基于AHP-SLIM的航空器维修人误概率确定

人误是造成民用航空维修差错的主要因素。由于缺少实际的数据,对航空维修行业人为失误发生的规律进行研究是必要的,但是规律研究主要依赖于该领域专家的判断,很难确保一致性。为了克服这个困难得到更加准确的评估,本文将层次分析法同成功似然函数结合起来估计造成飞机/发动机/附件损坏的人误概率。该方法确定了航空器维修人员的安全态度、知识和技能、计划和监管、信息沟通等因素,对人误的影响程度以及飞机/发动机/附件损坏中常见人误的发生概率。计算结果表明,操作/试验时最容易发生飞机/发动机/附件损坏,并且提出加强组织和监管、严格按章办事等解决措施。     

铅污染事故生态环境损失评估——以台州铅蓄电池企业为例

国内铅污染事故频繁发生,造成了严重的生态环境污染和人体健康损害。通过采用市场价值法、人力资本法和恢复费用法,对铅污染的生态环境损失进行了全面评估。以台州典型的铅蓄电池企业为例进行研究,铅污染总损失为121．83万元,其中土壤修复及监测费用占77.1％;人体健康损失占18．9％;农作物种植损失占4．0％。     

南四湖及主要入湖河流表层沉积物重金属形态组成及污染研究

采用BCR（SM&T）方法对南四湖及主要入湖河流丰水季节表层沉积物中Cr、Cu、Mn、Ni、Pb、Zn 6种重金属元素的酸提取态、可还原态、可氧化态及残渣态进行了连续提取,分析了各水体单元表层沉积物重金属元素的形态组合特征、人为污染状况及潜在生态风险.研究结果表明,泗河、京杭运河、洙赵新河、府河上游、上级湖南部湖区及下级湖区表层沉积物中Cr、Cu、Ni、Zn以残渣态为主,其含量可占到该元素总量的80%～90％,人为污染程度较弱;老运河、府河入湖口、白马河表层沉积物中Cr、Cu、Ni、Zn的残渣态含量明显降低,而可提取态（酸提取态、可还原态、可氧化态）含量可增至80％以上,其中以可氧化态、酸提取态为主,人为污染程度较重;各水体单元表层沉积物中Pb、Mn以残渣态和可氧化态为主,其含量占Pb、Mn含量的95％、70％左右,基本未受人为污染.随着表层沉积物中有机物的矿化分解及环境条件的改变,老运河、府河入湖口、白马河等重金属人为污染较重的沉积物中Cr、Cu、Ni、Zn的可氧化态、酸提取态及可还原态可发生活化,具有较高的潜在生态风险.     

Variable-Thermoinsulation Garments With a Microprocessor Temperature Controller

This paper presents the concept of active variable thermoinsulation clothing for users working in low temperatures. Those garments contain heating inserts regulated by a microprocessor temperature controller. This paper also presents the results of tests carried out on the newly designed garments.     

黄浦江铅的人体健康水质基准研究

铅是我国水环境质量监控的重点污染物之一.我国成人和儿童铅中毒事件时有发生,制定铅的人体健康水质基准在我国有着特殊意义.本文以黄浦江流域为研究对象,采集并分析流域水样和不同营养级的鱼样本中铅含量,结合文献调研,确定了人体暴露参数、生物蓄积系数等相关本土参数,推导出该流域铅的基于人体健康风险水质基准值为13.45μg·L~(-1).虽然该值略高于我国和大部分发达国家的现行饮用水标准(10μg·L~(-1)),但明显低于我国地表三类水环境标准(50μg·L~(-1)),提示黄浦江流域水体铅污染需要进一步加强防控.另外,通过引入铅的敏感人群儿童对基准推导进行了优化,并应用IEUBK模型(The Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic Model,综合暴露吸收生物动力学模型)对儿童血铅含量进行预测分析.研究发现引入了铅的敏感人群儿童后,推导得出基于人体健康的水质基准值为1.718μg·L~(-1),提示黄浦江流域的儿童在日常饮用水的选择上,应选择铅浓度比饮水标准更低的饮用水.本研究提出本土铅的基于人体健康风险水质基准值,对我国基准技术指南案例研究以及铅相关水质标准修订等具有重要的科学意义和参考价值.     

