MODEL ACCURACY IN SNOWMELT-RUNOFF FORECASTS EXTENDING FROM 1 TO 20 DAYS1

ABSTRACT: This paper examines the performance of snowmelt-runoff models in conditions approximating real-time forecast situations. These tests are one part of an intercomparison of models recently conducted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Daily runoff from the Canadian snowmelt basin Illecille. waet (1155 km², 509–3150 m a.s.l.) was forecast for 1 to 20 days ahead. The performance of models was better than in a previous WMO project, which dealt with runoff simulations from historical data, for the following reasons: (1) conditions for models were more favorable than a real-time forecast situation because measured input data and not meteorological forecast inputs were distributed to the modelers; (2) the selected test basin was relatively easy to handle and familiar from the previous WMO project; and (3) all kinds of updating were allowed so that some models even improved their accuracy towards longer forecast times. Based on this experience, a more realistic follow-up project can be imagined which would include temperature forecasts and quantitative precipitation forecasts instead of measured data.     

导线覆冰大跨越输电塔-线体系动力特性分析

大跨越输电塔-线体系对导线覆冰等环境荷载反应敏感,容易发生动态倒塌破坏。目前对线路覆冰下输电塔的振动问题虽然取得了一定的研究成果,但是线路覆冰下输电塔的动力特性规律尚需进一步研究。本文以实际工程为例,建立了大跨越输电塔-线体系数值分析模型,分析了导线划分精度对输电塔-线体系动力特性的影响,并在此基础上分析了导线覆冰对输电塔-线体系动力特性的影响。研究结果表明:导线划分精度对输电塔振动影响较大;导线覆冰不仅影响输电塔振动频率,而且对输电塔振型也有较大影响,尤其是对输电塔横担的振动影响更大。     

正态信息扩散法在确定河冰抗压强度概率分布中的应用

将正态信息扩散法应用于小样本条件下河冰抗压强度概率密度函数的确定,建立了小样本条件下河冰抗压强度概率分布,并结合K-S检验法和河冰抗压强度试验数据,分析了该方法的合理性。结果表明,本文方法可以较好解决小样本情况下河冰抗压强度概率分布的确定问题,正态信息扩散分布更加接近河冰抗压强度的真实分布,并优于经典分布的拟合方法。     

悬浮结晶法冷冻处理喹乙醇生产废液

采用悬浮结晶法处理喹乙醇生产废液,考察了成冰率(冰晶融化后的体积占原水总体积的百分比)对废液COD、氨氮、TN和电导率去除效果的影响。在一级冷冻成冰率45%的条件下,经过三级冷冻处理后,三级出水的COD、氨氮、TN和电导率的去除率分别为99.4%、98.7%、98.5%和98.2%,一级浓缩液的COD、氨氮和TN的浓缩比分别为1.6、1.5和1.5;在一级冷冻成冰率80%的条件下,每一级出水的各项指标的去除率均有所下降,三级出水的COD、氨氮、TN和电导率的去除率分别为98.6%、98.3%、97.1%和95.9%,但一级浓缩液的浓缩比明显提高,COD、氨氮和TN的浓缩比分别为2.7、2.2和2.4。成冰率为80%时一级浓缩液的热值为7 449 J/g,在焚烧过程中可以依靠自身热量维持燃烧,不需要添加辅助燃料,减少焚烧处理的成本。     

Societal implications of a changing Arctic Ocean

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid change: sea ice is being lost, waters are warming, coastlines are eroding, species are moving into new areas, and more. This paper explores the many ways that a changing Arctic Ocean affects societies in the Arctic and around the world. In the Arctic, Indigenous Peoples are again seeing their food security threatened and cultural continuity in danger of disruption. Resource development is increasing as is interest in tourism and possibilities for trans-Arctic maritime trade, creating new opportunities and also new stresses. Beyond the Arctic, changes in sea ice affect mid-latitude weather, and Arctic economic opportunities may re-shape commodities and transportation markets. Rising interest in the Arctic is also raising geopolitical tensions about the region. What happens next depends in large part on the choices made within and beyond the Arctic concerning global climate change and industrial policies and Arctic ecosystems and cultures.     

Shine a light: Under-ice light and its ecological implications in a changing Arctic Ocean

The Arctic marine ecosystem is shaped by the seasonality of the solar cycle, spanning from 24-h light at the sea surface in summer to 24-h darkness in winter. The amount of light available for under-ice ecosystems is the result of different physical and biological processes that affect its path through atmosphere, snow, sea ice and water. In this article, we review the present state of knowledge of the abiotic (clouds, sea ice, snow, suspended matter) and biotic (sea ice algae and phytoplankton) controls on the underwater light field. We focus on how the available light affects the seasonal cycle of primary production (sympagic and pelagic) and discuss the sensitivity of ecosystems to changes in the light field based on model simulations. Lastly, we discuss predicted future changes in under-ice light as a consequence of climate change and their potential ecological implications, with the aim of providing a guide for future research.     

