长江流域耕地-粮食-人口复合系统的动态分析及调控途径

选取反映耕地-粮食-人口复合系统变化的10个总量和均量指标．通过1978—2004年各指标在长江流域及其上、中、下游变化过程的动态分析。发现人口增加、国家宏观政策、粮食价格以及经济非农化和城市化过程是影响流域耕地-粮食-人口复合系统变化的主导因素；长江流域粮食生产在全国的主体地位逐渐下降。而且自2000年以来．人均粮食占有量也不断下降。耕地压力指数不断加大。基于此种变化过程及其原因分析，从保证区域粮食自给、保持系统动态平衡以及协调好耕地、粮食、人口三者之间关系等方面入手．站在保障流域粮食安全、确保国家经济社会可持续发展战略高度．提出长江流域耕地-粮食-人口复合系统调控战略途径。     

Regional analysis of global change impacts: Concepts, tools and first results

The paper introduces an approach for the analysis of global change impacts on river basins or regions. This approach is quite general and can be transferred to any region or river basin of interest on earth. The first application of the approach was in the Elbe river basin, with primary focus on the hydrologic model part and on the integration of crop growth and nitrogen dynamics. Finally, concepts for the integration of socio-economic aspects in the analysis are introduced.     

Quantification of land use/land cover changes in Pearl River Delta and its impact on regional climate in summer using numerical modeling

This study quantified land use/land cover (LULC) changes in Pearl River Delta (PRD) of South China and its impact on regional climate over the last two decades. The LULC change analyses were accomplished by applying a change detection method to a set of Landsat imagery and ancillary data acquired from 1970s to 2000. The results indicate that the urban expansion is the prevailing LULC change in the PRD. Impact of LULC change on regional climate was simulated by using a mesoscale climate model. Two different land cover datasets circa 1990 and 2000 were input to the model to investigate the impact of urbanization on regional weather and climate condition in summer 2005. The simulation results show that rapid urban expansion can substantially alter regional climate conditions in the PRD region including monthly mean temperature, precipitation, moisture, and surface heat fluxes.     

Fauna-associated changes in soil biochemical properties beneath isolated trees in a desert pastureland of India and their importance in soil restoration

Biodiversity conservation and management of natural resources are the best options to restore and increase productivity of degrading pastureland in dry areas. Hence, arthropod abundance, organic matter, respiration, and dehydrogenase activity were measured in canopy zone soil of Prosopis cineraria (PC), Acacia nilotica (AN), Zizyphus nummularia (ZN), Capparis decidua (CD), and Acacia senegal (AS) associated with grasses with a view to establish interrelation for productivity enhancement of pastureland. Pure grass bock outside tree canopy was control plot. Acari, Myriapoda, Coleoptera, Isoptera, Collembola, and other soil arthropods were the major soil faunal groups. Integration of tree in pastureland enhanced population of soil arthropod by 9–65-fold in May 2001 and 8–13-fold in August/September as compared with control. The trends of changes in soil organic matter (SOM), soil respiration (SR), and dehydrogenase activity (DHA) were similar to the changes in soil arthropod population, indicating the role of soil fauna in facilitating biochemical processes and soil fertility. Two, eight, and nine times greater SOM, SR, and DHA, respectively, in silvipastoral system than the values in control suggest the beneficial effects of trees on improvement in biochemical processes and thus biodiversity in pastureland, as supported by negative values of relative tree effects (RTE). Microbial activities were highest in the ZN system, which had highest abundance of soil arthropods. In the other systems, CD and AS systems showed greater soil arthropod abundance and biological activities than with the PC and AN systems. Therefore, Z. nummularia-, C. decidua-, and A. senegal-based silvipastoral systems and related soil fauna may be promoted for enhancement of biological activity and productivity of pastureland in desert. The strategy may be adopted for developing a sustainable pedoecosystem in a region of the world where agriculture is notoriously difficult.     

Prioritizing Agricultural Lands for Conservation Buffer Placement Using Multiple Criteria1

Qiu, Zeyuan, 2010. Prioritizing Agricultural Lands for Conservation Buffer Placement Using Multiple Criteria. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1-13. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00466.x Abstract: Although conservation buffers are multifunctional, the current conservation buffer planning strategies tend to use a single criterion, most frequently a hydrological or soil condition indicator, to guide conservation buffer placement. This study presents a watershed planning approach that prioritizes agricultural lands for conservation buffers based on multiple selection criteria and applies the approach to Raritan Basin in central New Jersey. The multiple selection criteria include soil erodibility, hydrological sensitivity, wildlife habitat, and impervious surface rate. These criteria capture the conservation buffers’ benefits in reducing soil erosion, controlling runoff generation, enhancing wildlife habitat, and mitigating stormwater impacts, respectively. An expert panel was used to identify and define the section criteria, review the measured values of those criteria, and develop the classification scales that assign the class score to each criterion. The prioritization is based on the summation of the criteria class scores. About one-third of agricultural lands are prioritized for conservation buffers in Raritan Basin. The total program cost of converting those prioritized agricultural lands to conservation buffers in Raritan Basin is estimated to be between $54.8 and 102.9 million depending on the composition of installed conservation buffer practices.     