农地分配制度不是农地冲突的根本原因——基于湖北和湖南农村问卷调查的实证分析

农地冲突是当前我国农村经济发展和城镇化进程中的普遍问题,在—些地方相当突出,严重影响了农村的社会稳定和经济发展,探讨农地冲突的原因有助于化解农村矛盾及构建和谐繁荣的农村社区。本文利用笔者在湖北和湖南两省收集到的数据,应用Logit概率模型实证分析了农地分配制度、非农就业收入及其差距和人力资本等可能引起农地冲突的因素的影响。与通常的看法不同,本文并没有发现农地分配制度是农地冲突的显著诱因,原因可能在于我国的农地在改革初期是按人口或劳动力平均分配的,其后的调整大多也是经农民自主协商按照市场规则完成的,并没有引起农民的明显不满,因而也就没有成为农地冲突的诱因。本文的研究结果还表明,非农就业收入、非农就业收入差距和家庭人力资本对农地冲突的影响显著,非农就业收入越低,其差距越小,家庭人力资本越多,农地冲突发生的概率越大,是农地冲突的主要诱因。这表明非农就业收入越少,农民通过非农就业增加家庭收入的隧道效应越弱,对农业收入的依赖性越大,农地就越重要,农地冲突越容易发生;家庭男性成员越多,家庭社会地位越高,在打架斗殴和上访诉讼中越占优势,农地冲突也越容易爆发。因此,为了减少农地冲突,应采取切实措施,促进农村劳动力向非农部门转移,加强农村法制建设,限制丛林行为。     

Runoff variation affected by precipitation change and human activity in Hailiutu River basin,China

For recent years,runoff generation and hydrological processes in Hailiutu River basin have been greatly changed by climate change and human activity,especially water and soil conservation construction.In this study,the trends in precipitation,evapotranspiration(ET)and river runoff as well as the effects of precipitation change and human activity on runoff variation have been studied.The results showed that during 1960-2000,annual precipitation and river runoff,monthly precipitation and ET in September and October as well as monthly runoff in all months showed a significant decrease.In addition,peak flow and base flow had a large decrease.Under the joint influence of precipitation change and human activity,the mean annual runoff decreased by 35 million m3 from the baseline period(1960-1985)to the change period(1986-2000),which accounted for 60.9%and 39.1%of the total runoff decrease,respectively.Precipitation change played a primary role in the decrease of annual runoff whereas human activity,particularly water and soil conservation construction,also had remarkable impacts on runoff variation.     

Chest injuries of elderly postmortem human surrogates (PMHSs) under seat belt and airbag loading in frontal sled impacts: Comparison to matching THOR tests

Abstract

Objective: The goal of the study was to develop experimental chest loading conditions that would cause up to Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2 chest injuries in elderly occupants in moderate-speed frontal crashes. The new set of experimental data was also intended to be used in the benchmark of existing thoracic injury criteria in lower-speed collision conditions.

Methods: Six male elderly (age >63) postmortem human subjects (PMHS) were exposed to a 35?km/h (nominal) frontal sled impact. The test fixture consisted of a rigid seat, rigid footrest, and cable seat back. Two restraint conditions (A and B) were compared. Occupants were restrained by a force-limited (2.5?kN [A] and 2?kN [B]) seat belt and a preinflated (16?kPa [A] and 11?kPa [B]; airbag). Condition B also incorporated increased seat friction. Matching sled tests were carried out with the THOR-M dummy. Infra-red telescoping rod for the assessment of chest compression (IRTRACC) readings were used to compute chest injury risk. PMHSs were exposed to a posttest injury assessment. Tests were carried out in 2 stages, using the outcome of the first one combined with a parametric study using the THUMS model to adjust the test conditions in the second. All procedures were approved by the relevant ethics board.

