梁式桥震害及其影响因素分析

为了研究梁式桥的震害及其影响因素,基于近年来国内外几次大地震中梁式桥震害调查资料,对梁式桥震害现象进行分类并分析其原因,从地震烈度、建设年代、结构体系、地震次生地质灾害等4个方面对桥梁震害的影响分别进行了分析,得到了关于梁式桥地震破坏影响因素、破坏机理等方面的认识。     

A Bird’s Eye View of the Malheur Wildlife Refuge Occupation: Nonhuman Agency and Entangled Species

In January 2016, armed militants occupied the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge, demanding an end to government control of the Refuge and other similarly protected public lands. Public discourse about the occupation highlights ongoing tensions around land use, property rights, and government overreach. The discourse foregrounds human animal concerns and all but erases nonhuman animal agency. This essay considers nonhuman animal agency and the entanglement of humans, nonhumans, and the land as seen in the occupation and surrounding discourse. We draw from critical animal studies and feminist posthuman theory to examine how discourses of the occupation produce and reinforce a sense of human exceptionalism that elides a more useful and nuanced understanding of human–nonhuman–land relatedness and agency. The analysis shows how, in the case of the Malheur occupation, occupiers and critics alike rely on discourses of “othering” towards both nonhuman animals and other humans. We take a “birding” perspective on the occupation to show how the webs of relationality that connect humans, nonhumans, and the land might be activated as an antidote to destructive discourses of human exceptionalism.     

多环芳烃的健康风险评价以及暴露参数的敏感性分析

在暴露情景假设和评估模型的确定下,有必要对污染场地的风险计算结果有影响的模型参数开展敏感性分析,以便在开展土壤健康风险评估工作时,提高评估的准确性和科学性,节约修复成本。以上海市某污染场地为例,对模型参数敏感性开展敏感性分析。贡献率结果显示,经口摄入土壤和皮肤接触土壤为场地表层污染土壤的主要致癌风险暴露途径。敏感性分析结果显示,致癌风险与体重呈反向变化,当体重参数减小时,暴露风险将向不利的方向移动。当体重参数在大范围减小时,敏感程度较高。致癌风险与暴露周期、暴露频率、每日摄入土壤量、暴露皮肤表面积、皮肤表面土壤粘附系数呈同向变化,当这些参数增大时,暴露风险将向不利的方向移动;其中暴露周期和暴露频率的敏感程度中等。上海市敏感用地下苯并(a)蒽、苯并(b)荧蒽、茚并(1,2,3-c,d)芘、苯并(a)芘、二苯并(a,h)蒽风险控制值分别为0.726、0.726、0.726、0.072 6、0.072 6 mg/kg。     

新安江水库主要入流营养盐的时间变化特征及其影响因素分析

流域上游来水是水库的重要补给源,其水质状况直接决定下游受纳水库的生态系统状态和功能,研究入库来水营养盐的时间演变特征并揭示其变化的影响因素,为水库水质管理提供重要科学依据。以新安江水库安徽辖区为研究区,分析了2007—2016年期间流域入库水质的变化特征,探讨水文、气象等环境条件对入库水质的影响。研究结果表明,2007年以来,COD_Mn和透明度表现为下降趋势,TN、TP、NH₃-N呈明显上升趋势,来水营养水平上升,但叶绿素a呈下降趋势。流域降水带来的水文情势的变化对来水水质起重要作用,来水中N、P营养盐丰水期显著高于枯水期,同流域降水过程显著正相关。     

建筑施工安全生产人力资源调配研究

调查研究了施工企业安全生产管理人力资源需求,分析了施工企业安全管理人力资源调配中存在的岗位和能力不匹配问题,探讨了形成这一现状的原因,并提出"直跃式"晋升方式用以改善人力资源错配问题。     

Information presentation compatibility in a simple digital control panel design: eye-tracking study

Various designs of typical digital control panels were analyzed experimentally from both the effectiveness and efficiency points of view. Subjects performed information comparison tasks aimed at keeping vehicle velocity at the same level. The experiment involved two versions of speedometers for displaying current and target velocities (clock-face and digital). The stimuli were also differentiated by the target velocity value (20, 50 and 80?km/h) and the correct response type (increase or decrease). Subjects’ performance results along with the eye-tracking data were qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed for all 24 experimental conditions.     

A community driving under the influence (DUI) study of declining arrests

Abstract

Objective: Recent news reports in 2016 indicated that across Miami–Dade County, Florida, driving under the influence (DUI) arrests have decreased substantially. The objective of this research was to determine the reasons for the decline in DUI arrests from 2009 to 2016. Are there fewer impaired drivers on the roads? Can DUI enforcement and prosecution be improved?

