大尺度生态干扰风险评估技术方法及应用研究

为实现大尺度生态干扰高风险区域的快速、有效识别,从生态易损性、干扰易达性和资源易引性三个方面选取了9个指标,构建了生态干扰风险评估指标体系和评估模型,形成了完整的大尺度生态干扰评估技术与方法.利用该技术方法,本文评估分析了全国国土空间生态干扰风险状况、空间分布格局及其成因,并结合2017~2019年全国自然保护区人类活动监测数据和《全国主体功能区规划》中生态脆弱性评价结果对生态干扰风险评估结果进行了精度分析.结果显示：超过90%的自然保护区人类活动都集中在评估得到的中高风险区域;全国生态干扰风险主要以中风险为主、低风险次之、再次是较低风险、较高和高风险区域面积最少;其中较高和高风险区域主要分布在我国中西部和东北部的秦岭、祁连山、三江源和内蒙古草原等区域,生态干扰风险空间分布格局与生态系统结构与功能状况、地形与交通条件、资源潜力等因素具有较强相关性.     

人力和物质资本对农业经济增长的空间差异

为探索人力、物质两大资本对我国农业经济增长的作用差异,采用我国31个省份2001—2019年的数据实证分析了我国农业经济增长对两大资本的产出弹性。结果表明:人力、物质两大资本对农业经济的增长均具有显著促进作用,且人力资本作用更大。在差异性方面,东部地区、农业经济发展中等水平的地区受物质资本影响显著;中部地区、农业经济高水平的地区两大资本对农业经济均有显著促进作用,且人力资本作用更强;西部地区、农业发展低水平的地区两大资本对农业经济作用不显著,农业经济增长由物质资本驱动向人力资本驱动转变。     

珠三角城市群人居环境高质量发展时空演化特征及影响因素

综合运用熵权法、协调度研究了2010—2019年珠三角城市群人居环境高质量发展时空演化特征,并采用障碍度分析了该城市群影响人居环境高质量发展的障碍因子。结果表明:①珠三角城市群人居环境高质量水平呈上升的态势,空间分布呈“屋脊”式格局,区域差异明显。②在人居环境高质量五大准则层中,除生态环境外,其他四大准则层均表现为波动上升态势,协调度呈现高质量低协调和低质量高协调两种差异。③公共基础服务、社会经济和居住环境对珠三角城市群人居环境高质量发展障碍度较大。     

Large-sample-size assessment of socioeconomic predictors of community-level resource management occurrence

Community-level resource management efforts are cornerstones in ensuring sustainable use of natural resources. Yet, understanding how community characteristics influence management practices remains contested. With a sample size of ≥725 communities, we assessed the effects of key community (i.e., socioeconomic) characteristics (human population size and density, market integration, and modernization) on the probability of occurrence of fisheries management practices, including gear, species, and spatial restrictions. The study was based in Solomon Islands, a Pacific Island country with a population that is highly dependent on coastal fisheries. People primarily dwell in small communities adjacent to the coastline dispersed across 6 island provinces and numerous smaller islands. We used nationally collected data in binomial logistic regression models to examine the likelihood of management occurrence, given socioeconomic context of communities. In contrast to prevailing views, we identified a positive and statistically significant association between both human population size and market integration and all 3 management practices. Human population density, however, had a statistically significant negative association and modernization a varied and limited association with occurrence of all management practices. Our method offers a way to remotely predict the occurrence of resource management practices based on key socioeconomic characteristics. It could be used to improve understanding of why some communities conduct natural resource management activities when statistical patterns suggest they are not likely to and thus improve understanding of how some communities of people beat the odds despite limited market access and high population density.     

