分布式水文模型的参数率定及敏感性分析探讨

参数率定与敏感性分析是分布式水文模型应用和发展中的难点问题,论文对当前典型的、应用比较成功的全局最优化参数率定和敏感性分析方法进行归纳和分析,包括:遗传算法(Genetic Algorithm)、SCE-UA算法(Shuffled Complex Evolution)、贝叶斯方法(Bayesian Method)、RSA方法(Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis)、GLUE方法(Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation)等等。并对计算机自动优化方法和人工参数调试方法的利弊进行讨论,展望了分布式水文模型的参数率定与敏感性分析的发展方向。     

Revised estimates and projections of down syndrome births in the United States,and the effects of prenatal diagnosis utilization, 1970–2002

The objectives of this study were to: (1) calculate revised estimates and projections of United States annual Down syndrome (DS) births for 1970–2002, and (2) estimate the effects of amniocentesis on these baseline DS birth projections. Three models of amniocentesis utilization among 30–34 and ≧ 35-year-old women were considered. The recently revised Census Bureau birth projections, and new single year maternal age DS risk rates estimated from a 1970–1983 Ohio data set, were used. Data from all three Census Bureau projection series were analysed; series II was considered in depth since it is consistent with recent fertility levels. Assuming no use of amniocentesis, total estimated DS births dropped from about 4770 in 1970 to 4120 in 1980 (a 14 per cent decline), but are projected to a plateau of about 5100 by the year 1990 (a 24 per cent increase). DS births to women ≧ 35 would increase dramatically from about 1050 in 1980 to 1900 in 2000 (an 81 per cent increase). Assuming 1983 Ohio prenatal diagnosis ratios for women aged 30–34 (1.7 per cent) and ≧ 35 (23.4 per cent) are used nationally, an annual reduction of about 7 per cent of DS births in 1986 and 9 per cent in 2002 would result. Fifty and 70 per cent utilization among women 30–34 and 235, respectively, would reduce DS births by about 33 per cent in 1986 and 38 per cent in 2002. Therefore, if the projected increase in DS births is to be averted, utilization of prenatal diagnosis by ≧ 30-year-old women must increase substantially.     

遥感和地理信息系统在水文模型中的应用

在讨论了水文模型的分类系统之后 ,论述了当今 (半或准 )分布式水文模型迅速发展的原因 ,展示了遥感 (RS)和地理信息系统 (GIS)在水文模型研究中的广阔应用前景。     

Hydrological eco-service of rubber plantations in Hainan Island and its effect on local economic development

The impacts of economic forest on global environmental change(GEC) are one of the hot issues in environmental study. Based on the 3-year observation data and 40-year climate data, GEC and analysis of the hydrological dynamic characteristics of rubber plantations and estimate of the water balance in the rubber plantations in Hainan Island were made. The results showed that the rainfall intercepted by thecanopy of the plantations accounted for 11.4-5 % of the annual rainfall, the total runoff for 23.71%, the total evaporation and transpiration for 63.24%, the soil moisture storage for 1.6%. Analysis of the 40year rainfall data in the 19 counties of Hainan Island during 1951—1990 showed that the large-scale substitution of the natural vegetation with the rubber plantations had no significant effect on the local rainfall in Hainan Island. The main reasons are (1) 80% of the rainfall in Hainan is brought by typhoons; (2) the proportion of 11.6% rubberplantations in total forest coverage in Hainan is not enough to influence the local rainfall in Hainan Island; and (3) although the rubberplantation is artificial vegetation, it has the similar function to the tropical rain forest. Analysis of the total water resource and I‘otal GDP ofHainan in 1997 showed that the economic benefit resulted from the water resource was 1.0 RMB Yuan/m3 . The value of hydrological of therubber plantation in Hainan was 113.9 million RMB Yuan/a when compared with the tropical rain forest. The paper reaches conclusion that the hydrological eco-service function of rubber plantation has been enhanced after transformed from natural vegetation, which includes the natural service and powerful social service.     

