NORMALIZED AGRICULTURAL PRICES AND WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: Short-term fluctuations in agricultural markets necesitate adjustments in market prices for use in water resources planning. Two procudures for this price normalizing are described and evaluated. The linear treand and weighted average normalizing procedures perform reasonably well, except in cases of dramatic price oscillations.     

Is love of nature in the US becoming love of electronic media? 16-year downtrend in national park visits explained by watching movies,playing video games,internet use,and oil prices

After 50 years of steady increase, per capita visits to US national parks have declined since 1988. This decline, coincident with the rise in electronic entertainment media, may represent a shift in recreation choices with broader implications for the value placed on biodiversity conservation and environmentally responsible behavior. We compared the decline in per capita visits with a set of indicators representing alternate recreation choices and constraints. The Spearman correlation analyses found this decline in NPV to be significantly negatively correlated with several electronic entertainment indicators: hours of television, (rs=-0.743, P<0.001), video games (rs=-0.773, P<0.001), home movies (rs=-0.788, P<0.001), theatre attendance (rs=-0.587, P<0.025) and internet use (rs=-0.783, P<0.001). There were also significant negative correlations with oil prices (rs=-0.547, P<0.025), foreign travel (rs=-0.452, P<0.05), and Appalachian Trail hikers (rs=-0.785, P<0.001). Income was significantly positively correlated with foreign travel (rs=0.621, P<0.005) but negatively correlated with national park visits (rs=-0.697, P<0.005). There was no significant correlation of mean number of vacation days, indicating available vacation time is probably not a factor. Federal funding actually increased during this period, and so was rejected as a probable factor. Park capacity was rejected as limiting since both total overnight stays and visits at the seven most popular parks rose well into the mid-1990s. Aging of baby boomers was also rejected as they are only now reaching retirement age, and thus during the period of visitation decline were still of prime family vacation age. Multiple linear regression of four of the entertainment media variables as well as oil prices explains 97.5% of this recent decline (r=0.975, multiple r2=0.950, adjusted multiple r2=0.925, SE=0.015, F=37.800, P<0.0001). We may be seeing evidence of a fundamental shift away from people's appreciation of nature (biophilia, Wilson 1984) to 'videophilia,' which we here define as "the new human tendency to focus on sedentary activities involving electronic media." Such a shift would not bode well for the future of biodiversity conservation.     

变革中的中国水资源管理

水资源短缺是世界面临的共同危机,是制约国民经济健康稳定发展的重要“瓶颈”,水资源的可持续利用已经成为经济社会可持续发展的基础性、战略性问题.缓解水资源供需矛盾的关键是加强水资源的管理.文章回顾了中国水资源管理制度的发展演变历程:只管工程的非正式水资源管理、行政命令为主的正式制度萌芽、取水许可管理和基于水权的正规制度管理等四个阶段.尽管在确立以流域管理和区域管理相结合的综合管理体制,建立以水量分配、取水许可、水资源论证为主要内容的水权管理制度和以全成本核算为原则的水价管理制度等方面成绩显著,水资源管理中仍存在水资源权属不清、水环境权得不到保障等问题.今后中国水资源改革,首先应继续深化水权改革,推动水权明晰化,建立水权交易制度;其次,健全水环境权的法律法制规范,提供相关的法律保障;最后,完善部门间的合作协调机制,真正实现对水的协同管理.     

Valuing the benefits of the urban forest: a spatial hedonic approach

This paper measures the benefits of the urban forest by examining its effect on housing prices. A Geographic Information System is used to develop a measure of the urban forest, the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index, from satellite imagery and to construct other variables from a variety of sources. Spatial hedonic housing price models for the Indianapolis/Marion County area are estimated. The models indicate that greener vegetation around a property has a positive, significant effect on housing price, holding everything else constant. This effect is dominated by measures at the neighborhood level. These findings indicate that property owners value the urban forest, at least in part, by the premium they pay to live in neighborhoods with greener, denser vegetation. These findings also indicate that public action to maintain and enhance the urban forest may be warranted. Planners and urban foresters can use these findings to inform public and policy debates over urban forestry programs and proposals.     

