基于模糊贝叶斯网络的煤气化职业健康风险分析

针对煤气化行业职业健康风险影响因素不确定及模糊的特点,建立了职业健康风险计算模型。该模型将模糊数学与贝叶斯网络相耦合,模拟事件概率,找出导致风险的主要因素。通过分析煤气化行业中存在的多种风险因素,应用问卷调查法和模糊集理论模拟了根节点的发生概率,得出职业健康风险概率的预测值;应用贝叶斯网络反向推理的功能计算根节点后验概率并排序,确定了薄弱环节。该模型不仅能解决概率缺失情况下的风险量化推算问题,定量进行职业健康风险评估,还可以实现关键因素的识别,并能有针对性地提出改进措施,为职业健康风险预防提供决策依据。     

固态排渣煤粉炉NOx产生浓度影响因素偏相关分析

利用第一次全国污染源普查“火力发电行业产排污系数核算”工作中现场监测得到的数据,首次采用偏相关分析的方法,对固态排渣煤粉炉中机组规模、空气过剩系数、煤中挥发分和发电负荷率等因素对NOx产生浓度的影响进行定性分析,结论：NOx产生浓度与前三种因素存在显著的相关。而与发电负荷率的关系受锅炉是否采用低氮燃烧技术的影响。空气过剩系数越大,煤的挥发分越高,NOx产生浓度越低;采用低氮燃烧装置的锅炉中,机组规模越大,产生的NOx越少,且对于同一锅炉来说,NOx产生浓度随着发电负荷率的升高而增大;未采用燃烧控制的锅炉中,机组规模越大,NOx产生浓度越高,且与发电负荷率不相关。根据分析结果,提出了控制燃煤电厂固态排渣煤粉炉NOx排放的优化措施和建议。     

Relationship between cultivated land use functions and land rental behavior of rural households: empirical evidence from different dominant functional regions in central China

This paper analyzes the relationship between the cultivated land use functions and the land rental decisions of rural households in three Dominant Functional Zones of Hubei, China. The results indicate that 41.10% of the rural households in the study areas participated in the land rental market. The land rental market in the Key Development Zone has both a higher participation rate and land rent; the Agricultural Production Zone has a higher participation rate but a lower land rent; and the land rental market in the Key Ecological Zone is underdeveloped. The difference in regional function and economic level leads to a significant difference in the spatial variation of the cultivated land use multifunction. Overall, the cultivated land function of rural households has a significant impact on their land transfer behavior. The higher the Functions of Economic Contribution, Food Production, and Pension & Employment, the more willing the rural households are to rent in the land, while the higher the Function of Inheritance and Retainment of the cultivated land use, the more likely the peasants are to retain their cultivated land resources. Furthermore, the correlation coefficient is significantly higher in the Key Development Zone than in the Key Ecological Zone.     

煤与瓦斯突出冲击波及瓦斯气流所致伤害研究

为揭示煤与瓦斯突出过程中冲击波及瓦斯气流传播特性,针对这种突出做功随瓦斯压力、煤的普氏系数和煤的放散初速度变化的特征,运用气体动力学理论,建立冲击波超压、冲击瓦斯流速度与传播距离以及煤层瓦斯压力等参数的关系,计算不同超压下瓦斯气流传播伤害的范围。理论计算与现场测试结果表明,突出冲击波属惰性弱冲击波;波阵面上的超压传播伤害距离与突出时瓦斯膨胀的强度、巷道断面及巷道壁面的摩擦力和局部阻力等因素有关;冲击产生的高压瓦斯气流是造成巷道内大量人员窒息伤亡的主要诱因;突出能量瞬间释放没有补给,冲击波及瓦斯气流会在巷道阻力等因素作用下迅速衰减。     

深井动压影响下山煤巷围岩变形机理与控制研究

以刘桥一矿Ⅱ66回风下山为工程背景,采用现场实测、实验室实验、数值模拟和工业性试验综合分析了下山煤巷非对称变形破坏机理,提出动压影响下深井软弱煤巷围岩多层次组合控制理论,并给出优化控制措施。研究表明:回风下山变形失稳严重并呈非对称性,围岩完整性较差,强度低。地应力实测显示,回风下山处于高原岩应力区,最大主应力为水平应力且具有明显方向性,与巷道轴线夹角为71°,断面顶底板剪切破坏风险较大;数值模拟显示,回风下山开拓延伸期间,受邻近轨道下山、辅助下山影响显著,4煤回采对其影响较小,6煤工作面回采是下山煤巷非对称失稳的主要诱因;提出以围岩深浅孔注浆为核心,以新型注浆锚索、锚杆为装备基础的高阻让压全断面组合控制理论,并给出具体优化方案。工业性试验显示,下山煤巷围岩变形得到有效控制。     

