两种老化温度对某型双基推进剂的热分解性能的影响

目的探索某型双基推进剂在85℃和95℃条件下的热分解性能随老化时间的变化趋势。方法采用恒温加速老化试验,并对老化不同时间的样品进行热重分析(TG)和差示扫描(DSC)试验。结果计算了其两种老化温度条件下的动力学参数。结论某型双基推进剂性能良好,与老化时间相比,老化温度对其性能影响较大。     

热磨试间火灾爆炸风险分析

采用层次分析法对热磨试间火灾爆炸风险进行分析,以某企业热磨试间内热磨合作业过程为例建立了评价模型。为提高层次分析法的准确性和有效性,在层次分析法之前,引入事故树,通过事故树确定各级指标,在层次分析法之后,通过与模糊数学相结合,对模型进行模糊评价,得出模型所处等级D=0.7087,即该企业热磨试间火灾爆炸风险为"危险性较大"等级。研究表明,"事故树-模糊层次分析法"应用于热磨试间火灾爆炸风险分析是可行的,有助于企业有针对性地制定安全措施,预防热磨试间火灾爆炸事故的发生。     

主体功能区划下经济-人口协调障碍及对策研究

通过对影响我国经济-人口协调的主要因素进行分析，找出在人口系统福利与经济系统福利方面的冲突环节和发展障碍，从市场体制、人口管理体制、财税体制、领导干部政绩评价制度等方面寻找成因，提出切实可行的对策建议，为我国主体功能区经济-人口协调发展提供参考。     

ESTIMATION OF REGIONAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM ARID AND SEMI-ARID SURFACES1

ABSTRACT: Evapotranspiration (ET) from oasis and Gobi surfaces in the Heihe River region of China was estimated by Kotoda (1986) and Advection-Aridity (Brutsaert and Stricker, 1979) models. The ET estimates were compared with eddy-correlation ET estimates. The ET estimated by both models are in good agreement with ET obtained by means of eddy-correlation method for the oasis surface while underestimating ET as compared to the eddy-correlation method. For the Gobi surface, the models yielded obviously overestimates of evapotranspiration. In order to estimate evapotranspiration from arid surfaces, the Kotoda model was modified by introducing the surface moisture availability parameter a from Barton (1979). The modified Kotoda model yielded ET estimates that were very close to that from the eddy-correlation method for the Gobi surface. The modified Kotoda model was used to estimate evapotranspiration from the Heihe River watershed, an area with complicated topography and land use, and the results compared with those from a water balance method. A sensitivity analysis of the modified model was performed. The results show that the modified Kotoda model can reflect the relationship between the actual evapotranspiration and the main controlling factors on it for both wet and arid surfaces reasonably. From this study, it can be concluded that the modified Kotoda model is applicable fro the estimation of regional evapotranspiration from areas with complicated topography and land use.     

京津冀晋鲁区域气溶胶光学厚度的时空特征

利用2000年3月至2013年12月MODIS Level 3遥感反演大气气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)产品数据,分析近年来京津冀晋鲁区域AOD的时空分布和变化特征.结果表明:1从时变特征来看,近14年来全区年平均AOD值在0.428~0.550之间变化,年际间变化浮动大,因此多年平均增长率并不高,仅呈微弱增长趋势;以2008年为界可将近14年的AOD变化分为呈明显上升趋势的第一阶段(2000—2007年,增长率为1.349%)以及呈明显下降趋势的第二阶段(2008—2013年,增长率为-1.483%);全区四季AOD多年变化除夏季呈微弱下降趋势,其它3季均为上升趋势,冬季增长率最大;夏季AOD最高,但有回落的趋势,冬季AOD最低,但有上升的趋势.2从空间分布特征来看,全区多年AOD空间分布大体上呈南高北低的格局,河北和山东的西南部为高值区(AOD为0.72),河北和山西的北边为低值区(AOD为0.23),北京和天津则处于中上水平(AOD为0.58);全区四季AOD空间分布呈现出强烈的季节变化,春季较高,夏季最高,进入秋季显著降低,冬季则最低,冬季到来年春季呈跳跃性增高.这些结果有助于京津冀晋鲁区域的气候变化和环境研究.     

京津冀生态环境协同保护立法的基本问题

京津冀生态环境的协同保护需要立法推动,因此,有必要制定《京津冀区域生态环境协同保护条例》或者《京津冀区域国土保护与整治条例》及配套的办法。在基本原则方面,可建立一体化保护、以环境质量管理为核心、功能与用途管制、共同但有区别责任等原则。在监管体制方面,可由国务院成立实体性的区域协同发展委员会。 在制度机制方面,可采取统一的环境规划、环境标准、总量控制、环评、监测与预警应急、生态补偿等措施。在法治架构方面,要建立一体化的环境市场、信息公开、公众参与、执法监管等体系。该立法的制定要符合以下标准:定位要精准,立法目的要明确;思路要清晰,措施的层次要分明;制度可实施,协同的措施要实际;原则要坚持,采取的手段可灵活;权利要公平,赋予的义务要均衡;实施可监督,失职的责任能追究。     