Methods: The following methods were used in this study: (1) Analysis of existing DUI arrest and crash data; (2) conducting and analysis of a telephone survey of reported knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors concerning impaired driving; (3) conducting and analysis of roadside surveys on the roads on weekend nights in Miami–Dade County; (4) information from focus group discussions with police and prosecutors in Miami–Dade County; and (5) a comprehensive review of the best DUI prevention practices and enforcement strategies used across the country.

Results: DUI arrests decreased 64% in Miami–Dade County between 2009 and 2016. This was a significantly larger decrease than has occurred in the State of Florida as a whole (34%) and in the United States (29%) over the same time period. The decline was not due to any decline in DUI behavior in the county.

Conclusions: Based upon the data and information gathered in this project, the following actions were recommended for Miami–Dade County: (1) County police chiefs need to find ways to overcome law enforcement apathy toward DUI enforcement and persuade their traffic enforcement officers to be proactive rather than reactive when it comes to identifying and making impaired driving stops. (2) County police agencies should join forces to conduct more sobriety checkpoints. Checkpoints are safer for both the police and the drivers going through them and serve as a general deterrent to impaired driving. (3) An interagency DUI task force or team of 5 to 7 officers should be established within the county. These officers would be solely dedicated to DUI enforcement and paid for by each individual agency or under a grant from the state or federal government.     

基于博弈论与可拓学的非正常接发列车人因风险评价

为更加准确且全面地对非正常条件下接发列车作业人因风险进行评价,提出基于博弈论与可拓学的人因风险评价模型。在工作人员认知机理的基础上,构建认知行为模型,考虑到人因风险指标数据的特性,利用博弈论的思想将由AHP法得出的主观权重与由熵值法得到的客观权重进行最优组合,克服了单一赋权法的不足;引用可拓学原理,建立多级可拓评价模型,修正了风险评价的偏差,使人因风险评价更加准确。实例计算表明:此方法运用到铁路非正常条件下接发列车作业人因风险评价是有效的,且可为科学制订风险控制措施提供依据。     

基于人因可靠性的间歇装置SIL分析与改进

IEC 61508和IEC 61511等标准针对连续工艺装置提出了安全仪表系统安全完整性等级评估方法。但对于间歇装置的SIL评估,受人因因素影响水平并未明确,且没有提出相应计算模型。以某六氟磷酸锂间歇生产装置典型SIS为例,采用HAZOP结合LOPA方法对其进行风险分析,在明确间歇生产装置存在人员中毒、窒息及燃烧爆炸风险的基础上,确定并验证其安全仪表系统的SIL,再依据间歇生产装置人工依赖性高,即部分安全仪表系统未接入自动联锁且需人工手动触发的特点,建立人因可靠性模型,来分析人因可靠性对安全仪表系统SIL的影响,并进行改进研究。研究结果表明:人因因素对安全仪表系统SIL有显著影响;可通过改变SIS元件冗余结构、测试策略并结合改进人因管理措施来提高SIL。     

有色金属国际价格波动的影响因素研究

有色金属作为国际上流通量较大的大宗产品,近年来其价格的频繁剧烈波动受到学界和业界的高度关注。从有色金属国际贸易的交易量数据看,中国、美国、巴西等20个国家是有色金属国际贸易的主体,贸易量较大的是铜、铝、铅、锌四种有色金属。本文选取了国际贸易中铜、铝、铅、锌四种有色金属的主要进口国和出口国,在已有研究的基础上,从供需、实体经济和货币金融三个维度选取变量,运用国家之间构成的面板数据,建立PVAR模型,分析四种有色金属价格的波动及其影响因素;通过铜、铝、铅、锌四种有色金属价格的脉冲响应函数,比较分析铜、铝、铅、锌四种有色金属价格波动影响因素的不同。研究发现:(1)铜、铝、铅、锌四种有色金属价格波动均受国内生产总值和货币供应量的影响,供需因素对有色金属价格产生长期的影响,货币供给量对有色金属价格的影响短暂而剧烈;(2)国内生产总值和贸易量与铜价的波动密切相关,货币供应量和消费者价格指数与铝、铅、锌价格的波动密切相关;(3)有色金属主要贸易国的各个变量对铜、铝、铅、锌价格波动的贡献程度不同。铜贸易国的贸易量对铜价波动的贡献度要高于其他有色金属贸易国家;铝、铅、锌贸易国家的金融因素对铝、铅、锌价格的影响要强于铜贸易国家。最后,本文从进口国角度对中国有色金属进口提出了建议:中国是铜、铝、铅、锌四种有色金属的最大进口国,应密切关注有色金属价格走势,建立健全有色金属价格的实时监测和预警机制,加快对有色金属价格波动的反应速度,利用金融手段避险趋利。