苍洱地区居址环境的历史变迁

根据民族学和考古学资料进行的综合研究，可将苍洱地区居址环境划为４个历史变迁时期：４０００多年前的先民们居住在沿海拔２５００～２２００米一线的一些向阳避风的苍山台地上。海拔２２００～２０００米一线的苍山脚下为汉晋时期先民们的聚居点。海拔２０００米左右，沿滇藏公路一线的白族村落大致在唐宋南诏大理国时期形成。海拔１９７５米左右，今洱海边的白族村落大多数在元明清时期形成。其趋势是从高处往低处下移，随苍山上升，洱海水位下降，利用滩地形成新的居民群。其形成的间隔时间越来越短，加强洱海保护是迫切的任务。     

Tree-ring analysis for the assessment of anthropogenic changes and trends

Investigation of Pine (Pinus sylvestris L.)annual radial increment (width of annual tree rings) was carriedout in the surroundings of one of the largest pollution sources inLithuania – Jonava Nitrogen Fertilizers Plant. The main objectiveof investigation was to analyse different sides of anthropogenictransformations of tree-ring series in the polluted environment:changes in tree growth intensity; variance changes in tree-ringseries; changes in the relations with natural external factors.Three different periods of tree reaction to the environmentalpollution were singled out – fertilization period, depressionperiod and recovery period since annual emissions were essentiallyreduced. The variance of tree-ring series has increased severaltimes in the polluted environment. Reaction of trees to the impactof climatic factors (temperature, precipitation) has changedsignificantly in the polluted environment and their sensitivity hasalso increased.     

Mesoscale ecohydrological modelling to analyse regional effects of climate change

Hydrological processes and crop growth were simulated for the state of Brandenburg (Germany) using the hydrological/vegetation/water quality model SWIM, which can be applied for mesoscale river basins or regions. Hydrological validation was carried out for three mesoscale river basins in the area. The crop growth module was validated regionally for winter wheat, winter barley and maize. After that the analysis of climate change impacts on hydrology and crop growth was performed, using a transient 1.5 K scenario of climate change for Brandenburg and restricting the crop spectrum to the three above mentioned crops. According to the scenario, precipitation is expected to increase. The impact study was done comparing simulation results for two scenario periods 2022–2030 and 2042–2050 with those for a reference period 1981–1992. The atmospheric CO₂ concentrations for the reference period and two scenario periods were set to 346, 406 and 436 ppm, respectively. Two different methods – an empirical one and a semi-mechanistic one – were used for adjustment of net photosynthesis to altered CO₂. With warming, the model simulates an increase of evapotranspiration (+9.5%, +15.4%) and runoff (+7.0%, +17.2%). The crop yield was only slightly altered under the climate change only scenario (no CO₂ fertilization effect) for barley and maize, and it was reduced for wheat (–6.2%, –10.3%). The impact of higher atmospheric CO₂ compensated for climate-related wheat yield losses, and resulted in an increased yield both for barley and maize compared to the reference scenario. The simulated combined effect of climate change and elevated CO₂ on crop yield was about 7% higher for the C₃ crops when the CO₂ and temperature interaction was ignored. The assumption that stomatal control of transpiration is taking place at the regional scale led to further increase in crop yield, which was larger for maize than for wheat and barley. The regional water balance was practically not affected by the partial stimulation of net photosynthesis due to higher CO₂, while the introduction of stomatal control of regional transpiration reduced evapotranspiration and enlarged notably runoff and ground water recharge.     

温室效应与全球变化（二）：应当限制哪些温室气体的排放？

自有大气层以来就有温室效应。工业革命以来，大量人为温室气体的排放使温室效应增强，全球海平面上升和气温上升。人类对这一过程的认识还有很大的不确定性。本文综述了到目前为止对这一问题进行科学研究的结论，指出在控制温室效应和全球变化的问题上，最困难也是最基本的难题是减少二氧化碳的排放。     

COMPUTER APPLICATION TO DOUBLE-MASS ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Double-mass analysis for checking consistency of a hydrological record is considered to be essential before taking it for analysis purpose. Because of increasing computer application in hydrological analyses, in the present paper, a simple and efficient method for the double-mass checking has been developed. The problem has been formulated in FORTRAN IV language and the basic steps and a computer output of the program are presented in a flow chart and a table.     

Satellite image analysis of human caused changes in the tundra vegetation around the city of Vorkuta,north-European Russia

In this paper we present what kind of human impacted changes can be found in dwarf birch (Betula nana) dominated shrub tundra vegetation around the large industrial complex of Vorkuta in the north-European Russian tundra. Using fieldwork data and Landsat TM satellite image we could identify two impact zones: (1) Pollution zone (150-200 km2). In this zone most of the lichen species are absent. Changes in vegetation communities' species composition in all main plant groups are obvious. Willows especially are more dominant than in the unpolluted sites. (2) Slight pollution/disturbance zone (600-900 km2). Here vegetation changes are mainly similar but less so than the changes in the first zone. Particularly, the amount of herbs and grasses is increased when compared to unpolluted areas. The pollution zones are spatially connected to the main emission sources in the area. Zones spread furthest to the northeast, matching the prevailing winds during winter.