哈尔滨地区农业面源污染负荷估算与分析

为分析哈尔滨地区农业面源污染的形势和特征,根据哈尔滨市2002 2012年的农业统计资料,利用输出系数模型估算了该地区农业面源污染总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)年输出负荷.对估算结果分不同污染源、种植类型、畜禽种类进行了分析.结果表明:TN和TP的年输出总负荷基本呈逐年增加的趋势;影响该地区农业面源污染的主要因素为土地利用,其中,农业种植用地是TN、TP负荷的最大贡献者;畜禽养殖的污染贡献仅次于农业土地利用;由农村居民生活带来的面源污染也不容忽视.因此,哈尔滨地区农业面源污染形势不容乐观,必须大力开展防控工作,以改善该地区农业面源污染日益严重的趋势.     

Unveiling soil degradation and desertification risk in the Mediterranean basin: a data mining analysis of the relationships between biophysical and socioeconomic factors in agro-forest landscapes

Soil degradation and desertification processes in the Mediterranean basin reflect the interplay between environmental and socioeconomic drivers. An approach to evaluate comparatively the multiple relationships between biophysical variables and socioeconomic factors is illustrated in the present study using the data collected from 586 field sites located in five Mediterranean areas (Spain, Greece, Turkey, Tunisia and Morocco). A total of 47 variables were chosen to illustrate land-use, farm characteristics, population pressure, tourism development, rainfall regime, water availability, soil properties and vegetation cover, among others. A data mining approach incorporating non-parametric inference, principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering was developed to identify candidate syndromes of soil degradation and desertification risk. While field sites in the same study area showed a substantial similarity, the multivariate relationship among variables diverged among study areas. Data mining techniques proved to be a practical tool to identify spatial determinants of soil degradation and desertification risk. Our findings identify the contrasting spatial patterns for biophysical and socioeconomic variables, in turn associated with different responses to land degradation.     

Accuracy Assessment of NOAA Gridded Daily Reference Evapotranspiration for the Texas High Plains

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides daily reference evapotranspiration (ET_ref) maps for the contiguous United States using climatic data from North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). This data provides large‐scale spatial representation of ET_ref, which is essential for regional scale water resources management. Data used in the development of NOAA daily ET_ref maps are derived from observations over surfaces that are different from short (grass — ET_os) or tall (alfalfa — ET_rs) reference crops, often in nonagricultural settings, which carries an unknown discrepancy between assumed and actual conditions. In this study, NOAA daily ET_os and ET_rs maps were evaluated for accuracy, using observed data from the Texas High Plains Evapotranspiration (TXHPET) network. Daily ET_os, ET_rs and the climatic data (air temperature, wind speed, and solar radiation) used for calculating ET_ref were extracted from the NOAA maps for TXHPET locations and compared against ground measurements on reference grass surfaces. NOAA ET_ref maps generally overestimated the TXHPET observations (1.4 and 2.2 mm/day ET_os and ET_rs, respectively), which may be attributed to errors in the NLDAS modeled air temperature and wind speed, to which reference ET_ref is most sensitive. Therefore, a bias correction to NLDAS modeled air temperature and wind speed data, or adjustment to the resulting NOAA ET_ref, may be needed to improve the accuracy of NOAA ET_ref maps.     

北京市密云水库上游金矿区土壤稀土元素的地球化学特征

采集了密云水库上游金矿区的34个土壤表层样品,用电感耦合等离子体质谱法(ICP-MS)测定了土壤稀土元素含量,研究了土壤不同粒级中稀土元素的分布特征,并对土壤稀土元素含量分布的影响因素、累积效应、配分模式及分馏特征进行了分析和探讨。结果表明:金矿区土壤稀土元素总量∑REE略高于中国大陆土壤∑REE背景值。随着颗粒粒径的减少,稀土元素及总有机碳(TOC)含量均逐渐增加。相关性分析表明,各稀土元素均表现出相似的相关性,与全量元素Li、V、Co、Ga、Rb、Cs呈正相关,与Cu、Cd、Pb及pH呈负相关,与TOC呈显著正相关;土壤pH、有机质和矿物质成分与稀土元素含量分布密切相关。累积因子(AF)分析表明,稀土元素在粘粒级(0~2μm)、粉砂粒级(2~50μm)中表现出显著的累积效应,这是由于微细颗粒比表面积较大,次生矿物及有机质含量较高。经球粒陨石标准化后,各粒级稀土元素总体配分曲线相近,均表现为Ce无异常,Eu明显亏损,50μm的粗粒级Eu亏损较细粒级更为严重。土壤轻重稀土分馏程度关系为:砂粒级(50~350μm)粉砂粒级(2~50μm)粘粒级(0~2μm)。该研究结论将为选取稀土元素作为示踪剂提供科学依据,并为不同粒级中稀土元素的进一步研究提供一定的参考价值。