关于Ramsey模型及其改进的研究和启示

缺水已经成为我国经济发展和社会进步的重要制约因素之一．而对水价的制定到对水资源的利用效率起科十分关键的作用。本文通过对Ramsey模型及其改进的研究．得出如下启示．即实行阶梯水价既有利于实现杜会福利的优化，也可以起到节约水资源的效果。由于阶梯水价机制的设计可以为制度安排、资本进入和市场运行提供更大的弹性空间．因此．本文的政策含义是：在实施阶梯水价的背景下．政府只需对基量水价按边际成本的定价原则来严格规制．从而有效提升水务市场的运行效率。上述举措的优点在于：由于基量水价被严格规制．消费者的基本用水福利可以得到满足；超过基本用水量的水价和再生水价的相对放松规制会鼓励社会资本进入水务行业．使行业运营效率得到提高；国有资本退出水务行业使得政府财政负担减轻，同时．由于放松规制．政府的规制成本也得以降低。最终城市水务行业可以真正做到可持续的发展。     

The anatomy of three commodity booms

Three major commodity booms since the second world war are identified and analyzed. In all three, demand shocks predominated as triggers to the commodity price rises. The first boom, in 1950–51, was caused by the massive inventory buildup in response to the Korean war. The second, in 1973–74, was accentuated by widespread harvest failures and by OPEC's market management, which tripled the price of oil. The third boom started in 2004 and has not yet run its course. This time, the explosive growth of China's and India's raw materials demand has played a key role. The first two booms collapsed as the world economy went into recession and excessive inventories were sold out. The third boom may prove more durable since the world economy continues to expand briskly and commodity inventories have remained small.     

ECONOMIC INCENTIVES FOR WATER CONSERVATION ON THE MONTEREY PENINSULA: THE MARKET PROPOSAL1

ABSTRACT: Literatures on price‐based urban water conservation and on market‐based mechanisms to manage natural resources suggest that market‐based management of urban/suburban water use may be feasible. A market‐based proposal that emerged from a water shortage on California's Monterey Peninsula is presented. In the proposal, conservation incentives arise both from an ability among end‐users of water to reduce consumption and sell use‐rights to water, and from a penalty price for consumption in excess of one's use rights. The amount of water associated with use rights is capped and varies according to hydrological, meteorological, ecological, and other criteria. Requirements for further study of the proposal are listed, and the role that similar market‐based mechanisms could play in urban water management is discussed.     

人口收缩背景下资源型城市住宅价格的差异化响应及影响因素

以中国人口收缩现象突出的资源型城市为例,分析了2005年以来案例城市人口和住宅价格的时空演变特征,从住宅价格增幅和增速两个方面比较了人口收缩期内案例城市住宅价格的差异化响应特征,通过灰色关联模型分析了住宅价格差异化响应的影响因素。结果表明：（1）中国资源型城市人口收缩现象呈加剧态势,但人口收缩期内90%的资源型城市住宅价格呈上升态势,仅黑龙江东部、甘肃西北部、山西中部等少数资源型城市住宅价格小幅下降。（2）人口收缩背景下资源型城市住宅价格响应强度差异明显。相比之下,高强度响应等级以人口中期收缩的资源型城市、衰退型与成熟型煤炭资源城市、边境与省际边缘区资源型城市为主。（3）大部分资源型城市的人口收缩和住宅价格响应关联并不紧密,其他影响因素与住宅价格响应的关联相对更为紧密,并随着住宅价格响应强度的不同存在显著差异。     

基于家庭集群模式的高层住宅紧急疏散模型优化

为建立适用于我国高层民用住宅特点的紧急疏散模型,为评价高层住宅建筑安全性、指导人员逃生提供科学依据。通过问卷调查和实际观测,分析家庭疏散对象的心理特征,对传统紧急疏散模型进行优化,提出以家庭为单位的集群紧急疏散模型,并进行仿真。仿真模型以社会力模型为基础,通过分析和计算家庭内部成员与外部人员2种不同的"社会心理力",进而体现集群疏散的宏观特征。仿真结果分析了家庭集群疏散与传统紧急疏散,这2种情况下主要交通参数的差别,论证了家庭集群疏散模型的科学性和合理性。     

The impact of monetary liquidity on Chinese aluminum prices

By expanding Frankel and Rose's (2009) theoretical model to consider the interaction of commodity prices with both money liquidity and expectation formation, this paper empirically studies the long-run relationship and short-term dynamics between aluminum prices and money liquidity via Vector autoregressive (VAR) and Impulse Response Function methodologies. Our results show that: (1) a cointegration relationship between money liquidity and Chinese aluminum prices exists, and monetary liquidity positively significantly influences the price over long periods; (2) a structural change has been found during the 2008 Financial Crisis and the change of Chinese monetary policies; and (3) the negative impact of production capacity mechanism on aluminum prices coexists with the positive impact of financial asset returns mechanism, to allow for varied market expectations on aluminum prices within and outside China.