Results: Restraint condition A resulted in an unexpected high number of rib fractures (fx; 10, 14, 15 fx). Under condition B, the adjustment of the relative airbag/occupant position combined with a lower airbag pressure and lower seat belt load limit resulted in a reduced pelvic excursion (85 vs. 110?mm), increased torso pitch and a substantially lower number of rib fractures (1, 0, 4 fx) as intended.

Conclusions: The predicted risk of rib fractures provided by the THOR dummy using the C_max and PC Score injury criteria were lower than the actual injuries observed in the PMHS tests (especially in restraint condition A). However, the THOR dummy was capable of discriminating between the 2 restraint scenarios. Similar results were obtained in the parametric study with the THUMS model.     

Desires and Management Preferences of Stakeholders Regarding Feral Cats in the Hawaiian Islands

Feral cats are abundant in many parts of the world and a source of conservation conflict. Our goal was to clarify the beliefs and desires held by stakeholders regarding feral cat abundance and management. We measured people's desired abundance of feral cats in the Hawaiian Islands and identified an order of preference for 7 feral cat management techniques. In 2011 we disseminated a survey to 5407 Hawaii residents. Approximately 46% of preidentified stakeholders and 20% of random residents responded to the survey (1510 surveys returned). Results from the potential for conflict index revealed a high level of consensus (86.9% of respondents) that feral cat abundance should be decreased. The 3 most common explanatory variables for respondents’ stated desires were enjoyment from seeing feral cats (84%), intrinsic value of feral cats (12%), and threat to native fauna (73%). The frequency with which respondents saw cats and change in the perceived abundance of cats also affected respondent's desired abundance of cats; 41.3% of respondents stated that they saw feral cats daily and 44.7% stated that the cat population had increased in recent years. Other potential environmental impacts of feral cats had little affect on desired abundance. The majority of respondents (78%) supported removing feral cats from the natural environment permanently. Consensus convergence models with data from 1388 respondents who completed the relevant questions showed live capture and lethal injection was the most preferred technique and trap‐neuter‐release was the least preferred technique for managing feral cats. However, the acceptability of each technique varied among stakeholders. Our results suggest that the majority of Hawaii's residents would like to see effective management that reduces the abundance of feral or free‐roaming cats. Deseos y Preferencias de Manejo de las Partes Interesadas con Respecto a los Gatos Ferales en las Islas Hawaianas.     

Evaluating mortality rates with a novel integrated framework for nonmonogamous species

The conservation of wildlife requires management based on quantitative evidence, and especially for large carnivores, unraveling cause‐specific mortalities and understanding their impact on population dynamics is crucial. Acquiring this knowledge is challenging because it is difficult to obtain robust long‐term data sets on endangered populations and, usually, data are collected through diverse sampling strategies. Integrated population models (IPMs) offer a way to integrate data generated through different processes. However, IPMs are female‐based models that cannot account for mate availability, and this feature limits their applicability to monogamous species only. We extended classical IPMs to a two‐sex framework that allows investigation of population dynamics and quantification of cause‐specific mortality rates in nonmonogamous species. We illustrated our approach by simultaneously modeling different types of data from a reintroduced, unhunted brown bear (Ursus arctos) population living in an area with a dense human population. In a population mainly driven by adult survival, we estimated that on average 11% of cubs and 61% of adults died from human‐related causes. Although the population is currently not at risk, adult survival and thus population dynamics are driven by anthropogenic mortality. Given the recent increase of human‐bear conflicts in the area, removal of individuals for management purposes and through poaching may increase, reversing the positive population growth rate. Our approach can be generalized to other species affected by cause‐specific mortality and will be useful to inform conservation decisions for other nonmonogamous species, such as most large carnivores, for which data are scarce and diverse and thus data integration is highly desirable.