考虑人为因素的可靠性评估

统计数据表明,系统的可靠运行不可忽略人为误操作造成的故障,该故障发生率有时甚至超过设备本身导致的系统故障发生率。将人为因素与设备自身因素造成的系统故障进行对比,分析人为因素造成系统故障后的特点,可得出人为因素的可靠性参数。根据解析法和模拟法的相关理论计算考虑人为因素的可靠性指标,可以看出考虑人为因素的计算结果更加符合实际运行特点,便于相关人员采取对策,保障系统的安全运行。     

航空维修人为差错影响因素分析中的模糊层次分析法

航空维修中的人为差错影响因素分析对于预防事故发生至关重要,如何定量分析及辨识出主要影响因素是亟待解决的问题。为此,结合航空维修实际,提出运用群组模糊层次分析法对人为差错影响因素进行量化排序和分类,归纳细化了影响因素层次体系,并给出了分析计算流程。以一起由维修人为差错所引发的航空事故为例进行了实证分析,结果表明:该方法能够辨识出航空维修中人为差错产生的主要影响因素,进而对制订最优事故预防方案,控制和减少该类事故的发生有积极意义。同时该方法对其他行业中的人为差错主要影响因素辨识有着一定的参考价值。     

商业区与轻轨站厅开口处防火分隔失效时人员安全疏散评估

针对相连接部位开口处的防火分隔失效时人员能否安全疏散进行评估,研讨人员安全疏散评估过程中所采用的定性分析和定量分析方法。以某商场与轻轨站相连接开口处为例,考察当防火分隔耐火性能失效后,商场内人员和轻轨站的人员能否从火灾中得以安全疏散;通过火灾模拟的方法,采用BuildEvac和FDS软件分别对火灾时人员疏散状况和火灾烟气的蔓延情况进行人员疏散模拟和火灾烟气运动模拟。根据模拟计算结果,对商场内人员和轻轨站人员的安全性进行详细分析和讨论,从而得出实例评估结论:当排烟系统正常工作时,即使防火分隔(防火卷帘)失效,火场环境对商业区和轻轨站的人员生命安全在整个疏散过程中均不会构成威胁,所有人员都能安全疏散到安全地点。     

煤矿安全生产中人的行为影响因子系统动力学(SD)仿真分析

在构建影响人的安全行为因素因果关系的基础上,运用系统动力学(SD)理论和方法,对影响人的安全行为关键因素进行动态预测,并通过仿真计算、对比分析安全投入增加对系统安全水平的影响。应用该方法建立的煤矿生产中人的安全行为指标水平模型,以求证安全投入与人的安全行为水平的相关性,为煤矿安全管理决策提供一种新的思路,亦有助于政府和煤矿企业科学地明确安全投入方向,降低人因事故率,提高煤矿生产的安全水平。     

劳动防护服号型设置的研究

本文对劳动防护服的号型设置进行了分析与研究。《劳动防护服号型》是各类劳动防护服制作中广泛使用的基础性国家标准,依据当前劳动者人体尺寸的统计分析和企业劳动防护服生产供应实际情况,科学合理设置服装号型,以符合国家标准的科学性、实用性以及增强劳动防护服的舒适性功能。     

黄河下游历史泥沙灾害的宏观特征及其与流域因素和人类活动的关系（Ⅱ）：—人类活动、历史地震及地形因子的影响

以历史上黄河下游的决溢频率为泥沙灾害的代用指标,研究了人类活动,历史地震及地形因子对黄河下游历史泥沙灾害的影响,研究表最,人类活动是影响黄河下游泥沙灾害的重要因素,历史上人口的增加使下游决溢频率增大,人口低谷与决溢频率的低值时段相应,历史上农牧交错带的南移与下游决溢频率的减小相伴发生。北移则导致决溢频率的增大,历史地震对黄河下游历史泥沙灾害有一定的影响,黄河下游历史泥沙灾害表现出明显的空间分异,这种分异与平原地貌条件的沿程变化有密切的关系。     

Governing the Borderlands: Decoding the Power of Aid

This article examines aid practice, that is, the public-private contractual networks that link donor governments, UN agencies, military establishments, NGOs, private companies and others, as a relation of global liberal governance. In order to fulfil this function, such networks embody what could be called the 'securitisation' of international assistance. Based upon ideas of human security and ameliorating the effects of poverty and vulnerability reduction, aid is now seen as playing a direct security role. Rather than being concerned with relations between states, the primary aim of this security paradigm is to modulate and change the behaviour of populations within them. In doing so, it is able to exploit the opportunities afforded by privatisation. At the same time, however, aid as security is confronted by its own particular problem of 'governing at a distance'; how can calculations made by leading states be transformed into actions at the global edge when a multitude of private and non-government implementors now intervene? The article concludes by examining the contribution of risk analysis to solving this problem and, especially, the development of new contractual regimes based around technical standardisation, benchmarking and performance auditing. Through such technologies, metropolitan states are learning how to manage the public-private networks of aid practice and, as a result, to govern the borderlands in new ways.     

Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

广州市居民家庭室内灰尘中传统和新型阻燃剂与塑化剂的污染特征及健康风险评估

近年来,随着阻燃剂多溴联苯醚(PBDEs)和以邻苯二甲酸酯(PAEs)为代表的传统型塑化剂(LPs)的逐步禁用或限用,有机磷系阻燃剂(PFRs)等新型阻燃剂及替代型塑化剂(APs)的生产和使用呈逐年增长的趋势,其环境污染特征和人体暴露健康风险值得引起广泛关注.目前,灰尘已广泛用于室内环境中PBDEs、PFRs和LPs等半挥发性有机污染物(SVOCs)的污染特征评估,而关于室内灰尘中APs的污染特征则鲜有报道.本研究以广州市42户普通居民家庭为研究对象,采集家庭室内灰尘并分析了PFRs、PBDEs、LPs和APs的含量及组成特征.结果表明,PFRs、PBDEs、LPs和APs在室内灰尘中均有广泛检出,其含量分别为593.28～11531.56、13.45～27029.13、40494.83～1154497.16和15365.19～1013352.51 ng·g^-1.大多数家庭中,PFRs和部分APs在灰尘中的含量呈现高于PBDEs和LPs的特征,PFRs和APs等新型污染物的人体暴露健康风险需引起高度关注.采用暴露模型评估人体经灰尘摄入和皮肤接触对目标污染物的日均暴...     

Global Effects of Local Human Population Density and Distance to Markets on the Condition of Coral Reef Fisheries

Coral reef fisheries support the livelihoods of millions of people but have been severely and negatively affected by anthropogenic activities. We conducted a systematic review of published data on the biomass of coral reef fishes to explore how the condition of reef fisheries is related to the density of local human populations, proximity of the reef to markets, and key environmental variables (including broad geomorphologic reef type, reef area, and net productivity). When only population density and environmental covariates were considered, high variability in fisheries conditions at low human population densities resulted in relatively weak explanatory models. The presence or absence of human settlements, habitat type, and distance to fish markets provided a much stronger explanatory model for the condition of reef fisheries. Fish biomass remained relatively low within 14 km of markets, then biomass increased exponentially as distance from reefs to markets increased. Our results suggest the need for an increased science and policy focus on markets as both a key driver of the condition of reef fisheries and a potential source of solutions. Efectos Globales de la Densidad de Población Humana Local y la Distancia a los Mercados sobre la Condición de Pesquerías en Arrecifes de Coral