Tree-ring stable isotopes and historical perspectives on pollution - An overview

Hydrogen (δ²H), carbon (δ¹³C), oxygen (δ¹⁸O) and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) isotopes of tree rings growing in field conditions can be indicative of past pollution effects. The characteristic δ¹³C trend is a positive shift generally explained by invoking closure of stomata, but experimental studies suggest that increased rates of carboxylation could also generate such trends. In many cases the δ¹⁸O and δ²H values decrease in trees exposed to pollution and exhibit inverse coinciding long-term trends with δ¹³C values. However, some trees exposed to diffuse pollution and experimental conditions can show an increase or no δ¹⁸O change even if δ¹³C values increase. These diverse responses depend on how stress conditions modify physiological functions such as stomatal conductance, carboxylation, respiration, and perhaps water assimilation by the root system. Recent studies suggest that δ¹⁵N changes in trees can be caused by soil acidification and accumulation of anthropogenic emissions with isotopic signals deviating from natural N.     

博乐市PM10与TSP相关性分析

选用博乐市2010年大气PM10与TSP监测数据月均值,分析了PM10与TSP在大气中的浓度变化相关性趋势、沙尘暴天气对其相关性的影响以及PM10占TSP中的浓度比,并得出PM10与TSP的浓度变化趋势除沙尘暴天气干扰外非常相似,具有很好的相关性。     

山东省生态环境质量现状及动态变化研究

以2005年和2009年美国陆地卫星(Landsat TM)影像为基本数据源,利用遥感与GIS技术对山东省生态环境状况进行了监测,并依据《生态环境状况评价技术规范(试行)》(HJT 192-2006),对山东省生态环境质量现状及动态变化趋势进行了评价。结果表明,山东省生态环境质量总体处于一般水平;2005—2009年山东省生态环境质量状况基本稳定,局部地区有所改善。     

丹江口水库流域氮素时空分布特征

为全面了解丹江口水库流域氮素污染状况,对库区26个点位及10条主要入库河流入库口处的表层水样进行了丰水期、平水期、枯水期采样与监测,探讨了氮素时空分布特征。入库口总氮检出范围为1.31~10.96 mg/L,其中泗河和神定河入库口总氮最高。总氮为库区水质主要限制因子,年均总氮质量浓度为1.13~2.71 mg/L;汉江库区整体上总氮污染水平略高于丹江库区,且与丹江库区相比,汉江库区受点源排放的影响较大。10条入库河流总氮的总年均输入量为63 347.31 t/a,其中汉江的总氮输入量最大;入库河流总氮控制的关键在于溶解性有机氮和硝酸盐氮的控制。     

1960~2010年长江流域极端降水的时空演变及未来趋势

本文采用长江流域内分布较均匀、无缺测站点的1960~2010年逐日降水资料,借助趋势和突变分析、R/S分析和水文频率分析等方法,研究该流域极端降水的时空演变特征和未来趋势。结果表明：（1）长江流域区域平均气候平均降水量（PAV）、简单日降水强度（PINT）、强降水贡献率（PQ95）、强降水阈值（PF95）、最大1日-10日降水量（PX1D-PX10D）基本均呈上升趋势,中下游各极端降水指数均大于上游,同时,中下游的各指数年际变化比上游更剧烈。（2）PAV与PF95的空间分布类似,但前者在流域中部地区下降、两侧上升,而后者为中部上升、两侧下降;PINT与PQ95的空间分布相似,均为大部分地区呈上升趋势,仅西北部下降。PX1D-PX10D总体上以上升为主,但随着持续时间的增长,下降的区域有明显的扩大,而上升的区域有明显的缩小。（3）未来长江流域极端降水将以现有趋势继续发展,并将以上升趋势为主,流域洪涝灾害风险加大。（4）遂宁站PX1D、安化站PX10D极端降水的频率分析表明,直接采用整体数据计算设计降水量会使结果偏于不安全,对于较长重现期的设计降水表现更显著,因此对于极端降水量发生显著变化的情况需要深入研究,探讨更好的设计降水估计方法。