Improving protected area effectiveness through consideration of different human-pressure baselines

Previous assessments of the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) focused primarily on changes in human pressure over time and did not consider the different human-pressure baselines of PAs, thereby potentially over- or underestimating PA effectiveness. We developed a framework that considers both human-pressure baseline and change in human pressure over time and assessed the effectiveness of 338 PAs in China from 2010 to 2020. The initial state of human pressure on PAs was taken as the baseline, and changes in human pressure index (HPI) were further analyzed under different baselines. We used the random forest models to identify the management measures that most improved effectiveness in resisting human pressure for the PAs with different baselines. Finally, the relationships between the changes in the HPI and the changes in natural ecosystems in PAs were analyzed with different baselines. Of PAs with low HPI baselines, medium HPI baselines, and high HPI baselines, 76.92% (n=150), 11.11% (n=12), and 22.86% (n=8) , respectively, showed positive effects in resisting human pressure. Overall, ignoring human-pressure baselines somewhat underestimated the positive effects of PAs, especially for those with low initial human pressure. For PAs with different initial human pressures, different management measures should be taken to improve effectiveness and reduce threats to natural ecosystems. We believe our framework is useful for assessing the effectiveness of PAs globally, and we recommend it be included in the Convention on Biological Diversity Post-2020 Strategy.     

基于HFACS-BN模型的危险化学品事故人因路径分析*

为提高危险化学品安全管理水平,收集我国134起以人为主因的危险化学品事故,构建危险化学品事故的HFACS-BN模型,并基于贝叶斯网络对危险化学品事故中的人因路径及各因素灵敏度进行分析。研究结果表明:行为违规是导致事故的最主要不安全行为;在复杂路径中,环境因素和操作者状态具有较高的灵敏度,与其相关的风险认知与处理不当是阻碍事故预防的关键因素;在非复杂路径中,操作者状态与运行计划不当具有较高的灵敏度,其所涉及的监督违规、组织过程和组织氛围,是导致危险化学品事故的根本起点,并可依此分析事故直接原因和间接原因;操作者状态在2种路径中均表现出高灵敏度,因此化工企业在人员管理上要加强关注职工状态,减少不安全行为的出现。     

Comparative Toxicity of PCBs and PBDEs Using Human Cancer Cell Lines and Zebrafish Embryos

研究了6种多氯联苯(PCBs)3,3′,4,4′-四氯联苯(PCB77)、2,3,3′,4,4′-五氯联苯(PCB105)、2,3′,4,4′,5-五氯联苯(PCB118)、3,3′,4,4′,5-五氯联苯(PCB126)、2,3,3',4,4',5-六氯联苯(PCB156)和商业型混合多氯联苯Aroclor1254,两种多溴联苯醚(PBDEs)2,2′,4,4′-四溴二苯醚(PBDE47)、十溴二苯醚(PBDE209)对人类癌细胞生长和斑马鱼脱膜与不脱膜胚胎发育的影响.8种化合物均使用0.01、0.1、1.0、10μmol·L-14个浓度进行1~6d的暴露实验.结果表明,PBDE209在最高浓度10μmol·L-1下对结肠癌细胞HCT116(暴露3d后)和RKO(暴露5d后)具有显著的生长抑制作用,所有化合物均对乳腺癌细胞没有显著影响.相比之下,化合物对受精后5~6h(5~6hpf)的斑马鱼胚胎的毒性效应显得比较明显,而各化合物对胚胎的致畸和致死效应又不相同,其毒性强弱依次为PCB126≈PCB156>PCB1254(Aroclor1254)>PBDE47>PCB77>PCB105≈PCB118≈PBDE209.其中PBDE209在未脱膜暴毒后均无致畸与致死现象,脱膜暴毒后最高浓度才表现出显著意义的致畸作用,而PBDE47在最高浓度下可产生高达80%的致畸率,这说明胚胎绒毛膜具有有效阻挡大分子物质如PBDE209进入的作用.PCBs的毒性效应与其空间结构密切相关.如PCB126和PCB105具有相同的分子式,前者在1μmol·L-1下就引起了显著的致死和致畸效应,而后者即使在10μmol·L-1下也没有显著的效应.实验结果也说明不同类型的实验对象所展示的毒性效应并不相同,化合物对体外培养的细胞和发育中的胚胎具有不同的影响.     