冰情预报的投影寻踪回归模型

将投影寻踪回归模型应用于黑龙江上游江段开河日期的预报,并与GA-BP模型预报的结果进行了对比分析.结果表明,投影寻踪回归模型预报的精度及稳定性较高,其性能优于常用的GA-BP模型.预报采用理论分析与多元逐步回归分析相结合的方法筛选预报因子,既可确保不遗漏基本影响因子,又能剔除对目标值影响不显著的因子,用于确定冰情预报的预报因子较为适宜.     

Use of Synthetic Aperture Radar for Selecting Alaskan Lakes for Winter Water Use1

Abstract: Water resources are limited in many areas of the North Slope, Alaska, particularly during winter. Water is used by the oil industry for ice road construction and maintenance, drilling and facility operations, and potable water supplies. The coastal plain between Teshekpuk Lake, in the National Petroleum Reserve‐Alaska (NPR‐A) and the Colville River has numerous shallow lakes, but further south in the northern foothills of the Brooks Range, and east to the Canning River, lakes are fewer. While many oil and gas lease sales have been conducted, or are proposed, access to the leases may be limited because of the lack of available water for ice road construction. Ice roads are the main means by which exploration is conducted in the Arctic, putting a stress on freshwater bodies that do not freeze to the lakebed in winter. Lakes that do not freeze to the lakebed also serve as overwintering habitat for fish. The purpose of this paper is to report on the potential distribution of water bodies that may provide overwinter water in selected areas from Teshekpuk Lake to the Canning River. The project used synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to search for the presence of water in lakes in March 2006. In the Kuparuk and Canning SAR images, 52 and 61% of lakes were frozen to their beds by March 2006, accounting for 49 and 57% of the lake area in these study regions. Conversely, only 2% of the lakes in the Teshekpuk region were frozen to the bottom by March 2006. Unfrozen water was more available because of deeper and more numerous lakes in the Teshekpuk Lake region (west) than in the Canning River area (east). While only specific SAR tiles were analyzed herein, the method will be a useful tool for land managers who seek to evaluate the potential for ice road construction across the Arctic.     

The Potential Use of Synthetic Aperture Radar for Estimating Methane Ebullition From Arctic Lakes1

Abstract: Arctic lakes are significant emitters of methane (CH₄), a potent greenhouse gas, to the atmosphere; yet no rigorous quantification of the magnitude and variability of pan‐Arctic lake emissions exists. In this study, we demonstrate the potential for a new method using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to detect methane bubbles in lake ice to scale up whole‐lake measurements of CH₄ ebullition (bubbling) to regional scales. We estimated ebullition from lakes, which is often the dominant mode of lake emissions, by mapping the distribution of bubble clusters frozen in early winter ice across surfaces of seven tundra lakes and one boreal forest lake in Alaska. Applying previously measured ebullition rates associated with four distinct classes of bubble clusters found in lake ice, we estimated whole‐lake emissions from individual lakes. The percent surface area of lake ice covered with bubbles (R² = 0.68) and CH₄ ebullition rates from lakes (R² = 0.59) and were correlated with radar return values from RADARSAT‐1 Standard Beam mode 3 for the tundra lakes, suggesting that with appropriate scaling and consideration for variability in lake‐ice conditions, this technique has the potential to be used for estimating broader‐scale regional and pan‐Arctic lake methane emissions.     

Effects of Water Withdrawal From Ice‐Covered Lakes on Oxygen,Temperature, and Fish1

Abstract: In northern regions, large volumes of water are needed for activities such as winter road construction. Such withdrawals, particularly from small lakes, can reduce oxygen concentrations and water levels, potentially affecting aquatic organisms. Withdrawal limits have been developed by regulatory agencies, but are largely theoretical. Water withdrawal thresholds were tested in two small lakes by removing 10% and 20% of their respective under‐ice volumes and comparing oxygen parameters, temperature, over‐wintering habitat, and northern pike (Esox lucius) abundance to reference conditions. Because of a milder winter, oxygen parameters were elevated in reference lakes in the period following withdrawal compared to the prewithdrawal period. The 10% withdrawal resulted in a ?0.2 m shift in the oxygen concentration profile at 4 mg/l in that lake, but had no effect on total volume‐weighted oxygen, or volume of over‐wintering habitat. In contrast, the 20% withdrawal caused 0.7 m reduction in the oxygen concentration profile at 4 mg/l compared to the previous year, a 26% decline in the volume‐weighted oxygen concentration, and a 23% reduction in the volume of over‐wintering habitat compared to prewithdrawal conditions. Water temperatures were slightly (≤ 10%) colder in the upper strata in the year following the withdrawal in both withdrawal and reference lakes. Northern pike abundance was not impacted by water withdrawals in either of the lakes. The results of this study show that the effects of water withdrawal on the parameters investigated reflected the characteristics of the lakes, and would therefore be expected to vary from lake to lake. Policy development to mitigate impacts must therefore reflect the site‐specific nature of water withdrawal.