陕西未来50年区域旱涝气候预测研究

用陕西省近526a的旱涝等级资料,根据超低频气候振动理论和尺度对应原理,通过旱涝气候对天体物理、太阳活动等周期,特别是ENSO对天体物理显著敏感的周期响应关系的物理统计分析,选取周期概率显著的周期,进行外延叠加集成预测,给出了未来50a陕西省不同区域旱涝趋势的预测结果．     

南苏格兰森林生态系统水分循环的模拟

本文描述了一个根据起源于南苏格兰爱丁堡郊区沼泽地的人工林建立的数学模型。该模型把群落的整个水分过程抽象地看作有5个分室——乔木、草本、沟、沟坡与沟底组成的生态系统;借助于数学公式和计算机技术,对包括截流、表面流、土壤贮藏水与地下水等现象在内的水文过程以定量的形式进行了模拟;模型中输入降雨和蒸发量,输出径流量。文中以1986年系统的水文过程作为一个例子,并利用模拟值与真值对模拟效果进行了检验:以天为单位的模拟效率为93.5％,以2h为单位的模拟效率为85.1％。该模型揭示了森林水分循环的机理,仅利用降雨和蒸发量就能估计径流量。它将有助于了解起源于沼泽地人工林的水文效应。     

Population growth, economic growth, technology changes in relation to environmental changes──A theoretical modelling analysis of environmental changes

Ｐｏｐｕｌａｔｉｏｎｇｒｏｗｔｈ，ｅｃｏｎｏｍｉｃｇｒｏｗｔｈ，ｔｅｃｈｎｏｌｏｇｙｃｈａｎｇｅｓｉｎｒｅｌａｔｉｏｎｔｏｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔａｌｃｈａｎｇｅｓ──Ａｔｈｅｏｒｅｔｉｃａｌｍｏｄｅｌｌｉｎｇａｎａｌｙｓｉｓｏｆｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔ...     

流域水文过程对湖泊酸化的影响—ILWAS模型在老虎岭水库的应用

应用美国ILWAS酸雨模型,研究了南宁市老虎岭水库流域在酸雨输入条件下流域水文过程,特别是入湖总径流的构成,对湖水酸碱状态和酸化进程的影响.结果表明,酸雨通过集水区土壤的流动路径是影响地表水酸化的最重要因素之一.     

典型草原区土壤水分变化特征及影响因素分析

为了揭示典型草原区土壤水分时空变化规律,探讨主要影响因子,利用内蒙古两个站点近20年土壤水分观测资料和相应的气象资料,采用数理统计方法,分析了该区域土壤水分变化的基本事实和统计特征及影响因子,得出:年内土壤水分基本呈双峰曲线变化,春季化冻(04-08)到入冬前(10-18)的土壤水分平均相差5.3mm,大多数年份土壤水分年内可以达到平衡;年际变化有每隔7～8年走势发生改变的趋势;垂直向水分变化主要发生在60cm以上土层中,近几年深层变幅有增大的倾向;蒸降差与土壤水分变化呈相反趋势,生长季蒸降差对土壤水分的干扰最大.样本站0～50cm土层的最大容水量为85mm和135mm,多数时期土壤相对含水量平均在40%～60%以上,有较强的调蓄能力.     

应用于水文预报的优化BP神经网络研究

利用广东省滨江流域的水文观测资料，建立了以前期降水量为预报因子、以水位为输出的BP人工神经网络水文预报模型。首先采用了合理的方法进行样本组织，进而利用最优子集回归技术进行输入因子的确定，然后进行了不同隐层节点数、不同转移函数、不同训练算法的组合试验，确定了应用于水文预报中的优化BP神经网络：网络结构为8-9-1；转移函数的组合方式为tansig-线性函数；训练算法为采用evenberg-Marquardt(Lm)算法。为便于精度分析，还采用了最优子集回归模型作了研究。结果表明，优化BP网络模型无论在拟合精度还是在预测精度上都高于最优子集模型。总的来说BP网络是一种精度较高的水文预测模型。     

基于单元格网的STREAM分布式水文模型及其应用——以太湖上游西苕溪流域为例

STREAM模型是基于单元格网的分布式水文模型，可以利用易于获取的地理信息，揭示气候变化及下垫面改变对水循环的复杂影响。选择太湖上游西苕溪流域为研究区，采用1979～1999年的26个降水站实测序列和不同时段的土地利用数据，应用GIS流域分析方法与空间插值技术建立300 m的流域格网信息，并通过BLAISE脚本语言实现STREAM模型与GIS的集成，应用1979～1999年水文站实测序列对模型进行率定和验证。结果显示月径流量和年径流量模拟与实测值吻合良好，1980～1988年模型率定期，月径流量的确定性系数为078，年径流量的确定性系数为086，各年平均相对误差仅为6％；1989～1999年模型验证期，月径流量的确定性系数为075，年径流量的确定性系数为082，各年平均相对误差为95％。研究证实模型有较强的预测能力，在流域管理与决策中具有较好的应用前景。     

Interannual variation in productivity of steppe pastures as related to climatic changes

The results of long-term stationary research on the assessment of aboveground phytomass and soil moisture dynamics in a steppe pasture are presented. An analysis of annual and interannual variation in meteorological parameters over the study period has been performed, and, on this basis, the dependence of productivity on climatic changes has been determined.     

The Impact of Changes of Property Rights on Farmland Use： An Empirical Study of China during Transition

In China, farmland property rights characterized by the household-responsibility system （HRS） have been improved since the reform and opening-up. The rights of use, transfer and gain become more stable, authorized and complete. This paper firstly analyzes the impact on farmland productivity, which comes from the improvement of farmland property rights. Then, an economet-ric model is built to test the above analysis. It concludes that changes of property rights will affect farmland performance in China. In the end, some policy implications are explored for fur-ther reforms.     

Trends in Vegetation Degradation in Relation to Land Tenure, Rainfall, and Population Changes in Peddie District, Eastern Cape, South Africa

Spatial and temporal variations in vegetation are examined in relation to land tenure, population increase, and rainfall variation in a part of Peddie district, Eastern Cape. Sequential aerial photographs between 1938 and 1988 are analyzed to determine trends in vegetation and population change in three different land-tenure units. The areal extent at each date of four distinct vegetation categories is determined using PC ARC/INFO GIS. Long-term annual rainfall trends for the area are analyzed and juxtaposed with vegetation changes. Extensive ground-truthing exercises are carried out to verify the present condition of vegetation condition in terms of cover and species composition. Differences in land-tenure systems are discerned as the dominant factor controlling variations in vegetation degradation. The study also reveals that neither population changes nor rainfall variations can explain the observed trends in vegetation degradation. Earlier injudicious land-use practices, sustained since the turn of the last century, may provide plausible explanations for the trends and present status of vegetation degradation in the area.