建议。