Geochemical Characteristics of the Acid Mine Drainage in the Water System in the Vicinity of the Dogye Coal Mine in Korea

This study investigated geochemical characteristics of the acid mine drainage (AMD) discharged from the abandoned mine adits in the vicinity of the Dogye coal mine in Korea. Acid mine drainage discharged from Jeoncha pit adit of the Dogye coal mine, which is the main source of the AMD in the study area, had a pH value of 3.0 and concentrations of 2148mg SO₄ ^2– L^–1, 229mg Fe L^–1, 71mg A1 L^–1 and 11mg Mn L^–1. The reduction of some metal concentrations downstream from the discharge point could be explained on the basis of dilution and precipitation. The order of removal of metal ions downstream from the discharge point was Fe>A1, Cu>Zn, Mn. Acidity could be used as a good determining factor offering comprehensive and quantitative values for the polluting extent of acid mine drainage. The acidities existing in all acidic water samples in the Gunahan district originated primarily from mineral acidity, especially in the upper Nahan Creek from dissolved Fe and Al and in the middle and down Nahan Creek from dissolved Al. From the application of the WATEQ4F program, it was determined that predominant species of dissolved Fe in all water samples was Fe²⁺, and those of dissolved Al were AlSO₄ ⁺ and Al³⁺ except for IW2 sample which was associated with white precipitates. The species of dissolved Al in IW2 sample include also AlOH²⁺ and Al(OH)₂ ⁺. The saturation indices of goethite and haematite were positive in the water samples associated with ochrous precipitates (usually called Yellow Boy), therefore these solids might be precipitated. For the IW2 sample, the saturation indices of amorphous Al(OH)₃ and gibbsite were positive, so theoretically these solids might also be precipitated. By XRD analysis, it was found that goethite occurs in ochrous precipitates, and gibbsite in white precipitates.     

煤与瓦斯突出的物理模拟和数值模拟研究

利用自行设计的实验装置,通过现场采集具有突出倾向的煤样,分别向实验装置煤样中充入吸附能力较大的CO2和吸附能力较小的N2来模拟不同级别的煤与瓦斯突出现象,物理试验结果表明:瓦斯压力越大,突出强度越大;当瓦斯压力相近时,吸附和解吸能力大的瓦斯突出强度大。通过数值模拟对煤与瓦斯突出进行研究,数值模拟再现了煤矿开采过程中诱发的煤与瓦斯突出全过程,同时验证了煤与瓦斯突出是瓦斯压力、地应力及煤岩体的力学性质综合作用的结果,该验证对进一步深入理解认识煤与瓦斯突出的机理具有重要的理论和实践意义。     

煤矿安全生产中人的行为影响因子系统动力学(SD)仿真分析

在构建影响人的安全行为因素因果关系的基础上,运用系统动力学(SD)理论和方法,对影响人的安全行为关键因素进行动态预测,并通过仿真计算、对比分析安全投入增加对系统安全水平的影响。应用该方法建立的煤矿生产中人的安全行为指标水平模型,以求证安全投入与人的安全行为水平的相关性,为煤矿安全管理决策提供一种新的思路,亦有助于政府和煤矿企业科学地明确安全投入方向,降低人因事故率,提高煤矿生产的安全水平。     

基于蒙特卡罗法的煤巷锚杆支护结构可靠性分析

应用工程结构可靠性理论,建立煤巷锚杆支护结构可靠性模型,针对其结构稳定性的极限状态功能函数高度非线性的特征,采用蒙特卡罗法在Matlab环境下直接产生服从各相应概率分布函数的随机变量数组计算其结构可靠度,编程过程简化,计算速度快,精度高,且不受极限状态方程非线性、随机变量非正态的限制,开辟了煤巷锚杆支护结构可靠度计算的新途径。建立了支护参数与可靠度的关系,指出了提高煤巷锚杆支护结构可靠度的方法和措施,为煤巷锚杆支护参数设计和优化提供了科学依据。     

甲烷-煤尘复合火焰的传播与温度特征

为了揭示甲烷-煤尘复合体系的燃烧特征,利用高速摄像机、超细热电偶、显微镜头等对管道内甲烷-煤尘复合火焰的传播过程及其温度特征进行了试验研究.结果表明,随着煤尘浓度的增加,甲烷-煤尘复合火焰的最高温度及传播速度呈现先增大后减小的趋势; 对于甲烷-煤尘复合火焰,粒径较大的煤尘在较小的浓度达到最高温度,而粒径较小的煤尘则需要在较大的浓度达到最高温度.