四溴二苯醚对人甲状腺细胞功能的影响

为研究四溴二苯醚(BDE-47)对原代培养人甲状腺细胞功能的影响,分别用浓度为10-12、10-10和10-8mol·L-1的BDE-47处理原代人甲状腺滤泡上皮细胞(TEC)24h,采用化学发光酶联免疫检测法检测细胞上清液中甲状腺球蛋白(Tg)的浓度,半定量逆转录聚合酶链反应技术检测功能相关的Tg基因和双链复合蛋白8(Pax-8)基因的表达.结果表明,10-12、10-10mol·L-1暴露组Tg分泌量较对照组显著减少(p<0.05),而10-8mol·L-1BDE-47组Tg分泌量与对照组无显著性差异(p>0.05).甲状腺功能相关Tg基因和Pax-8基因的表达量随BDE-47浓度的增加而显著降低(p<0.05),呈明显的剂量-效应关系.以上结果提示,BDE-47对离体培养的原代人甲状腺细胞的功能具有抑制作用,甲状腺功能相关Tg基因和Pax-8基因的表达下调可能是其作用机制之一.     

和田河年径流变化规律研究

根据和田河实测年径流资料,应用小波分析、R/S分析等多种方法,探讨了在气候变化和人类活动影响下,和田河年径流变化规律及其成因。结果表明,和田河年径流存在减少趋势,且具有一定的持续性。通过径流变化的影响因素分析表明,上游出山口处两支流的径流变化主要受气温升高的影响,下游入塔里木河处除受降水减少的影响外,主要是由于人类对水土资源开发进程的加快,人类活动是其径流变化的主要原因。     

Driver Injury Risk Variability in Finite Element Reconstructions of Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) Frontal Motor Vehicle Crashes

Objective: A 3-phase real-world motor vehicle crash (MVC) reconstruction method was developed to analyze injury variability as a function of precrash occupant position for 2 full-frontal Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) cases.

Method: Phase I: A finite element (FE) simplified vehicle model (SVM) was developed and tuned to mimic the frontal crash characteristics of the CIREN case vehicle (Camry or Cobalt) using frontal New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) crash test data. Phase II: The Toyota HUman Model for Safety (THUMS) v4.01 was positioned in 120 precrash configurations per case within the SVM. Five occupant positioning variables were varied using a Latin hypercube design of experiments: seat track position, seat back angle, D-ring height, steering column angle, and steering column telescoping position. An additional baseline simulation was performed that aimed to match the precrash occupant position documented in CIREN for each case. Phase III: FE simulations were then performed using kinematic boundary conditions from each vehicle's event data recorder (EDR). HIC15, combined thoracic index (CTI), femur forces, and strain-based injury metrics in the lung and lumbar vertebrae were evaluated to predict injury.

Results: Tuning the SVM to specific vehicle models resulted in close matches between simulated and test injury metric data, allowing the tuned SVM to be used in each case reconstruction with EDR-derived boundary conditions. Simulations with the most rearward seats and reclined seat backs had the greatest HIC15, head injury risk, CTI, and chest injury risk. Calculated injury risks for the head, chest, and femur closely correlated to the CIREN occupant injury patterns. CTI in the Camry case yielded a 54% probability of Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ chest injury in the baseline case simulation and ranged from 34 to 88% (mean = 61%) risk in the least and most dangerous occupant positions. The greater than 50% probability was consistent with the case occupant's AIS 2 hemomediastinum. Stress-based metrics were used to predict injury to the lower leg of the Camry case occupant. The regional-level injury metrics evaluated for the Cobalt case occupant indicated a low risk of injury; however, strain-based injury metrics better predicted pulmonary contusion. Approximately 49% of the Cobalt occupant's left lung was contused, though the baseline simulation predicted 40.5% of the lung to be injured.

Conclusions: A method to compute injury metrics and risks as functions of precrash occupant position was developed and applied to 2 CIREN MVC FE reconstructions. The reconstruction process allows for quantification of the sensitivity and uncertainty of the injury risk predictions based on occupant position to further understand important factors that lead to more severe MVC injuries.